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And a trackable event.

Update

yeah I agree, probably not far from the truth. I'd feel better with a closed ml low traveling over the south coast, but this whole thing looks like a mess - which lends me to believe ml's will act accodingly, including precip shield- with more warming than some of these isothermal to 128 depictions we saw.

A large area of light snow across the north... with a narrow zone of heavy snow near the gradient. That feels like the right outcome. It's crazy that gradient remains in question and will have such a big effect on sensible impacts.

Those snow totals through Saturday morning certainly appeared to fall off south of Stowe. Checking Bolton’s snow report, they weren’t reporting any new snow, so I wasn’t planning on making any turns, but my younger son and his friend were looking to get out for some runs with me and my wife, so we ended up heading out for a morning session. It turns out that the resort did pick up at least a couple of inches of snow based on what we saw, but the accumulations varied a lot with the wind and perhaps their standard measurement spots didn’t hold onto any of the snow to a degree that they felt confident enough to report it. The resort is working on beefing up the manmade base on their main Bear Run beginner route on the lower mountain, so there was no beginner terrain in play yesterday, and I think that helped to keep the number of visitors lower than they might have been. Conditions on their main Sherman’s Pass/Beech Seal route were decent, with some manmade snow of course, but some natural mixed in and a nice amount of loose snow that gave you something to carve on. The relatively low skier traffic kept the morning groomed surfaces lasting longer than they typically might, but by late morning the skier traffic was starting to pick up, and you could tell that the surfaces were getting a little firmer. Bolton Valley has been putting up some impromptu mini terrain parks near the base these past couple of weekends with just a feature or two, and it seems like folks are having a lot of fun with that. They’re short enough that you can literally hike back up in 20 seconds and hit the features again. My son had fun with the one they have set up near the Mighty Mite and made a couple runs down the rails on our way out.

Some of the locals seem to be all in on the dynamics being close enough to the coast to ignore the ocean temps?

DCA: -4.4 NYC: -3.1 BOS: -3.3 ORD: -4.7 ATL: -2.5 IAH: -0.7 DEN: -0.9 PHX: +0.8 SEA: +2.3 DCA: 15.6 NYC: 28.6 BOS: 41.1 ORD: 30.3 DTW: 45.5 BUF: 101.5 DEN: 66.2 SEA: 4.7 BTV: 93.3

BWI: 19.8 DCA: 12.9 IAD: 18.6 RIC: 9.0 ——————— SBY: 8.9

Refs totally fucking the commanders on the last drive

Oh' I know...

CMC decent solution.

Not that this means much coming from this layman, but...you are going to become a main anchor here very soon

ggem is warm, too. 0c h85 is north of here

Gfs was way north and now it’s the southernmost solution switching places with euro. Seem to remember them flipping a lot like that last year

Yea, low level cold air can take forever to scour out. The issue is upstairs. That hp is just racing east, so there’s not gonna be much resistance to the waa. I think an inch stat starter would be a win in this setup.

Heavy Freezing Rain at 30 deg isn't actually a huge problem on the surface as most make it out to be. Too much latent heat release happening. Trees / Power-lines are a concern, but you really need to be 28 or below for stuff to stick in moderate to heavy rain. The worst case is <28 and light rain, that's when you're in trouble. I think we're seeing a trend north and west with the WAA. If the surface holds at 30, might be few isolated areas that are a mess, if it gets to 32, we'll be fine disappointed.

Well the latest GFS run opted for shredding the southern shortwave entirely by moving it out as the northern bowling ball crushed it. So making this an addendum to the og post but it appears that instead we need to have constructive interactions between the northern and southern energy to get a storm. So really I think watching for a stronger piece of energy out of the south which would help pull the northern stream energy souther is needed. Additionally, a stronger but further south piece of the NS diving in would be beneficial. Either way I just don't see a great likely way all of this breaks our way as we have to contend with a southern energy split, northern stream interaction, and trying to keep the 50/50 in a better position.

Per OHX,we are right now today+3.2 AN,Nov isnt a dry month either here and we are below avg 1.76" https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BRO&product=CF6&issuedby=BNA

Canadian still unusable ?

Gfs no storm next Friday for us. South/flat

495 does seem to be the cutoff for many storms. Growing up a mile from the ocean in Peabody, we were often on the wet side of storms, but I couldn't tell you how many storms were mainly white in Lowell (including the 2008 ice storm) where it was just rain only a few miles SE of here. Once again, it seems like 495 will be where the R/S line is. I think Ray will do much better in Methuen than his old place in Wilmington.

Just rots over 495.

NOP usually means rain in the lowlands up to Rt 2

models, model, models! so many models! eons ago there were two models that were the go to models. I think it was the AVN and the Eta model. I remember folks talking about the E/A rule (i believe it was called). If these two models agreed on snow, then it was a sure bet. Later the models changed and increased in number, but when the Euro came to America, it rapidly took over the kingship of models to trust most. Now with so many models printing out such a variety of possibilities when it comes to snow in a given area, I've had to put all my chips into the Ji rule: whichever model shows the least amount of snow is the one that verifies. I find if I put my faith in the snowless model, it usually verifies, and if not, I get the excitement of a surprise snow! According to the Ji rule, I should expect no snow for the next two storms, despite the fact that some of the majors are showing some snow for my area just north of Baltimore. Going with the least snow solution is depressing, but there is the thrill of a surprise, if indeed, the least snowy model is wrong and we get a decent snow. Hate to say it, but Ji is becoming my HM! He will never, ever take the place of usetobe, however. usetobe is always the EF Hutton of this board. When he says its gonna snow, it snows! All that said, my faith in the flakes/forecasts really rests in the many mets. who post on this board. Their insight, thoughts and ways of understanding the synoptics and interpret the models is really of extreme value. What a blessing it is to be able to learn from so many trained mets., forecasters, and expert teachers! And if I am too old to learn it, I just appreciate the knowledge shared by our experts!! Keep on doing what you do so well!!! There will always be onlookers (like me) who will gain from your insight.

GFS looks just a smidge colder near here than 18z but at this point it’s noise unless it does it again another couple of cycles.