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This has a chance to be a monster, true coastal instead of a hybrid SWFE coastal combo, need some ticks NW or it's game over for WOR folk.

Pic?

Just wondering why they included the 14 from and the 18! From Monessen and New Stanton area? Gotta be drifts.. I might dig a little and try to find if that one came from a trained spotter or not. .

That was a great storm, was under forecast for foothill and NW Piedmont. If I remember correctly a meso-low formed on the East side of the apps.

You're judging a global model based on an amoeba sized piece of real estate and discarding the entire storm. Everyone is entitled to an opinion but based on how the storm unfolded for the entire coast, the euro was BY FAR the best from mid range on in. It literally locked in during the short range and barely wavered. Micro analyzing a global model is using the wrong tool and perspective. No one tool is the best and thats why forecasters are important. To make sense of all the different nuances across guidance. Personally, I stick to a blend of the euro for qpf, track, and progression and the mesos for the fine details like thermals and banding. The last storm went exactly as I expected based on that formula.

Does it show east TN still in the game? Just curious how far east it went .

Weathernext seems about the same for our area as 06z.

Dec 24-26 2010 is very similar but again nothing is perfect as we learned last week. Each setup is unique in its own way. The timing on this one has to be very good. Definitely a boom/bust scenario. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2010/us1225.php

And Toronto has a new all-time 24-daily snowfall record: 22 inches!

All obs this year for me are from Fallston, MD - 11/30 - T 12/2 - A little frz rain to start - trees and car glazed - but 35 and rain for most of event 12/5 - T (dusting from a few hours of flurries as dry cold death air ate any chance of anything else north of BWI 12/14 - 4” 1/2 - .2" (frontal passage snow squall dealie 1/17 - .7" 1/18 - .5" 1/25 - 10" (six inches of snow pre-flip arounf 10 am and four inches of sleet on top - precipitation from 2 am until about 8 pm) Running season total - 15.4”

Stop kidding yourself, you’ll be pulled back in if the models show a big hit

Weathernext is a little east of last run but still solid for NC

Depends. If the longwave ridge trough axis stays where the guidance projects right now it’s likely a miss east. But it’s been trending west and last week it did the same thing right up to the end. If you apply the same idea that NS wave will dig in further west. Into the MS valley instead of the TN valley. Usually with a miller b our issue is the NS wave doesn’t dig south enough. Without some serious -AO help it’s rare to get a NS wave south enough for a major amplification to work for us. We need the upper low to track across southern VA really. Getting the NS to do that is hard. But this setup that actually doesn’t seem to be the issue. Damn some of the runs dig too much and cut off into a NC storm. The bigger issue I see now is the NS is diving in too far east to capture whatever STJ wave there is in time for us. Adjust the whole evolution west 200 miles and we would be in amazing shape! Keep an eye on two things. 1) the whole longer ridge/trough axis. Is the western ridge keeps adjusting west watch the NS wave dive in further west and boom. If it doesn’t then missing southeast (like the AIFS) is the likely outcome. 2) the depth of the NS trough. If we start to see if not dig as deep then a more typical miss to the northeast where Boston is happy and we smoke cirrus becomes a more likely outcome. if the depth of the trough remains the same and we get the westward trend of the longwave pattern to continue as it has the last 10 days then we will get a snowstorm.

Maybe December 1989 as an analog?

3"more between 7am and 1pm. 13.4" total

This is NOT where you wana be 5/6 days out lol. This will end up a cutter if this trends anything like ANY big storm ever .

So that’s what a dendrite looks like!

Correct. Down East NC has a larger one-time snowstorm total than Toronto, Ontario.

It is pouring quarter + sized flakes out there right now. It's wringing every drop of moisture out. 2 very fluffy inches since last night.

Oh definitely. It's a high risk high reward one. Most likely we get little or nothing, but a flush hit? Oh boy

The key thing here is, this is thread the needle. We simply don't do thread the needles or miracles very often. I think people really need to set expectations much lower with this one. Would be more interested if I was in Boston or on Long Island.

Don't excuse him, literally every snow in this area is a long shot.

That's what I keep telling my wife!

Good grief! 30” in Carteret and Craven counties!!!