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I definitely think we’ll have to endure a brief mild period while that +PNA builds. Gotta hope in the immediate long range that our -NAO bullies the pattern a bit. I think it could but the Ohio Valley to the Northeast are certainly favored at the moment.

You rang.

High wind warning here now . Hopefully get some damage

Safe to say one of the GEFS or EPS/GEPS will end up badly wrong on their PNA forecasts

Models continue to be very boring and dry through mid January for much of the middle of the country.

Kissed 50F after a low of 32F. Trash bins weighed down with leftover Christmas junk, will they withstand the wind??

Warms up before another cutter around the 11th was hoping that would stay south this run. Still time to watch it but lots to iron out.

I got a picture of my kids in my wallet. Let's ease up a bit huh?

A century ago the phrase "silver thaw" was used to describe the conditions being reported in n NE today. I am not sure when that went out of the vocabulary but it was even inserted into official documents of weather data in the 1920s and earlier.

Slushy patches left here in Washington Square Park. Probably gone by the end of today.

I don't think the temperature ever got to 40°F here today. Winds are definitely whipping.

Can sorta see two distinct threat windows if you squint. Regardless, pretty active. Regardless, I'll take the GEFS control. 30" in one storm seems ok. 42" in 2 weeks

all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved

Winds picking up... 43F

Still snow on the ground here, but I expect it to dissapear in a timely manner...right when the rain stops. The timing seems to work out that way 9/10 times. It's like the rain is scheduled to stick around long enough to wipe out the snow. Then it freezes up the brown ground again.

Damnit

I use photobucket. @John1122metnioned a service he uses as well. I use photo bucket. I just upload the photo, and then grab a hosting link for it. Some hosting sites are free and some are maybe five bucks a month.

The GFS was actually pretty close. GLL just a bit too separated. Game is still playing ya'll.

Can't believe after all this crazy cold since gobble gobble, we end up with only 2 rat rainers to show for it. When it's actually needed, the cold this season has been retreating faster then the French.

And the cold front (with the wind), is coming through now. Made it up to 51 just before 1 pm and temp is now falling rapidly and down to 44 at post time. Picked up 0.33" of rain today with the prefrontal precip.

12z Euro/EPS and the GEPS try to pop a +PNA just before the Jan 6th - 10th window. To see it on multiple ensembles is encouraging.

Also, ensembles are starting to honk that an Alaskan block is setting up. Now that....that would deliver cold.

I have frequently posted about the drought, I wish to set the record straight and assure everyone that I'm not blaming low snowfall on the drought. High ratio snowfall can easily accumulate with low moisture. My January qp averages 2.95". I could receive only 67% of normal at 2.00" and easily accumulate 25 inches of dry snow. Yes, I do believe with co-operating temperatures its easier to accumulate heavy snowfall with above average qp. That is a common sense call. Farmers often wish for snowfall in a drought to rebuild the water table. High ratio snowfall doesn't do a lot for the water table.

12z euro Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Uptick in fantasy events today, 12z euro was so close to something crazy that run. Take away from today’s runs is that Jan 6-10+ has legit potential. .