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  2. vortex95
    Looking at the ECMWF fcst, it remains cold core aloft for the next several days (see 700 temp 48 hr fcst attached), and at 850 elongated N-S w/ a broad wind field (see 850 winds 60 hr fcst attached). Not much sfc low reflection. I think they may be a case that aloft it is and will stay impressive w/ lots of deep convection/decent swirl, but low-levels struggle to organize. We've seen this before and it looks great on satellite, and some ppl are going, "I can't believe NHC has not declared this yet!" But sfc observations and microwave data show a low-level center ill-defined and/or not tight.
  3. yoda
    Hey Rockingham county, could you share your storms? Thanks
  4. butterfish55
    I've installed a few battery (only) back-ups. Believe it or not, Briggs and Stratton was the brand I installed. They make battery back up modules for some reason. Anyway, I don't think they are great for a stand alone system. They are super expensive and obviously will run out if there is a long outage (more than a day or 2). But, if your power company charges a higher rate during peak times (3-10 pm), you can program the transfer switch to allow you to use battery power during those times and then charge them with grid power overnight when it's cheaper. So there's that... If money was no option, the perfect system would be a combo of solar and battery. The panels power your house and charge the batteries during the day and you run off battery power for the evenings/overnight. Wouldn't use much grid power during spring/summer/fall.
  5. Brewbeer
    it's glorious out there right now. heading to Brimfield tomorrow for an antique sweat fest turned wash out no doubt
  6. donsutherland1
    Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. Some of the thunderstorms could bring flooding downpours and strong winds. The greatest risk is tomorrow night and Sunday. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through the middle of next week. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -27.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.683 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.0° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  7. kgottwald
    Smoke has vanished in Vienna.
  8. weatherwiz
    18z HRRR pretty ominous
  9. canderson
    A SPC 45% damaging wind probability is … high Next Tuesday to me even looks like a higher chance of severe. Have a Death Cab For Cutie concert at Merriweather Tuesday night and already and making plans to not go.
  10. Typhoon Tip
    84/47 ... lot of mid 40s dps. Our source tomorrow is behind a warm boundary smearing through circa 10am to 2 ... after which we sector wedge 88/72's like lower Michigan - maybe. Getting from here to there seems like a warm over instability op tonight.
  11. WxUSAF
    Yeah, northern edge has pushed south into eastern PA and NJ. WV looks relatively clear. But a firehose of smoke pointed right at central MD
  12. kdxken
    Stuck in a holding pattern. NY airspace closed. Probably some douch bag's son is late for a golf lesson.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like MD has the worst of the plume on vis sat.
  14. kdxken
    Ratcheted up quickly. $500 dollar voucher was the initial offer.
  15. SACRUS
  16. Today
  17. TJW014
    Big time boom or bust potential tomorrow. It all hinges on how fast can we clear out after the warm front lifts through
  18. Stormlover74
    Enhanced severe risk as well
  19. Stormlover74
    Flood watch issued for most..city on west
  20. WxWatcher007
    I love those offers
  21. yotaman
    95/85 feels like 126. I think that is the highest feels like I have recorded. Walked outside and my glasses fogged over.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Your Modoki Nino composite has cool anomalies in the east greater than warm anomalies in Nino 4. That's not accurate. Actually, a Modoki Nino typically has no negative anomalies anywhere in ENSO. +0.4c max in the west vs -0.6c max in the east is not an El Nino.
  23. WxUSAF
    Just eyeballing out my office window, it had improved a bit around 11am-12pm but has gotten thicker again since
  24. wxmeddler
    Smoke can do a bunch of stuff but the two things that you see most often are: 1. Smoke can create differential heating on smoke vs. non smoke areas. Causing pseudo surface cold fronts. 2. Mid/Upper level smoke can absorb sunlight and transfer that energy to the surrounding environment; creating warmer mid-levels while also reducing surface heating. Both combined makes caps more robust than would otherwise be expected.
  25. JTA66
    Pass. I threw out a crap ton of groceries the other week after the power outage. Can't afford to keep doing so
  26. kdxken
    I would. Actually they were offering a thousand, hotel and transportation and flight out tomorrow. I almost bit
  27. LakePaste25
    Jet extension is going full steam in the southern hemisphere winter, with copious amounts of snow in the Andes:
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