All Activity

For old times sake, SREF plume has me at 9.5” with a number of higher members and nothing below 7”. Locked in.

+SDC would def work better for my area on the GFS, I think....like 3-4".

As opposed to the brutal 4-5-6 response from last year?

At least 12z Euro AI gets precip into interior SNE now.

The GFS gradient is like 5" at KLWN and 10" IMBY lol Nuts.

Dont sleep on that little burst tomorrow night out this way.

Crossing my fingers too. I saw your call and if it is onto something, you might have to bring your totals down a little, especially to the south and I would that for you (and me lol). But at least you have warned the public about possible last minute changes since we are riding the edge. So far IWX and you are in pretty good agreement though.

Hard to lock anything beyond 72hrs now, sometimes not even a lock inside that anymore. The struggle is real.

Yeah the early morning through mid to possibly late afternoon look good here. Probably several hours of solid rates. But I would be shocked with a low track that north if we dont mix or switchover at some point. But good thing is here looks to happen towards end of the event when most of our accumulation is done already. This system doesn't have much of a deformation zone.

Welcome!

4” overnight plus today? Must be a sweet powder day. Its been snowing for a couple hours (1”/hr) and about 2” new today after 1” overnight. This is accumulations since about 9-10am in the base area.

Agree it looks good right now, but too close. I'm comfy betting on a NW trend at day 4 in early Dec that depends on a cf penetrating into warmish ocean water and a baroclinic zone setting up offshore or near shore.

What are the temps like?

PowellVols is in. Had to start a new account, new email .

Welcome! Glad to have you in our great group of Mountain posters! May there be many 'Jebwalks' in your future!

I'm betting he's at least 75% snow in this...probably all snow. Even the zonked GFS is like right on the line for him to be mostly snow.

Yep break out the shorts

GFS torched because it killed the MJO and headed it back kinda towards 6 in the COD.

and this is the result

You in Btown? I don’t think I’d be as pessimistic there. Unless you really think this goes over RI or something.

It Fucking Sucks

The 12z Canadian is a solid middle ground, similar to recent Euro runs. I would sign for this on Tuesday.

That’s a brutal phase 8 response

A bit strange to see such a dramatic reversal - it's on an island at this point. Even the ensemble isn't quite so drastic with the cut off. If some of the hi res guidance suggested something like this I would start getting concerned, but after seeing the 12z GFS/HRRR, as well as the 15z RAP, I don't think this run was the start of an overall trend. Crossing fingers

Wild how nonchalantly we stumbled into maps like this. Like Alek mentioned, the decent antecedent conditions for once is cool and something I'd willingly accept in lieu of better ratios later on.