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For East Tennessee Knoxville topped out at 33, and Chattanooga 34 on Sunday during the warm nose. If those numbers are just a little too warm and over modeled by a few degrees then talking about long duration ice with no thaw then temps quickly crash. This is what I think people really need to prepare for in the end just in case. How many times have we seen low level cold be under modeled and also more stubborn to warm up over the years. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Eyeballing those panels looks like about 11" here. 8" snow and 3" sleet then a .1 of ice. That is OK, minus that the OTG total after it stops will be in the 7" range. It'll be around a while though.

Still ongoing snow at hour 81

THIS. Even in Raleigh, temp drops from 34 back to the upper 20s before noon.

Altoona the big winner lol

GFS is significantly colder at surface and 850 based on the maps; I've not looked at the numbers yet. There is certainly a period of some ice Sunday but that solution is very different from the NAM.

we don't know what's going to happen, this could easily trend south or stay where it's at we don't know!

This will be a much needed storm. regardless of meeting inflated max potentials

AIGFS no change

GFS did get a tad NW with the snow/sleet line compared to its 18z run, getting into a portion of Lancaster and maybe extreme southern York. Still a plenty big enough hit for everyone. Top end down a slight bit area-wide, basically 18-19” (Kuchera) for everyone.

GFS had all 12 of new drops the hurricane hunters did today. The new Euro will as well Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The models keep warming but the qpf keeps going up, totals don't really change.

Sure is…

It would really be something if the GFS pulls the upset here. It’s sure sticking to its southern idea.

GFS Ice trend

from pitt forum

perty snowmaps slightly better for M/D line and north. small changes, but thats a win, cause there ar no BIG changes.

Oh, I know I'll be better up there. Just very spiteful about it. Anyways, either GFS should be permanently ignored or it's about to go on the greatest model Linsanity run I've ever seen.

I am looking forward to your obs Sunday morning that its a “BEATDOWN right now” out by you!

The GFS has been very consistent since it hooked onto the “two stage” setup two or so days ago. If it’s wrong, what a massive black eye for it on a season it has been quite poor.

Stays below freezing for the entire event in Hickory, but swings from a “high” of 31 F at 4 AM on Monday morning to 17 F at 7 AM. That’s a crazy temperature swing over that period.

1/23 0z GFS total QPF storm Total snow / sleet (10:1)

It didn't really hold serve in my view, it may a significant overall shift to the others.

Ive lived here long enough to know CAD means rain here. Whatever frozen there is will rapidly go to 40 and rain