All Activity
- Past hour
-
Yeah, I get it. I keep the windows closed during the day, open at night. It's not terrible. If I can't stand this, this year, then that will happen. At some point tough isn't enough. Will use wet towels with a fan blowing, if I really need too. After this tho, 70 will be frosty LOL
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I just researched it. CMCC is an Italian climate model. I can’t find verification data, but +5.3C monthly peak isn’t going to happen on a RONI basis and almost certainly not even per ONI. If there had been other models near that, I might have given it a little more consideration. But with it 1.4C warmer than the 2nd warmest on that list and with that 2nd warmest, itself, already forecasting >1C warmer than the current record warmest, I find it hard to consider it even remotely possible. -
Big storm passed to our north but managed to get .09" out of it.
-
Got a flush hit with the ffx cell. Ominous vibes as the first half of the storm had ever increasing rainfall rates that climbed past 1, then 2, then 3 inch/hour as gusts of wind came through. Hit the peak of 3.4 inch/hour as the wind died out, some of the heaviest rates I’ve ever seen. Made even my family come out to look. Still pouring but estimating I’ll finish around a bit above an inch (maybe more if the secondary cell over Dulles hits too). If you look at a longer radar loop (codnexrad is my favorite site for that) you can see how the outflow boundary from MD interacted with the leftover boundary in western fairfax to pop the storms right along it. Neat stuff.
-
Tonight’s a really pleasant night (here/Columbia) just sitting on a dry deck with a gentle breeze and 78° — who can ask for more? After lucking out with 3-1/4 inches of rain between July 4-9, the last two days have been frustrating watching radar; a trace at best for the last two days as of now. Also while sitting outside I just noticed a lower-level group of broken clouds moving east to west. Easterly breeze has picked up too.
-
There's time for the PDO to cooperate. Once the Niño conditions in the N. Hemisphere get truly established, as in October, we might see a flip to at least neutral imho.
-
7.66?!?! That’s crazy.
-
Fairly tranquil here today.OFB was down into southern parts where at least they had some severe thunderstorms earlier,least you guys in the east are getting some rain
- 349 replies
-
- severe
- mountain snow
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Ngl I’m getting better at this whole forecasting thing.
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Tallis Rockwell replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
F em clankers -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
TriPol replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Before posting that here, maybe you should have asked Chat GPT this question. Catastrophic doesn't even come close to the amount of damage 5.0C could cause. -
They sure are frustrating and its a damn miracle they're only 2 games out of the wild card.
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Tallis Rockwell replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Even though I know it's unlikely., the fact that I even see this a possibility is scary. -
Can the Orioles do the unthinkable before the end of the 1H of the season and put up a 4 game winning streak? Stay tuned!
- Today
-
For all you Minnesotans out there, the International Falls evening weather sounding said 89/71 with 4447 J/kg of CAPE with no storms nearby.
-
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
BBasile replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
That was quick. Mt Holly A-gaming it. -
You wanted heat for your garden. Your vegetables will be coming pre-cooked.
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Very low, less than 0.001%. Our strongest el ninos (namely 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16) ended up between 2.5-3C. 5C is way off the charts. -
Yep. But seeing lightning off of that storm to my South.
-
For as inexpensive as a small window ac unit is, I would have one available to use even if i only needed for a handful of days a year just because I hate sleeping in a hot room. It’s not like I have to use my ac all summer here either but for those really warm nights, I would be miserable the next day if I didn’t have it. It seems like the older i get, the less tolerant I am of hot or cold. lol.
-
Swing and a miss for Frederick proper.
-
Yeah should have specified imby, somewhat odd looking ridge, good luck to our friends up northwest breaking some records
-
Should be ok. Grew up on boats but good to know being a much bigger boat.
-
Back in the day when the NWS only had the zone forecasts, they would always say “ cooler near Lake Huron” over here in the spring and Summer when needed. However, I don’t ever recall a forecast that said warmer near Lake Huron in the Fall or Winter. There are a lot of times especially in the Fall when there could be gale force winds blowing at the shore with a temperature of 50F while it’s in the 30s with frost and calm winds 20 miles inland. Maybe they just figured the average person didn’t care about that? Just my thought for the day.
