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Short Pump again for the win. Damn those Short Pumpers!

HRDPS looks good but a nasty dry slot for some in central eastern VA and far southern MD

@dendrite Not sure if you follow this at all but I've seen your posts regarding trees and figured it may be of interest: https://www.unh.edu/unhtoday/2025/12/james-hall-ginkgo-tree-sees-latest-leaf-drop-record

Whoa. 12z GFS and UK coming in with 3-6” across the RVA!

This is going to continue to get better as 30.15 baro not suppressive. It’s going to rise some as next 18 hours progresses but I think 30.35 is the peak and that’s closer to perfection than suppression

Is the system out by 7am? Or still on going? .

What stands out to me is that even if the totals are very light, temperatures at onset are in the mid to upper 20s for most of us (except maybe for the far southern crew). With the earlier onset, as others have noted, the morning rush hour could be very tricky, and school systems are going to have some very challenging decisions to make.

100% I thought the winters sucked because we never got snow days (except for 1978) and precious few big snows, but I think we had more days with snow on the ground, the ponds were safe for skating, etc. Even with changeovers, more of them had snow remaining after it refroze than has been the case this century. Not to say that there haven't always been some epic washouts, but I remember some of those genuinely sucky winters as being more wintry,

in albs for the next month. can confirm deep winter vibes up here

the coldest night so far this season--20 for the low. and tons of frost everywhere.

Its really bad for the storm where models showed 4-5-6 inches and we get 1. I mean come one how inaccurate can it get. Grats to those who got more then that.

UK much improved as well, looks like consensus for about an inch in DC.

Random observation, but it's been a snowy week in Albany and the upper Hudson Valley. Yes that's far outside our region, but not typically a very snowy area. They got into intense lake effect snow last Fri for several hours then warning snows on Tue and now arctic snow squalls incoming. Hopefully we can spread that love a little further south down the Hudson over the next few weeks.

I’ll need to figure out who that is and where they live. Lol amounts can sometimes vary widely from the south part of town to the NW side,

Best part is that whatever happens is inside 96h. No long range tracking here. And that is my big seasonal concern. Torpedo is a brilliant way of describing it. If it hits it can do legit damage, but if it is one of those crap unguided ones most of them zip on with sound and fury signifying nothing.

I don't think comparing model performance for the last storm has any bearing on what to expect from guidance on this storm. They are two totally different setups. In retrospect though, all guidance really struggled with the last storm. Every model, every run, was yielding a totally different look and evolution of the 500mb energy but given that regime that should be expected. Also, when it comes to potential phasing events its all about timing. The slightest difference in the timing of the phase can mean a SLP of weak sauce with nothing or a full fledged nor'easter. Even on the Euro there is more room for the northern stream to dig given the jet streak associated with the trough but subtle differences can result in big changes to the sfc output.

Ebb and flow of climate is interesting. We were not on a heater there in some of those SNE 2010s seasons. But it’s been a run the past two seasons.

Only model showing really anything is the gfs. Not great

Sitting at 36/24. Not expecting anything out of this coming up. Bummer. Maybe we can pull a surprise! Temps way off on the HRRR short range considering.

We’ll melt it out a few days later anyways as our clipper becomes a cutter.

Yeah, it really blows up once it gets past us. This is the type of system I feel like we had trend better in this timeframe back in like 2014-17 timeframe. We haven’t had any luck with that since

Really that's going to be the challenge ... I realize I hit at this aspect a lot and probably it's getting on nerves, I dunno - folks don't seem to acknowledge they understand, or perhaps they don't give a shit. LOL either way ... but the fastness of the basal velocity, is also matched by the fact that embeded S/W are torpedoing at huge speeds relative to planetary climate. We're seeing them enter B.C. and exit the EC of N/A in like 60 hours. It's very physically challenging to get streams to resonate with that circumstantially going on. But that said, it doesn't mean it can't just be enough... or perhaps slow down even ( thus allowing more harmonics), if the non-linear +PNA ( which is in fact bursting in that time range - mentioned this earlier to Southcoast' ) becomes more linearly expressed. This morning ... as I glanced over the overnight largely disappointing cinemas, it occurred to me just how fantastic the overall B-C gradient is over our side of the hemisphere. Perhaps more raw potential explosive power, untapped, than I've ever seen since becoming aware of this shit back in 1990+ ... But there's shot-gun pellet S/W that are all having trouble resonating and are just blasting past one another. We just need the large wave scales to curve more - which they are challenged to do ( again..) because the speed saturation.