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We have plenty of time to watch this one develop. Remember, these ENSO plumes are just basically repeater models. They extrapolate the current conditions going forward. They are correct when the actual conditions repeat. When changes occur they exhibit errors. So if these record WWBs continue, then we have a shot at what they are showing. All I can say is that the models did a great job on the plumes from April of 2023. We would probably a wind reversal on the order of June 2014 in order to avoid a +2.0 or greater ONI outcome. Once we verify the June conditions then things will come into better focus. The big story in 2023-2024 was the models underestimating the Nino ridge and warmth along the Northern Tier and overestimating the Aleutian low and troughing in the South and East. So it will be interesting to see how things go with this event.

Not a heck of alot of lift around but maybe a chance for a few strong storms Tuesday north and west...been a pretty decent signal for a few days. maybe some sort of weak pre-frontal trough around?

30.4. Lots of 20s on the MD mesonet.

36 for the low, no freeze!

The cooler Euro Mid 80s in the warmer spots in Central NJ is probably the floor and the Canadian low 90s is the high end potential. Will probably come down to frontal timing and clouds. But the signal is there for the warmest readings of the year so far.

Yep come March it’s WACO lately

14° from my low. Yay April?

The organic matter is the key. The chemical ferts are like crack, they juice the grass but the effects wear off quickly and they don't contribute to the long-term microbial biodiversity in the soil, which is important for plant health. Lawn looks awesome ! Mine's still dormant.

Another perspective on global oisst. So far this year looks a lot like 2023, which had a large rise in SST at the very beginning of the nino cycle. This year started its rapid rise even earlier around New Years. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

Seems like we need to wait til Tuesday down here..otherwise its 40s and 50s

WACO ?

Winter caved faster than Trump on an Iranian deal.

Low of 28 in Marysville.

Winter is over and has been over since the end of February. Finally some nicer weather ahead.

Min 21.6° with wind I saw Gene down to 18°. Feels like winter this morning. At least it’s sunny.

Will be no mow summer here with the drought

26.4 for low...mind must have stayed up a bit because I didn't radiate that well.

low of 30

32 imby. 6 in canaan.

extended continues to look active for the central part of the country, including most of us

33f

29