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Some showers are possible tonight into tomorrow. Tomorrow will remain mild with highs in the middle and upper 60s. A cold front that will bring showers or a thundershower tomorrow afternoon or evening will result in cooler conditions returning to the region on Monday. Temperatures through midweek will likely top out in the 50s. The coolest weather is likely on Wednesday when the low could approach 32° in New York City. If so, New York City could see its second consecutive April with a freeze (last year's last freeze was April 9). The last time that happened was 2015 and 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -4.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.054 today.

Funny, I just got done with my first cut as well. Hit 82 today. The highest it got summer of '23 was 85.8. Back to reality tomorrow but the 6-10 and 8-14 shows us all roasty toasty. Might be shaping up to be a long summer.

Feels very late spring/summery with that 61 dew point and it being mid 80's

It’s a July day. 87. March blew. April starts even worse.

Right. That doesn't conflict with what I said that we have a pending trade and then westerly burst. But I was talking about a return of trades after the westerly burst near the end of May. He skipped over that and says maybe another westerly burst in June. I was under the impression with your post that there were models other than the Cfs2 that showed westerly winds maintaining beginning with the westerly burst starting April 17th or so and beyond that pushes east of the dateline. And by the way, the maps in that last link you posted in Deoras' post are old. One is from 3/19 and the other is dated 3/18 (check the solid black line on the maps that say "Begin forecast period"...don't know why his 4/3 post would do that. If interested, the current maps are at the link below along with the current Cfs2 forecast that goes out into June that he references. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Temp was in the 60’s here be for the BD went through; now down to 48F

Back door cold front on its way .

Tip, I’m trying to figure out why you said this (is there a typo?): “the entire planetary system, all metrics, air to sea and back, UNpredictably rose a whole degree C in the spring of 2023” From what I saw, 2023 was a shocking 0.29C warmer than 2022 as per what’s below. But where are you getting that spring rose 1C? 1.54 °C / 2.77 °F ± 0.04 °C ± 0.06 °C 2022 6 1.25 °C / 2.25 °F Do you mean that all metrics first hit +1C above 1850-1900?

Yep, 66F/DP 55F....refreshing.

87/60

Today was much more likened to a BD than the other day... If you loop the hi res vis imagery, you can see this frontal fist punching into the upper M/A and this also jammed through here this morning,

50's now and falling. Party's over.

No confidence ... . How in the fuck could anyone take that position when the entire planetary system, all metrics, air to sea and back, UNpredictably rose a whole degree C in the spring of 2023, 0 forewarning ?! And it was not predicted by any agency, man or machine If what you are saying of his, or any other's attitudes akin to it, is true, they're all full of shit frankly. Sorry. I'm not directing this at you ...I've grown tired of hearing these idiots with a veritable podium making declarations that are so clearly arithmetically wrong, if they are frustrating they are embarrassing. NO, until something or some one comes forward as not only having predicted the 2023, "instantaneous Earth detonation degree event" would occur, but precisely and incontrovertibly how and why, logic calls their bluff. They are highly suspect if not unequivocally false.

The back door front came through. After a high of 80F I’m now down to 67F.

Down to 54⁰ here now. It's actually turned into a nice afternoon for getting some work in the garden done. It was too warm before.

IAD hit 88 (beating the old record of 85). Looks like DCA and IAD probably will just miss.

How great for them.

This weather sucks. Heat exhaustion at my older son’s soccer game this morning. On April 4th.

Sadly, this is the earliest that my A/C has ever been run.

Charlie, I assume you realize that Roy’s been dismissive of alarmism related to AGW rather than the science of AGW, itself. He agrees that the globe has warmed due to AGW but doesn’t accept anything close to the worst case scenarios as being realistic because he feels that the warming from it is/will be less than the amount needed to result in the worst case due partially to negative rather than positive feedback. He feels that the alarmism is being largely fueled for political reasons. Due to extreme difficulty in predicting how much more the globe will warm, his being on the lower side is imho not contradicting science. We’re dealing with variables rather than exact answers. I personally feel that politics has a nontrivial affect on both sides of this issue as it affects so many things unfortunately. However, I do realize that outright AGW deniers do mainly reside on the conservative side of the aisle. These two statements aren’t conflicting.

It was a nice day.. stacking some wood earlier this afternoon, almost 60. Its 46 degrees now. Looks like the easterlies have killed a nice day. No pun intended.

There was a WB back into 2023 around the same time from a Rossby Wave.There was also another RW in Mid May JAMSTEC Mean shows the DMI rising into fall almost to +1.5 ATM,but when the DMI rises like this ,this is typical the norm you see more or less NINA the following year,least it's been like this the last several decades

Down to 62 now with more clouds and a stiff breeze out of the east.

I'm still waiting for all of the snow you said was coming back in early March.

Just mowed my lawn for the first time this season. For reference, my typical first cut is around May 1st.