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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
CoastalWx replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Sometime between 12-3 to 12-5 is the time to watch. Nothing imminent and something well south of us is possible. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Chris, if we are being honest with ourselves, that is a definitive trend towards a more concerted press of the PV. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Lots of December 2007 on that composite......my snowiest month of December on record. -
The colder trend for early Dec is happening on all ensembles including GEFS: these are all for a week from today at 7PM: watch the SER disappear: @donsutherland1@bluewave
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The ensembles always show variations with week 2 forecasts. There really hasn’t been that much of a change. Still looking at a Southeast ridge or Western Atlantic ridge and a trough digging into the Baja to start December. New day 6-10 Old day 11-15
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The ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) want to retrograde the Alaskan ridge (-EPO) to an Aleutian ridge (-WPO) by the beginning of the 2nd week of December. So you end up with a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA setup. It’s been a consistent theme for several cycles now
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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
CoastalWx replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
The one thing that kind of concerns me, though is some signs of zonal flow across the US Canada border. I worry that bottles some of the cold up in Canada versus spilling in here more frequently. But we’ll see, just something I’ve kind of noticed. -
I was skiing at Belleayre on Friday and they are off to their best start in years. likewise, many resorts in the northeast. I was in Park city last week. They are off to a horrendous start . no snow at all and not open. that is what the Wasatch range looks like right now. Direct shot of Park City Mountain
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2025-2026 ENSO
donsutherland1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The 0z GEFS was showing on of the more uncommon December teleconnection combinations near the end of its forecast period. -
November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
jbenedet replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
The first week of December is warming on guidance. MJO, teleconnections forecasts are all moving to warm phases. I don’t get the excitement at all. MJO phase 7 in November is actually N to cold but we are moving into December as we settle into that phase. I think this is leading to some false cold signals on guidance. Of course I’m speaking wrt where most of us live—close to the coast. The modeling showing more ridging in the SE and cold dumping over the central CONUS is much more in line with the tapestry of MJO phase 7 in December. -
The return of the blob? Btw, thanks for posting the model forecast change loops. If you look to the left at the north pacific, notice the lines tightening meaning the models underestimate the pac jet and it gets stronger as it gets closer in time. That nudges north pac ridging to the north and east into the EPO domain, which means more cold for midwest and possibly the east. The SST change map also seems to reflect this tendency.
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Coldest week so far in this La Niña event in regions 3.4 and 4…
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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential
Baum replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Cruel overnight runs sounds like. -
Same goes with every model in the long range. These models aren't stable at all.
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And its gone on the models
