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sun angle…sorry had to

Kinda expect LWX to shoot out some WWAs for at least I-95&east the EPS being pretty aggressive on the latest run

Great. Now that damn model is gonna live off this one win for decades. Its the Roger Dorn of models.

Probably not a 10:1 accumulation, especially in Manhattan, but we have over 1 inch here in Bayside. Still probably a few hours ago, maybe we can make it to 2"?

lol no advisory for here tomorrow.. that's for today.. seriously they have some catching up to do

IF the latent heat release - trof development feedback loop theory can explain or partly explain the AI vs. physics-based model divide over the past few days, you wouldn't expect a gradually shift towards compromise. You would expect the AIs to hold firm and the physics-based models to shift suddenly and significantly at the last minute. Only when their initializations start to capture the effect in real time. That would basically be now as Gulf moisture is just now showing up on radar/satellite.

That would be pushing it WSW. Too much uncertainty w/ low ratios and mild sfc temps.

But did you see the Allen Iverson Euro triple phaser for the 29th?

looks like back edge approach, maybe another half hour or so under this little band, but damn, almost the best of the winter so far, but awesome that it was day time

I didn't expect it to accumulate on all surfaces so quickly but that's what heavier rates will do for you especially in January.

Hopefully it will setup on the TN/AL line.

Today is a nice overperformer. NYC saw 0.09" precipitation in the past hour and that sent the temperature all the way down to the wet bulb figure of 32°.

Superb .

You can always watch the Flyers get shellacked. Get a couple injuries and the team folds.

Smart move on their part, for right now. At least if 18z bumps up a hair they can up to a warning in some places

Yup…we take. Snow on snow. Gonna be a great weekend in that regard.

.....but our "Warning" criteria is 1-3" URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 123 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 GAZ082>084-093>097-104>109-180800- /O.UPG.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.260118T0800Z-260118T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.260118T0800Z-260118T1800Z/ Bibb-Twiggs-Wilkinson-Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Sumter- Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge- Including the cities of Toomsboro, Abbeville, Warner Robins, Macon, Vienna, Fort Valley, Cochran, Hawkinsville, Montezuma, Dublin, Eastman, Cordele, Jeffersonville, and Americus 123 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and west central Georgia. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

2 inches here! Back edge of the snow just about here. Beautiful scene with the trees coated with wet snow. This ended up being a nice little event and tomorrow should be even better.

Yup dp were in the middle teens this morning I made it to 36* before the heavy snow started quickly down to 32*

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 MDZ021>025-180300- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0001.260118T1500Z-260119T0300Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- 134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches. * WHERE...Dorchester, Inland Worcester, the Maryland Beaches, Somerset, and Wicomico Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The advisory may need to be expanded southward with future updates if the snow forecast continues to trend upward.

It’s all about the rates…that’s all you need to know.

looks good.

Euro is south and a day later=split the difference apply e=mc squared and it's a snowstorm

Where can one find the noaa weather model?

Models say you might be able to sneak it in. The mid-level clouds that will be coming in from the south look like they'll hold off until midnight or so (look at the 700 RH on the GFS). Higher level (500mb) RH still gives you a window before 11pm or so. Going to the mesos, the HRRR/NAM Next look good through 10pm while the NAM parent has some clouds moving in closer to 8pm. All-in-all, you'll have to make a call on how much risk your group is willing to take.