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If we have high pressure in place to lock in the cold, everything is suppressed. When the high pressure recedes we get 34 degrees and rain. Dc metro is just brutal for snow lovers. .

The 12Z GFS solution is coming in with a nice hit.

Someone years ago, maybe @donsutherland1, ran an analysis and there’s actually higher precipitation around Dec 25 than other parts of the month.

Cold morning with -sd's along the shore and -10's inland with some -20's. Heavy sea smoke. Looking forward to some snow action starting tomorrow.

Deepest snow in chicago in nearly 5 years. Congrats, im jealous!

just like last winter

Which are y’all going with for Saturday’s (12/13) low? The GFS sticks out as much colder than the others at ATL with upper teens there, which tells me it’s likely too cold there. It has had a cold bias over snowcover in recent years (which is well above average in the Midwest). That’s probably a factor as I don’t know that that has been fixed. 6Z GFS: pipe busting cold with upper teens ATL/RDU: likely too cold 0Z Euro: slower with the cold and thus is much warmer on Sat AM with upper 30s: likely too warm though it has 20s the subsequent few days 0Z ICON: mid 20s RDU to upper 20s ATL: looks like a reasonable middle-ground 0Z CMC: coldest at RDU with mid teens (CMC has a well-known cold bias) though only down to mid 20s ATL 0Z UKMET: only down to low 30s though it has a warm bias/very likely too warm though it is headed for 20s on Sunday

The ICON evolution verbatim is what I fear with the mid month storm, if we are talking possibilities. West coast ridge collapses, and the trough in east doesn't dig much. And the storm develops late well east of Maine. Let's see what the big boy models show Edit: I guess I was looking at the 14th.. The storm on the 12th looked a bit more promising though still well east and late developing Hopefully we hit on one of em!

I’m not using Dec 2022 as a heavily weighted analog because of snowcover. On this date in 2022, there was only 1% snowcover in the Midwest: Compare that to today’s 46%, the 3rd highest only to 2013’s and 2007’s 53% and just ahead of 2005’s 45%: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=Midwest&year=2025&month=12&day=7&units=e

Anyone have southern Va/northern NC on their to get more snow than us in December poll? Lol

Good radiational cooling last night, hit 23 here. Meanwhile UHI had temps mostly above freezing in the city as suburbs were in the teens and twenties.

I hope you're right but I hope everyone cashes in and maxes out. I'm thinking I'm not going to be able to make it from Beech to Johnson City for an appointment tomorrow lol.

Most of the places where nyc's reservoirs are don't have storm water drains. It's all culvert on natural ground so it just gets soaked into the dirt.

Multiple record lows were set this day, but one of the more impressive was Flint which smashed their record low ot 6 with -3.

Amazing what you get used to when it’s cold…toughens ya.

GFS still shows a nice event for NC/VA border and mountains

It got down to 28 here

We had the SSW (barely) a few weeks ago which threw the models going warm for a loop. Now we have another Stratosphere warming, though not a technical SSW with negative winds, coming around the 15th per attachment. I think we'll need to wait until after the 20th-25th to see how that effects the AO/NAO.

34° feels like 60°

100%.

Definitely agree with that. Plus, December 2023 was warm all the way through. Kind of like 2015 and 2021. All of those years had a regression to the mean in January, with snow and near normal temperature departures. This year we have a cold December so far. We just need a snowfall, or otherwise, we might have a similar situation to December 2022.

While still colder than normal for early December it will still be about the best day this week to start or finish (in my case) putting up your Christmas decorations. Highs today will be well into the 30's but still at least 5 degrees below average. We again turn sharply colder tomorrow with the passage of an arctic front late tonight. Temperatures both tomorrow and Tuesday will remain below freezing. Tomorrow night looks to be our coldest night so far this early winter season with low temperatures not too far from 10 degrees. We moderate to closer to normal on Wednesday with rain shower chances increasing and then by Thursday night into Friday may see chances for some snow in at least parts of the area. We again turn very cold by next weekend.

I understand it's the CFS on tropical tidbits, but this is the 1st time it's shown below normal anomalies every week for the next 6. Doesn't appear like this cold is going anywhere soon. Just need the cold centered west of us if we want anything significant. Need the NAO to go slightly negative if you're looking for anything like '13-'14, otherwise it's a repeat of last year but with the snow centered ~3 hundred miles north and about a month earlier..

While still colder than normal for early December it will still be about the best day this week to start or finish (in my case) putting up your Christmas decorations. Highs today will be well into the 30's but still at least 5 degrees below average. We again turn sharply colder tomorrow with the passage of an arctic front late tonight. Temperatures both tomorrow and Tuesday will remain below freezing. Tomorrow night looks to be our coldest night so far this early winter season with low temperatures not too far from 10 degrees. We moderate to closer to normal on Wednesday with rain shower chances increasing and then by Thursday night into Friday may see chances for some snow in at least parts of the area. We again turn very cold by next weekend.

I created a new thread for tomorrow’s wintry event in mainly NC/VA: