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we have had an absolutely unbelievably boring past 5 years and I mean just earth-shatteringly boring weatherwise compared to any semblance of normal. the single most consequential weather thing to happen to me unfortunately was this summer being without power for 4 days it sucked it also was the only exciting weather event in The last 5 years. Five Years of Hydrological Boredom in South-Central Pennsylvania From water years 2022 through 2026, the Harrisburg region has experienced a remarkable absence of major river flooding. Not that it never rained, or that individual storms didn't cause problems. But the annual flood peaks across our rivers and creeks have been astonishingly subdued. In a consistent seven-gage network covering 1954–2026, the past five years rank as the quietest five-year stretch in the entire 73-year record. Even the Susquehanna at Harrisburg recorded an exceptionally low annual peak in 2026. How unusual is that? In simulations that preserve regional flood relationships, a particular five-year period this quiet occurred roughly 0.6%–1.1% of the time, depending on how consecutive years were resampled. And here's an interesting historical observation: among 13 unusually quiet five-year windows with follow-up data, nine were followed by five years of above-median flood activity. However, those windows overlap and represent only six distinct episodes, so this is not proof that a flood-rich period is coming. Rivers do not accumulate unpaid flood debt. So here's the question: After five extraordinarily boring years, what will 2027–2031 bring to south-central Pennsylvania? A. More of the same: another unusually quiet five years. B. Back to ordinary: a fairly typical mix of wet and dry years. C. A flood-active stretch: above-normal river flooding returns. D. The pendulum swings hard: one or more major, memorable regional floods. What's your prediction? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Forgot about these cool SST maps from Rutgers. No cloud correction so the clouds from Josephine impact the regional view. Some very warm water just offshore https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/data/satellites/imagery/?region=nybight&product=sst&sm=10&sd=15&sy=2026&em=10&ed=22&ey=2026

Full on Steiner thru 15

Imo- it could be a signal of a potential strong -AO in Dec. That in itself, regardless of enso state, is the single best long range indicator of an above normal snow season. I'd have to dig in a hard drive of a computer in storage to find my spreadsheet... so that won't be happening lol but iirc, a December mean AO of -1.25 or lower indicates an 80% chance of above average snowfall for the season.

67 today. Nice day for a round of golf

my record low is 24. lol

Pretty snowy overall on the weeklies for alot of the country going into December. Even some snow up here.

The remainder of this week and weekend will see highs mainly in the lower 60s. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend into at least early next week. Temperatures will continue to top out in the upper 50s and lower 50s through the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -33.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.869 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. But I saw some other stuff that suggests the early warming increases chances for later warming events. But we don't want to put all our eggs in the "stratosphere basket" by any means. Best for it to just enhance our chances than to be the sole/direct cause as they often don't workout so well as most know.

Isn’t there a lag time of a few weeks from when the SSW peaks to when it potentially impacts our region?

There was another one today for an even larger area! Yesterday Flagstaff had a tornado warning and the airport reported squalls with a gust of 72 mph.

70/33 split for me Thinking 20s either Saturday or Sunday morning

If there is a storm on a weekend I just may.

been an active summer and early fall-we were due.

Record low for CON yesterday is 10°

a bit cooler than desired, hoping to finish the patching and painting on the antique Honda this weekend

wow, a cool airmass in late october

these climate model seasonal snow maps are a joke. what a waste of space and resources

The whole prostate massage to 10mb right now looks to be just that. It appears nobody is expecting anything significant from it.

Dude is click bait

The weather flatlined.

Head to Canaan valley this winter lol