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HRRR is likely overdone. N ORH county jack with the max axis to the NH/MA border by Ray is my call.

Oh good for you!

I know several people who live in that area and they would agree with your post..

NAM will probably nuke closer to the cape if it did that at 6z.

TBH.... I don't expect the roads to be snowy during the daytime on Tuesday around the Hartford area, but once the sun goes down, I think that will change.

Yeah that is going to be a factor with a marginal airmass on the cp

It’s also going to be cold tonight in those spots that get snow. Should have no issue sticking if you’re near 32 or below. Hell 33F aggies will have no issue sticking.

Epstein mentioned the non-frozen ground as a factor for roads in his podcast this morning (just for the marginal areas).

The mesos have been flagging ptype issues off an on for a while along the coast. Now the euro saying the same. FV3 hi-res also been very warm.

NAM is gonna be more amped than 06z just based on 12 hour panel.

This is what I mean. Once it locked in…it was deadly. Whatever they did to it(supposedly to make it better), totally messed it up. And all the upgrades since have made it even worse. What a dam shame. Talk about if ain’t broke, don’t fix it. And it’s hilarious how some pros will defend it till the end, and say it’s better now cuz it nails the 850’s in the Southern Hemisphere down in Argentina.

Let’s get Dendrite CF enhancement.

The daytime onset is just a very marginal factor negatively affecting an already very marginal snow setup. It would be more credible to stack a warm ground 50F SST’s and the daytime onset for reasons against going higher.

Yeah between ~ Nov 10 and Feb 10, that range gets the lowest insolation. We can get away with at least holding ice between 10 and 2pm in icing situations at 32/no new... vs losing at that same temperature and marginal condition outside that date range.

Lol, basically has no snow in SNE outside of far N ORH county and N Berkshires. Completely different evolution though...doesn't close off 850 until way later than other guidance.

When people lump my climo in with DAW…while I’m 8 miles southeast… and 200 ft lower in elevation. Just shake my head. This is like the 20th time in 10 years that the coastal front will be right over my head.

Barely gets you down to 32 lol.

Hrrr wasn't an absolute disaster (copyright JI)

I get that, I'm retired so I know what you mean, lol. I think just north of the rain-snow line, wherever it winds up, should have a pretty solid event.

HRRR looks good

Watch the NAM bring SN to ACK for the 12Z run.

Ha, Newark…

I'm really disliking the overnight trends for I-95 and the immediate suburbs. 12z NBM has literally no snowfall for the entire urban corridor (Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks NWS forecast zones and points SE). This storm is reminding me of the one we had around this time in December 2019

12z HRRR is for many