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  2. A-L-E-K
    we're gonna be doing a lot of torching this winter
  3. Typhoon Tip
    AAM is an abbreviation for Atmospheric Angular Momentum try searing on the full text instead of AAM -
  4. LakePaste25
    You can tell we are slowly getting to that warm ENSO state. Plenty of +U in the NH. Still some residual ridging out west of the Aleutians but even that’s weakening and probably flattens out with time.
  5. Daniel Boone
    It's the big Heat Dome that plagued the Southern Plains all Summer. Question is, will it finally dissolve, shift Eastward out into the Atlantic, become a Bermuda High, weaken then rebound etc.. The back Westward shift.is unlikely as the STJ should barrel into the SW. Come Winter, if there's any semblance of this Feature,whether stll alive(low odds) or ressurrected, it could have quite an effect, especially if it becomes formidable then. IF it were to it would probably setup in the SW Atlantic due to the STJ forcing. Where out there would determine our Pattern Outcome; out by the Sargasso Sea would be great if you want Snow. Further West mild and probably wet.
  6. 87storms
    Warm/dry, cold/wet?
  7. Winter Wizard
    An interesting thing about the GLAAM is that when it's plotted on a latitudinal basis, it's actually shown to be strongly in the negative direction around the mid-latitudes. It almost looks like a glitch but it has been moderately to strongly negative at various other points since July. Perhaps some interference somewhere?
  8. Spartman
    BAM is anticipating an Omega block to form next week. https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2100011954584617218
  9. 87storms
    That's pretty typical in the warmer months, though, right? That said, this has been one of the most humid summers that I can recall...certainly since those legendary summers of 2017 and 2018. What we're really missing are those southern storms or even tropical remnants, but the overall base state airmass since spring implies we may get more of those this year.
  10. WxUSAF
    Showers and storms a bit early?
  11. dendrite
    For those in RI, E CT, and SE MA that want to try pawpaws
  12. TheDreamTraveler
    Next week is going to feel very fall with highs in the 60's and rain. I'm kind of looking forward to it honestly but I'm also one of those weird ones that like long cool rainy days
  13. JenkinsJinkies
    There is a chance that this is ushering in the pattern change.
  14. JenkinsJinkies
    We’ve had worse torchmases
  15. RCola
    It's part of his reverse psychology strategy.
  16. Today
  17. Bob Chill
    Just looking at the real time Pac ssta plots makes it really hard (for me) to make a case for a remotely cold December. PDO index #s have trended less hostile but thats only a numerical index.... the visual of the Pac is quite hostile still and it's a long ways away from what we consider a favorable enso/pdo combo.... There's a lot of rippin deep red where we want anything but lol As fall progresses it should continue to cool and reconfigure towards at least a semi normal Npac during a Nino but its hard to ignore how ugly the Npac is right now. Its hard to imagine a favorable pac pattern setting in quick for the Eastern conus. This is one of the main reasons I think the Dec CFS idea makes sense.
  18. mitchnick
    I deleted my post re the Cfs2 as it seems the Cfs2 site is stuck on 9/12. Looks like TT, as of today’s link, is more current. Those government guys are tricky!
  19. Eskimo Joe
    That's a pretty ugly 500mb chart for December. Hello 65 and sunny on Christmas.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    "When in doubt, forecast drought."
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think it was last year, we didn't have a TC from August 28-September 16. [The year before, we didn't have a TC from August 21-September 8.]
  22. wncsnow
    CAD seems likely. I'm more interested in what may potentially develop in the Gulf or off the SE Coast. Euro and other models hinting at something. Potential heavy rains.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basically, high AAM means that the hemisphere is more representative of warm ENSO, low AAM cool ENSO.
  24. soadforecasterx
    Seems like we are still seeing some good heating going on to push this el nino stronger.
  25. Gordo74
    Might make e11 shirts to manifest that one into existence.
  26. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    Hi everyone! I stumbled upon a really useful site and figured I'd pass it along. Check it out — https://silverwillow.com/. Would love your feedback
  27. soadforecasterx
    Climate Drivers: Anomalously high relative AAM values frequently occur during El Niño events and specific active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) due to broad westerly wind anomalies in the tropics and subtropics.
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