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strong UHI overnight - 26.6F here, 28F at DCA.

Eh - we all do it! Blame superstitious weenie-minds!

Very clinical of you....like the use of MI

Of course. I’m not speaking literally, though I understand it’s careless agency-assigning or anthropomorphizing towards the models to speak like that, and yeah I probably shouldn’t.

love the 3.3 right over my backyard but highly skeptical - believe this is a Trace - 2" for most of the forum. I'll happily take it to add to the holiday festivities.

What do you feel is the best move for you?

That's a pretty good hit from SW ME into S NH on the GFS...easily warning criteria there

RGEM isn’t too bad. HRDPS at 12x still looks good. Widespread 2-4

0z and especially 06z EPS mean and members show some serious CAD on Friday. Love the thermal gradient even on the means, with mid teens in ENY and 50s in SWPA. If this stays south or shifts further south we're likely to lose some of the QPF too, which is a fair tradeoff I think. We could also see a snap back north today after a major shift south. Fun times when there are multiple threats inside 5 days to track!

Gfs colder for tomorrow

It never used to be like that.....crazy.

Mixed bag and nothing super interesting. Dec 28-31 2008 & Jan 13-18 2000 would be the other closest. Jan 3 22 was a flukey storm and not a common setup. Analogs favor warm overall but the strong block brings in the chance. OTOH, analogs show past history isn't that dire rolling forward into Jan. The only rat showing up is Dec 2012 and it's not a strong correlation. I remain confident there will be winter wx here in Jan.

That area you’re in seems to be a tough area most times. As you’ve said, it’s always all around you…just not over you. You’ve scored some good ones too, but more often than not, your area seems to get jumped over. Weird. I’d move if it’s driving you that crazy lol. You wouldn’t have to move very far…in any direction.

we're climbing up the cliff together so we can fall in together. all over a 6z GFS run lol

I'm in the camp that risks with Boxing day event point towards more suppression vs P-type actually.

Friday is still up in the air as far as i'm concerned, I had questioned yesterday after that GFS run came out having that s/w be that juiced up just being northern stream driven.

We're all going over the cliff together?

I know the pretty red L is up in Lake Ontario, but sure looks like the icon is depicting a slp popping near oc, MD. Alas, enough of this jv model. OK trend tho.

I do that....any another suggestions? Move, north, south, east or west, maybe...

Warm up the bus

FWIW (little) the NAM and RGEM continue the trends of higher heights to our west and lower ones in the east at range. Same way the GFS has been trending. ICON captures the event and was only just a tick south though (in terms of wintry precip for us)

Not in the same ballpark as the gfs obviously, but the icon came pretty far S vs last run wrt slp located in the midwest/ov fwiw at 102

go ahead and "mock" it it won't be you and your family running out of food

At least the torch and SER are muted with the -NAO but these systems flying in from the NW aren’t what anyone’s looking for

Therapy