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Firat accumulation of the year ground starting to whiten!!!!!!

If the peak is Nov 25-30, history says strong -NAO correlation, based around Dec 30 - Jan 4.

18z GEFS hr384

Agree completely Carvers. Hopefully the Ec Weeklies are just going on lagging the MJO in warm Phases. As you alluded to, sometimes an SSW can foul up a good pattern for us so, may be that too. Models tend to go wonky before one too so, may be that too.

Long range models around the turn of the month are wanting to develop some kind of 500mb low north of Hawaii, +PNA under the -EPO/-WPO. There really no sign of a RNA pattern. That's why I think the 3-4 week CPC outlook put out today, Euro weeklies, and seasonal monthlies for Dec (CFS, CanSips) are wrong having the cold in the Upper Midwest, and a SE ridge, above average in the SE, US, and average in the Mid Atlantic. MJO could be holding strength going into 7-8-1 around the 1st half of December, and I think it's a below average temperature pattern everywhere east of the Rockies, at least for the 1st half of the month.

The West Coast low pressure area has already brought 1.25"-5.0" to San Francisco, 3.0" (3.0 feet?) to the Sierra Nevadas, and 0.3" to Los Angeles. There's much more to come for southern California and the desert. It's kicking the ridge in the middle of the country. Today, Fort Collins was back to 70-75, 75 in Denver, and over 80 in Kansas.

But that would be kinda atypical for a nina, no?

We’re definitely getting used to winning Super Bowls.

I don't give a crap about the Canadian warming later in the month, say what you want, I just like the pretty colors.

2021 was a complete non-winter. Hope this year doesn't replicate that.

Bretton Woods opens tomorrow. Can’t wait!

May need to go to bathrooms. It’s a concrete structure.

Probably threading wind advisory criteria early Saturday for Noon-10PM Sunday, 45-50 MPH gusts. Minor impact except air travel and where a wind blown branch crosses the road. Slot looks BGM-MPO through NYC-LI.

Can you shelter under bleachers ?

Flakes at the soccer field

Slim with the tilted brim?

72 here today. MLI missed the record by a few degrees with a 73.

CFS for December is lit! Advocating above normal precip and below normal temps. That can only mean ONE THING! We torch for the first two days of the month and rain like heck, then flip to cold and dry while the weenies cry.

I think it will be better than January.

February may not be a lost month this winter either.

Tomorrow will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region. Temperatures will again top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,385th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +5.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.534 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.2° (0.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

You thought he was me and I was him.

37.4 with light flakes Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Why?