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mm... this doesn't lower the value nor significance of the statistical correlation - which is the synoptic/ holistic in scale. Not a discrete convective level/meso analysis, which there are no known telecon that be be that discrete. For obvious reasons... The point is that the set ups tend to move that incremental spatial-temporal range in the 24 hour window. Hell, not every +PNA/-NAO creates a winter storm here, either.

Yeah it's often confusing for the general public... All too often you'll read a forecast such as " A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny with a high of 85". Don't even have a decent forecast discussion anymore to clear things up.

Showers this morning here with a T in town so far, but NC MN got a bit more and they need it being in a D2 drought. Hoping for a wet day across the area. Will be chilly along the shore with NE winds off the Lake. Highs upper 50's/low 60's.

I mean 81 instead of 85 so not exactly cold

Don't think many anticipated the wind aspect to be as impressive as it was with the morning MCS out in Iowa. The areas hit hardest had dews in the upper 40s/lower 50s shortly before being hit by it. Very impressive. Gonna get sort of some comma head action here, but no severe worries. Think our severe threat is cooked here, as redevelopment later today will be south/southeast of the area.

I've received another 2.1" of rain this morning. This puts June over 8". We are really getting clobbered this month.

Must be nice.

They might as well have put in the shrugging emoji.

A cold very foggy morning this morning. Had a low of 51 degrees this morning and about 50 feet of visibility coming off the mountain.

Anyone see the NYC point and click forecast from Upton for tomorrow: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 86. Seems a bit confusing, or is it just me?

it’s over up north.

SPC knows the NC wall of dry air

60 mph is pretty common in severe storms. 74+ mph is not super rare, but it's much less common.

Yeah odds don't seem great after that recon flight.

Saw a gust to 94 reported a little earlier to your west. How frequently do you guys get gusts 74+ out there?

Looks like those poor midwesterners are gonna get hit with everything but the kitchen sink today. 2000-3000 j/kg yikes.

The thing to watch for in July is how much the warm pool near Japan driving the -PDO interacts with the +PMM. The models runs in late June will give us some clues. Could be another overlapping pattern with some Nino-like and Niña-like influences to 500 mb pattern for North America.

Doubt it but today should be nice regardless out there. Destructive tag on that latest severe thunderstorm warning out in Iowa. As for here, expectations kept in check for tomorrow. Not expecting much down this way. Whatever ejects out of the Midwest this weekend looks modestly intriguing.

This should increase more once the +IOD gets going. Per Eric Webb, the record ++PMM is acting as a +PDO

Here, farther north in the city, we got 50+ mph wind as the severe bowing missed a hair south. However, this is the second torrential comma head we've been under in the last week.

So when Summer ACTUALLY starts, its cold.

No other place in this sub severe weathers like Cedar Rapids...

Looking like some crazy winds on the south end of the bow as well with radar showing 100mph as also mentioned in the mesoscale discussion

Another morning, another ripping bow echo at 8am in Iowa!

Slightly warm, mostly dry, and boring (for most) for at least a week