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Yeah Julorch looks above normal with no cool in Canada but not hot. A lot of 83-88 with dews and hopefully daily storm chances with the Midwest trough

Technically what you posted saying fizzle was the HRRR at range as well

most of it is dormant - the thing that gets me is these lawn cutting services still come around regardless using their high powered ride around mowers with a cloud of dust folllowing them and destroying your lawn in the process - I just use a weed wacker carefully for any weeds and higher grass.

Will keep this in mind

I hope the morning soaker is accurate! I saw it but the HRRR at range...

Like clockwork. 50% reduction. One more to go.

Hopefully the nam has a clue. Wasn't it supposed to be retired by now?

At least the sun is not baking the grass today.

A few days of warmth late month and early July and then cools off a ridge retros. Close to cancelling summer.

Thing is this is such a small area that a decent sized squall line would impact 90% of us.

I've seen this so many times this spring into early summer, this tendency for front side cirrus/cloud debris to erode back west, as the total miasma is attempting to move in from the eastern Lakes/N OV. We steal front side decent days and I suspect some QPF error occurring because this drying may not be well handled - speculation on that idea. In any case, it's endemic of some sort of vestigial if not outright troughing in the Maritime of Canada. I say "vestigial" because it's not abundantly clear why that is doing that. So perhaps something lingers that's less coherent. The NAO is actually neutral when this has been happening - either way... not obviously negative in the charts, either. It's like there's some sort of hybrid or very week -NAO that is below the threshold of numerical detection in the EOF. Tempted to say "non-linearity" ... that's when there's emergent forcing where the why-for isn't very readily - if at all - coherent to the observer. Complex. Meanwhile, W and NW Europe is being punished and persecuted by a Hadean heat wave after heat wave. In classical telecon methodology/correlative spatial relationship ... western Europe is positive correlated to eastern N/A mid latitudes. This has been failing miserably. This isn't first spring and summer over the recent 10 years whence I observed this apparent statistical oddity. I dunno... maybe it's a related thing. Maybe something of a local decadal odd-ball fractal. But we're supposed to be hotter than we have been.

It's a good soaking for most tomorrow morning. And I wouldn't call its forecast for today a fizzle; it's just more isolated with its heavier amounts, and it's a bit of an outlier in that regard.

A Flood watch is in effect starting at 2pm today. Rain will arrive from west to east later this afternoon. We could see some thunderstorms. There is still some uncertainty to where the heaviest rain will fall. For now it appears from 0.5" across NW Chesco to over an inch possible toward SE Chester County. Highs today and tomorrow will be several degrees below normal with the clouds and rain. We dry out later Tuesday through much of Thursday before more rain arrives Thursday night into Friday.

A Flood watch is in effect starting at 2pm today. Rain will arrive from west to east later this afternoon. We could see some thunderstorms. There is still some uncertainty to where the heaviest rain will fall. For now it appears from 0.5" across NW Chesco to over an inch possible toward SE Chester County. Highs today and tomorrow will be several degrees below normal with the clouds and rain. We dry out later Tuesday through much of Thursday before more rain arrives Thursday night into Friday.

All-time temperature records are again falling in France. As of early this afternoon (local time), 2026 had produced the tenth most all-time records for any calendar year (and second most in June). By the close of today, 2026 will very likely rank 6th highest. Seven of the ten years with the most all-time records have occurred since 2015.

This is a good point because it may well be pretty similar to what we end up doing in the N Pac this winter, with warm water east of Japan AND along the west coast. Yeah its a problem when we only want to use recent years as analogs yet all of those years are biased towards -PDO and +AMO. That won't work when we buck the trend.

Most of the area will see little to no rain

Cloudy again here. WB 12Z HRRR through midnight is not impressive for most of us. More of a fizzle I'm afraid....

No changes really on the 13z SPC outlook.

I'm not really sure where the convection will come from to produce these thunderstorms. With overcast skies, it maybe reaches the low-mid 70s at best, so there will be little heating up of the surface.

May get some loud overnight elevated convection tonight across SE CT into MA and far SE MA

That number is only going to skyrocket with yesterday's tors too.

does look clear esp. over MoCo as of now, though there are some clouds to the west so unless those dissipate as they move out of the mountains, we'll probably have intervals of both clear skies and some cloud cover:

Gimme that! I don't want severe. I'd love to see multiple rounds including some after dark with lightning and long, rolling thunder.

Good amount of sun on the way to work this morning.