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GFS and EURO both very wet for the eastern US

I dunno about early spring around here anyway... Not speaking for back-town states everywhere, but this part of N-central MA still looks like the Middle East (forced) conflict went ahead and dominoed the world into a nuclear exchange. Lawns and fields are beige. Not even the forsythia buds are swelling. nothing - It does however hurt your hands to hold onto cold steering wheels on the way to work - so ...I dunno, is that an early spring? It may look early by some scalar recognition/in isolation over who-knows-what one is using, like a few verified daily highs/low temperatures? not good enough. If so, that utterly fails in relativity to every other metric that really matters in making the distinction in a fair and objective way. Fwiw - April 1st. It's been that way in the guidance for over 10 days worth of aggregate head bang to wall persistence. The thickness tapestry alleviates "blue"/sub 540s by a bigger percentage than has been the case yet this early transition season, thus far. That combined with post March 21 and a back ground CC aspect that is for some reason hell bent on being fudge packed into the SW so that no one else has a clue that we are still a part ... may have a chance to start busting machine guidance high and pushing real green up. But Scott's right ... there's a probably at least a transient warm afternoon or two prior to that happens. Kind of like bleeding out ahead of time and an indicator for the old timer in the rocking chair to took his pipe and say, "I reckin the change she's a-comin"

Yes. When you have a vegetable garden you remember this stuff pretty damn well. We’ve been having last freezes consistently in 2nd half of April. 20th ish…

Solidly AN month so far.

Low of 45. Nice day today, followed by another solid rainfall tonight, and then some downright cold days tomorrow and Saturday. Onward.

heavy rain and storms in the future tonight.

That's an interesting point and something I was thinking about last week - very rarely does SPC scale back on their outlooks until the event has passed any given area of the country. I honestly can't remember it happening though I'm sure it has. Very high percentage of the time the map gets expanded, though.

Like I said to Mikeymac, I may not understand the love of winter, but I at least try to respect it.

Looking like a wet pattern will be developing

I know it ain’t even April and this is kinda like someone calling off winter before January, but severe season in the mid south east of the Mississippi river ain’t looking so great this year. Week 2 and 3 from NIU… yikes .

If it’s above freezing at night it’s a beautiful day.

Saw my first flash of lightning of 2026 driving into work this morning. Storm missed me to the north.

@so_whats_happening, I helped grade once back 6 years ago or longer maybe for a month, Central Park was used for NYC, the Denver airport was used, and Sea-Tac for Seattle, O'Hare for Chicago, Bush for Houston.

Yeah agree. Could be a wet summer. Hopefully means storms.

3 weeks ahead? Wine?

The early spring continues on track. It just doesn’t look or feel great because, well, it’s Mahch and early April in New England. The latest guidance looks like we’ll be about three weeks ahead of last year in terms of the green up. I don’t see one morning below freezing after this weekend, the 29th , in seacoast NH.

I would expect more of that this summer...not going to get into summer outlooks because frankly, the interest isn't there and I'd end up fired and divorced...but I think the smart money is on the emergence of a much wetter pattern.

Perfect time of year to check out of the weather and immerse oneself in baseball.

0.02” Some breaks to the north 36.7°

IMHO the default position should be that it will relocate given a strong enough El Nino because that is what has always happened...sure, you could argue that the magnitude and residence of this particular warm pool is unprecedented, but I can tell you what else is unprecedented....ANY type of pattern or SST signature becoming a permanent fixture in the hemisphere (general warming notwithstanding), so in that sense we have plenty of evidence. This is akin to me arguing that the warm east/cold west/+WPO pattern wasn't permanent, which we now know for certain.

I think we could eliminate the possibility of a high-end NE snowfall outcome in that case...mid Atlantic is different since they don't average as much and can exceed their seasonal allotment in one storm given the powerful STJ. I am with you on the cold...even if we do get a 2002-2003 or 1957-1958 type of El Nino, I don't anticipate it being as consistently cold as last season.

Box AFD has the rain well over the ocean by daybreak. Meanwhile it’s raining back to the Berks

The new normal has been record marine heatwaves across multiple ocean basins influencing our sensible weather. Oscillations and teleconnections will continue to exist. But the competing nature of the marine heatwaves will allow them to be expressed in new ways. The next question is what becomes of the record SST warmth east of Japan that we have been experiencing since the late 2010s? I see you are in the same camp with Paul. I haven’t taken a position yet on whether a strong enough El Niño can cause it to shift to another part of the Pacific basin. So right now I am in the open camp since I don’t have enough data to make a call yet. But I agree with you that we would need to significantly weaken it to allow for a very strong +PDO to emerge which we last saw back in 2015. The long range climate models maintain the warm pool there into the late fall and perhaps early winter. Beyond that point who really knows. But it will be interesting to see how things play out going forward. Since we have never experienced a warm pool there if this magnitude lasting nearly a decade before.

Yeah. I didn’t really expect rain this morning. lol at my point n click saying mostly sunny today.