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JB this morning: While the MJO is shown in the charts to be in the null phase. The current way we get there is has a strong vv pulse coming through the Indian Ocean that is associated with phases 3/4. and those are very warm in December. And this looks correct to me. But its coming and going fast and that cold is building in Canada. It collapses and in the 10-15 we are back to a phase 8/1 look. So I would expect a rapid response back the other way after that So I think Paul Roundy has a good idea here and after I got a chance to look, I agree with his assessment

Had 2.8" at home and it had switched to rain, side streets were a mess but the freeway was fine.

Euro was ruined with the latest update a few years ago. The model use to nail storms days out.

I could see a low-end warning if everything broke right.

Did AI do well with the last event or fail miserably? I don’t recall

Peoria looking like the better spot to be for the first wave. Northern IL is trending towards a dog turd duster on the globals.

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me. Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience; flat 1000+ mb surface waves sufficating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far on the northern arc. More typically, that's a narrow band. If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a less it is about to learn.

Yeah that’s pretty much the perfect way to describe it. This thing has always had a lower ceiling, but I wouldn’t shut the door on something minor yet.

6z Euro is looking good for the late Saturday night into Sunday chance of an Advisory type of potential.

It's not ideal, but correctable with ease at this range, especially given the sensitivity to subtle changes that we are seeing in guidance as a result of the phase on the fly.

That’s not a bad look at this early stage. I think we see imported on out.

This snow hole issue we’ve been having over our area the past few years is nothing short of incredulous. Snow to the north of us. Snow to the south of us. Snow to the west of us. The combination between the -PNA and the raging northern jet is just killing us. By no means am I throwing in the towel for winter 2026, but I’m already looking forward to winter 2027 with an El Niño and +PNA.

EURO and EURO AI focus on SE areas, GEFS mostly OTS, and GEPS develops a bit too late, but decent SOP.

I’ll take a quiet period at Christmas.Though I’d to cash in the last of the clipper train Pattern reload.

Yeah the snowpack took a surprisingly big hit. Nice squalls moving in from the north. Ready 2 squall.

This is similar to what happened last year at this time with the models. Last December started with the extended guidance locking in the -EPO for the whole month. But as we approached the December 10th, the models caught onto how much stronger the Pacific Jet would be and the warmer +EPO pattern. Now the Pacific Jet is forecast to be much stronger mid-December than was indicated last week. Notice how much deeper the +EPO vortex is forecast to be now even with a near record -WPO 500 mb block. In the old days we would usually have the Pacific Jet weaken and we get more of a -WPO -EPO block. So we are on track for our annual warm up from December 17th to 25th. The +EPO is now forecast to becomes more dominant for our sensible weather than the -WPO as the Pacific Jet overpowers the pattern again. New run Old run

Truth, somewhere along the way it all went wrong.

p rough look gonna end up a seriously two-faced month

How did ensembles in all camps look?

I wish. Many say we don't do snowstorms and winter like we used to. There is truth to that, but we also don't do heat waves like we used to either.

Happened a LOT in the 80s. The worst was 1989. Coldest month in my lifetime and the one big storm was mainly rain. Back then cold dry/warm wet was EXPECTED.

Unless all the other models start caving, I don’t trust the EURO/EPS anymore. It’s been way too overamped and flip flops wildly. It was really awful just 2 weeks ago with the 12/2 storm where it kept showing a substantial snow for I-95 run after run and then caved to the other guidance. It’s definitely not what it used to be and hasn’t been for a few years now.

Buy. Been touting that for a month.

Sunday, but in some cases, both.

That would probably be a bit better than implied across my area, over to @HIPPYVALLEY in Greenfield due to some modest mid level banding.