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A 14 year old schooling a grumpy 55 year old. This is legendary.

I thought rain was the likely outcome like you said a while back? Snow to the east of us is like, the opposite of rain.

18z GFS AI AIFGS Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24

0z runs will tell the tale.

With a great winter underway it's amazing the amount of jaded posts. GFS has us snowing pretty much for 5 days.

naw just hoping its a start of a trend back

I still feel like Rt 2 corridor is good for 2”-4”. You and Ineedasnowfix have the elevation advantage, but hopefully I can get a few hours of good rates to freshen up the pack.

18z GFS AI AIGFS

With commentary . This is for DCA since the station began there and does not include Dec 1989 which was even greater below normal due to time of year but not as bitter cold daily temps Gold-1994 with an incredible-140 for 7 days 1/15-1/21 Silver- 2026 with a -121 1/24-1/30 Bronze-1982 with -117 and a 10 day of -178 and a one day -33 departure 1:11-1/17 4th-1977 at -108 but only 3 days were at or above normal that month with 0,1,2 as the + departures. Fell below freezing every day of the month im looking at a few more but these well may be the toppers

Compare that to last seasons YTD

Whether you are at UVA or Farifax you dont want what the GFS is showing. It would most likely jump you at either one of those spots as well. Although what is being depicted has been the norm lately. So it is what it is.

You could be 100% right. Hell, you could be the smartest poster here. But I wouldn’t want you here at all because you blame everything on everyone else and you’re just annoying.

The thought crossed my mind... that's like the AI/ChatGPT version of this run were saying, 'yeah... there's a storm here but I'm not gonna commit on the western side because I'm negotiating a no-no'

This 1,000,000%.

Euro Weeklies don't look great unfortunately

I like how one 18z run of icon and GFS and people say. "models are going to the euro!".. it's just one 18z run and one of the 2 models is the crap icon. People jump too quickly for a storm still over 100 hours away lol. Unreal

Personally, if we can end up with a fun, decent event that can drop a few inches or so of snow, that would be a win as far as I'm concerned. Seems too many people are waaaaay too invested in some kind of upper end MECS to HECS event because some runs of the regular dynamic and the AI models showed that possibility lately...and then tear their hair out if they show anything less the next cycle, with assumptions about "trending" negatively and that's now guaranteed. I think most or all of us here are wary enough to not expect the high end solutions at this point this far out, as much as that would be nice. We don't need constant reminders about such things as "seasonal trend", "OMG, it's a Nina so we're screwed", "we never do well in Miller-B systems!", etc. Just freaking follow and track the event until such time that it's either nothing much, or we end up having something real here that's at least pretty decent. If you don't want to do that or can't deal with it, then at least keep the doom posting to yourself please.

The worst thing on this forum is when people try to guess what a model output will be out to hour 12

Reminds me of the Jan 2022 storm. I think Atlantic City got 18 inches and DC got nothing. Not say thing thats the final outcome but certainly plausible for sure.

Hanging our hopes on the RAP… this is what I’ve come to.

i'm seeing warm temps in my forecasts.....but i've seen that change on a dime too over the years....

Agree. I’m 80/20 plowable/memorable.

Yes, we’ve know the flavor of this winter and how the models are handling it for awhile now. Epic looks a week+ out only to start scaling back as we move up in time from there. My thinking is, the ceiling for this is probably a high-end SECS. Of course that means a nothing burger is still on the table. We just can’t know!

Umm yeah thanks for the scoop ..

23” with 50 mph winds out of the west with snow 2” an hour February 10th 2010. It was a MONSTER!! Never have I seen 50 mph winds out of the west with 2” hour rates for 2 hours straight a really crazy storm. It looked like a huyricsnd hurricane east of Ocean City Maryland.