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I remember several modeled snowstorms at day 10 over the past few years. Even some as early as late October. Since there are 4 runs per day of each global model that goes out past day 10 (CMC, ECM, GFS), there will always be more modeled snowstorms than real ones in the long range. It doesn't mean much until it's inside day 7 on more than one model. I'd rather see negative height anomalies and deep trofs at day 10 too. But it doesn't mean I'm excited for any particular snow threat and it doesn't mean I think anything looks different this year than last. What does feel different is that I've already observed falling snow locally on 4 separate occasions and observed accumulations twice. That feels different.

We have had year after year where models in the medium and long range have had raging SE Ridges and wildly warm anomalies for December. I'll take models showing a nice trough in the east with some energy around and take my chances with that any day.

The Vermont DMV uses this as a code for a suspension for Failure to pay Fines.

Models still have it progressing to Ph. 7 by the 1st and crawling through 7.

Nice. Congrats man.

So what was your guess last year during a La Nina dominated by +PNA? PDO was even more negative at this point last year. Could it be more -PNA? Yes! Is it a given? No!

Euro is coming on board with the GFS with some interesting weather looking possible around the Nov 28th-29th and Dec 4th-5th timeframe.

Scooter said NO

I hate being a downer, but I'm not high on snow chances in the mid- or long-range yet. I think there will probably be a cold shot after Thanksgiving, but wintry chances locally will depend on very favorable wave spacing and evolution, which is still too low confidence for me to get excited. The good news to me is that we are transitioning into the season where we can realistically analyze the models for snow threats. The bed news is we are still in a rut where legit chances seem very hard to come by.

If lakes in November can hold a duck the rest of winter is mud and muck???

Lost 90 lbs down to high school playing weight 234. Hopefully hit 225 by New Year's. Good eating and a honey do list longer than a Mt Mansfield winter. Prefrontal days are always warmer than normal especially this late in fall.

Lest anyone be in doubt that we are still in a -----PDO Lan Nina basestate take a look at the MJO forecast. It actually did a backwards propagation (often forecasted rarely occurring) in phase 5 and looks poised to do it again in phase 6. Convection REALLY likes to be in Maritime Continent/E Pac.

Makes sense imo. The solid wall to wall Winter's did basically what you described. High latitude blocking helped mitigate what trips the MJO made through the warm Phases. In some cases, it would go either low amp through or COD and come back into cold Phases( SST'S were supportive of that then). My guess is as your's, in that the MJO will make it back to warm Phases at some point as the SST'S are still supportive for that to occur at decent Amp. As you noted, the -QBO should help. Also, NATL SST'S have became more favorable in supporting a -NAO.

Just seeing a long range paste bomb brings seasonal joy after the past few years. Nothing like a little hope-porn to get the tracking juices flowing.

0.13" for Muttontown & 0.11" for Syosset

12z oper GFS's 29th NJ model impacter should not be summarily tossed... Not saying it's high confidence - how could I ... But typically the front side wave spaces, while major hemispheric mode changes are underway, are cyclogen active. In principle ...the period of time is okay for activation of storm systems. Way too early to be detailed beyond...

MJO stuff...First off, that is not a warm look for December. In fact, it kind of just crawls through the left side of the plot which is not something we have seen in recent years. It seems like the MJO almost defaulted to 4, 5, and 6. How many times have we seen the MJO hit the wall in phase 6 and not move? It looks like this time it might hit the wall while in the cold phases for once. That "could" mean an extended period of cold. If you like really LR thinking, I have to wonder if it can get through the warm phases(before winter fades) if it exits the cold phases in late December or early January. I think it can...and probably by the last third of January. That would give us two decent shots of cold if one assumes winter comes back during that last week of January. But that second cold shot can be difficult, but the QBO may help us in that regard.

Felt like winter late last night and early this morning as I had to bring my wife’s car in for service before a long trip. One cold November I recall about 25 years ago had a light coating of ice on the Charles River a few days before Thanksgiving. I’m pretty confident of our best start in a long time. We may have some driving issues the first week of December along the heart of the LES country. But I’m bringing my boots, ice spikes which may be needed, and heaviest coats, gloves, etc. It’s coming!

This was one of those easy snow day events that we need in January and February.

This feels like Groundhogs Day.

I want whatever Central VA is cooking: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12

Actually, I don't know why it posted that way. It was supposed to read "can you guess where I wish I was?"

Stay safe

The wave amplified much further west this run, so the low formed farther west and the cold didn't get a chance to dig as south as the earlier run either. Like I said, there is a trough in the east and some energy around, maybe something can happen.