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I can’t do it

Ya that’s a big shift from 12z, rgem and rrfs with gfs moving west at least give the AIs some backup

GFS not as impressive this run. Looks like less precip.

All the time man.

I give you props, you always go down with the sinking ship

My concern about Saturday is that temperatures in and around NYC will probably be around 34° during the snowfall. Even a GFS-esque burst of snow could result in a coating rather than several inches at such temperatures. That's why my current thinking is a coating to an inch. If temperatures could be a degree or two cooler, it would be easier for the snow to accumulate.

Good shift west in gfs and AI is solid

Wrong thread this is for the Saturday event

New GFS sucks for us by Lake Norman. No moisture

Yep tick tick

Well guess it’s just the NAM and its replacement vs everything else. What could go wrong?

Gfs is west. Gets some precip in here.

AIGFS another “solid it”

18z GFS west but not west enough

Yep I was floored by that statement as well. full context: ”I’d like my chances with this if I was NE of Atlanta in NE GA so up thru the mountains & foothills of the Apps in NC and possibly even SW VALots to like about where these folks are sitting right now. When it comes to overrunning style winter storms, I’d much rather be worried about precip occurring than getting the cold air in time, because the precip almost always verifies much higher than forecast.”

Gfs is west and clips dc this run.

I’ve been away at work since this morning. What did I miss?

Gfs AI still looks good

Gfs AI still looks good

CAMs will likely lead the way on this. Globals are not going to handle a WAA setup with great skill. Trends with short term model guidance will be the key from here on out.

Great look west of River there.