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Incredible how seasonal trends can hold on, whether in reality or on modeling.

We’re so back

Yea and there was more to come. There is this little ULL over SE Canada that is giving the models fits. Every model run keeps placing it in different locations every run. There is also now the question of a late phase. It would be extremely impactful if models go that way. Euro Ai being so far SE is a pause for concern still, and the OP is an outlier until we see the EPS, but not out of the ballgame yet

This is due to inadequacy of relying on the standard teleconnections with patterns like this. It was a weaker version of January 1994 and 2004. Those patterns were colder and sustained for a month instead of 15-20 days like this one was. While it doesn’t have a formal name, the key driver of the cold was the 500mb block north of Alaska. That is a very cold teleconnection in the East. You can find other examples such as 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. This was the coldest 16 day period around NYC Metro since then. Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 16.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 16.9 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 17.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 4 17.2 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 5 17.5 2026-01-25 through 2026-02-09 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 20.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 20.8 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 20.9 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 19.7 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 19.7 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 20.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0

Models seem to keep pushing that colder air further and further out. Wondering if it even happens?

Indeed. 06z euro says wake up mid Atlantic and don't shit the blinds just yet!

Interesting, last night cmc parallel is very close to this mornings 6z euro run. They attempt a late phase of the northern stream. It’s not a clean phase but enough to pull in moisture to the region

If one takes off about 2.5°, they'd be about as common as they once were.

CMC models are on an island

This baby looks pretty sweet.

6z Euro is a good hit for you guys It trended towards the cmc idea of that northern stream maybe diving SE last second to phase with it. More was falling after this panel. It also has that little ULL in a perfect 50/50 spot

1-3” N & W of PVD-BDL line still looks good. More up in C/NNE.

GFS

Doesn't matter for us, but that's a pretty awesome looking blizzard setting up for Minnesota and Wisconsin next Friday on the GFS followed by a fantasy I don't know what the hell it is.

…and calendar. .

This would be good for a nice slow and steady melting. .

Heck of an inversion.

This looks like the kind of map someone like I would make. .

I have now lowered my confidence in them as they have increased confidence in lowering confidence.

2-4 here should be solid . Reggie is locked in

While it lasts? C’mon... It’s been nippy nearly the whole season since thanksgiving. [emoji849] .

Lot of EPS hits

I guess WPC will have to redo their overnight qpf maps which have 1+ for most of ne

6z gfs takes it to cuba and then the yucatan. lol I can’t recall a model doing anything like that with an ULL before