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NASA GISS uses 1951-1980 for its departures with Canada going with 1961-1990. That was the last relatively stable temperature regime before emissions and temperatures really took off. So using warmer 1991-2020 climate normals masks the warming relative to the past. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/world-of-change/global-temperatures/ The NASA GISS team chose the period of 1951-1980 as its baseline largely because the U.S. National Weather Service uses a three-decade period to define “normal” or average temperature. The GISS temperature analysis effort also began around 1980, so the most recent 30-year period was 1951-1980. Their objective is to provide an estimate of temperature change that could be compared with predictions of global climate change in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, aerosols, and changes in solar activity. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations.html Much of Canadian economic and social activity is climate dependent. Understanding how Canada’s climate is changing, in the context of global climate change, is important for developing adaptive responses. The Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin (CTVB) helps communicate to Canadians how Canada's climate has changed over the recent past and longer, over the period for which Environment Canada has climate observations. The CTVB describes climate variability through maps of current and past departures from the mean (the 30-year average 1961-1990) temperature and precipitation conditions, both seasonally and annually. This approach provides visualization of the extent to which temperature and precipitation vary above and below longer term average conditions. Maps are presented for each season and year. The data are then analyzed to see if there are detectable trends of longer terms against this backdrop of climate variability for Canada as a whole, and for 11 climate regions. This information is presented as graphs with trend lines to assess climate change over the period of record, starting in 1948 when nation-wide records became available.

Pouring with T&L.

Um yea no seasonal models are bad the last 2 winters should be exhibit a, im as much of a weenie as the next guy but im not holding my breath next winter for sustained cold and snow ( here in the mid atl) although there is certainly an increased chance of a big storm w a mega juiced stj, but cold? highly unlikely maybe feb will be cold and thats it

Good ole fashioned gullywarsher here in silver spring

Some of the heaviest rain I’ve seen here driving down Georgia Ave from Olney.

Missed on the heavy rain. 0.20” here

Yet, and this may have already been mentioned, most modeling shows the upcoming MJO having an affinity for the Maritime Continent. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

Well ours is from a FiberOptics company digging trenches in our yard in January to lay cable. And then just dumping the clay they dig up putting seed and straw down as if that would grow back. It was a neighborhood wide project and they chose for whatever reason not to use the easement.

At that point further north, you're essentially trading cold(er) air for potential improvements in moisture, if perhaps a greater risk for ice. In my opinion, that could cancel out the warmth's detrimental effects if not add to the snow total average if you can get a good background pattern instead of the polar jet constantly lagging back into Canada.

Absolutely pouring here.

Good thing NA is on the verge of its cooling-off phase here in the troposphere; it'll be good to see the STJ start to go in a month or two as that temp. gradient becomes apparent

That's quite impressive looking too! I'm not quite sure what to expect with this thing other than a powerhouse STJ. It's unprecedented in many ways. I'm having fun just monitoring it. Tons of interesting aspects. Really fascinating event.

Worth nothing that if you get far enough north and or high enough in elevation in new england the correlation between cold and snow becomes almost nil. The climo there is cold enough that a 5-6 F + winter does not meaningfully affect snow odds. If you plot snowfall versus temp for a place like Stowe VT it will essentially be a random scatterplot with no correlation.

Seems like some rotation on that one moving north out of Columbia

Just be clear... Are you saying Wiz is in correct in his analysis of what the parameters will look like overhead from late tonight through tomorrow? Or are you saying you can see what he's looking at but they won't produce the outcome he is expecting?

TS Lee vibes

pouring rains. almost 1" in the last 30-40 min

Our standards seem to be getting high if 1.5” of rain is the barometer of worthy rain. A half inch will soak in nicely.

Cfs2 has been hitting hard in October for a while. Considering how far away we are from October, it might be the biggest yet if correct. But is that signaling the big finale? Idk. Just wondering based on an apparent November forecast peak.

81.6/71 Dewtylicious

Below is the Chester County PA Climate Summary for July 2026. We finished the month with an average temperature of 75.0 this is 0.8 degrees below normal our average rainfall across the county was 4.36". This was our "chilliest" July since the 74.9 in 2021. Overall we finished as the 61st warmest and 66th driest July over the last 134 years. Our warmest July was the 78.7 in 1999 our coolest July was back in 2009 with an average temperature of only 70.9 degrees. Our wettest on average was the 11.64" average across the county way back in 1919. The dryest on average July was the scant 0.68" average back in 1944. Overall through the first 7 months of 2026 we have an average temperature to date of 51.9 degrees this is 0.5 degrees below the average over the last 30 years and the 61st warmest first 7 months since records began in 1893.

Below is the Chester County PA Climate Summary for July 2026. We finished the month with an average temperature of 75.0 this is 0.8 degrees below normal our average rainfall across the county was 4.36". This was our "chilliest" July since the 74.9 in 2021. Overall we finished as the 61st warmest and 66th driest July over the last 134 years. Our warmest July was the 78.7 in 1999 our coolest July was back in 2009 with an average temperature of only 70.9 degrees. Our wettest on average was the 11.64" average across the county way back in 1919. The dryest on average July was the scant 0.68" average back in 1944. Overall through the first 7 months of 2026 we have an average temperature to date of 51.9 degrees this is 0.5 degrees below the average over the last 30 years and the 61st warmest first 7 months since records began in 1893.

You've done this for every winter. Nino, Nina, doesn't matter, you call for record warmth. Your multiple calls for a record warm winter in the East for 2024-25 and 2025-26 (easily accessible receipts) failed miserably. Neither you nor snowman19 should be patting yourselves on the back for being on the record warm train this winter when everything points towards it. It's like predicting that Shaq will miss a free throw and then being impressed with your clairvoyance when it happens.