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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think even if it were a Weak El Nino the model would show N. Pacific trough for the Winter. Not saying we aren't going to get it, just noticed that 100% of the time it predicts ENSO climo.
  3. MN Transplant
    The Virginia part of the line has gusted out a bit, but I have a cell going up right on top of me.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Dover AFB radar seems to have a good handle on the wind potential here.
  5. GaWx
    But this Nino at +1.8 is already stronger than 23-4 at its +1.5 peak. This is going to dwarf 23-4.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    The lightning strikes are impressive with this line too. Wonder if it's the boundary from the morning storms?
  7. Stormlover74
    Cell seems to have weakened a bit but is still warned Baltimore in a tornado warning
  8. JTA66
    Getting a car topper here. After a high of 89F, I’m now down to 82F.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still struggle with that, but have gotten better...it's just tough when you have a history of struggling to be receptive to alternative viewpoints and spend so much time and effort articulating your own thoughts....all of the investment, which is ostensibly a positive in that it's a vehicle for growth, tends to leave me more susceptible to undervaluing dissenting viewpoints. It's a balance between the understanding the that the incorporation of others' thoughts is ideal, and the instinct to be protective over an ideology that you have spent in an inordinately excessive amount of time and effort formulating. That is the essence of DBT in a nutshell...utilizing the ability to balance the extremes in life to identify and correct maladaptive thought and behavioral patterns to improve intrapersonal relationships. It's apparent on social media that ,any folks within weather circles could use a DBT course.
  10. Damage In Tolland
    Another very humid pattern begins next week
  11. Amped
    Wind died down. Just a downpour now.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    He really does know his stuff and has valuable insights....but I think unfortunately many get distracted from a great deal of the value that he offers by the obvious emotional struggles.
  13. Kleimax
    Honestly it wasn’t that bad here. I’m just north of Pikesville. Those velos def didn’t make it to the surface here, maybe a few 50 mph gusts in the gust front
  14. Kleimax
    What tilt should I be using
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same. Last time I had it out with him a few weeks ago there was an OT thread started and I suggested dialectical behavioral therapy to him...I was serious, too....I really think he'd benefit from it, as it would his interpersonal relationships. I don't intend it as some big insult, either....I've participated in it as a clinical and a patient and it's something the majority of us could benefit from.
  16. wxmeddler
    Those are bad velocities from the dust / bugs etc. ahead of the gust front.
  17. weatherwiz
    Yup...quite warm and humid will be the consistent theme well into the second half of the month with some days of average to slightly below average temps and low humidity mixed in when fronts go through. Should also remain active with convective chances
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The gust fronts with these mean business
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far.
  20. MN Transplant
  21. batmanbrad
    might be some rotation east of Cockeysville, Radarscope showing a TVS on it currently
  22. mitchnick
    I rarely agree with his conclusions, but always read his posts and appreciate the info he posts...even when I wish I didn't read it! Lol
  23. Scraff
    Ripping in Elkridge! Oh. That was just the gust front. lol.
  24. GaWx
    This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run.
  25. MN Transplant
    Viewing angle matters. TBWI has some big numbers. Virginia is not as robust at the moment.
  26. Stormchaserchuck1
    I used to be like that when I was younger. He posts a lot of good stuff, shouldn't take what other people say to heart like that. I personally enjoy reading his stuff, I don't have a Twitter account so it links me to all the ENSO stuff.
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