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GFS does something similarish to this weeks storm where it gets kicked OTS for next week. Sigh… gonna spend the next 4 days begging for it to come wear aren’t we lol

Why? Every short range model and euro plus gives me 3-4” lol I’m sitting fine. Ain’t worried at all. If it happens then cool, if not then that sucks but that’s weather. My original forecast of 2-4” looks likely to verify in NE GA and it still ticking west for us on every run including the all the mesos. Really sitting pretty. .

Paging @donsutherland1

Whether or not we get a storm, I still consider this stretch rather historic, not "wasted".

6z gfs laughs at 00z. She gone.

Insomnia got the best of me..back up. lol GFS looks more like Euro. Of course it does. But this time it's positive. This seems to be trended a bit better with each run. 3-5 It's a decent snowfall, with heavier stuff staying to our.....take a guess.

Be a man. If you say something, stick with it. Do your time. You promised you'd leave for two weeks. Do it. No one around here will respect you if you stay.

The models are all over the place because they can’t figure out how& where the storm will develop off the coast & how much dry air will get into this storm (from two directions) .. It’s definitely going to be boom or bust in many areas… If your in VA beach through Richmond area, that last NAM run is pretty much exactly what we need to happen to really get a nice hit in both places.It forms exactly where we need it to & pushes moisture back into both areas perfectly…

So when do we run out of fuel?

Got down to 1 at home so far.. very meh compared to yesterday

Clueless. You contribute nothing to this forum besides being a troll. Never have. I challenge everyone to go look back on all of your posts and find anything at all meaningful and productive you’ve posted. A completely useless, worthless member. You’re also not very smart. And I love how @brooklynwx99 put a laughing emoji on your post. Probably the worst weenie meteorologist I’ve ever read in my life. He shouldn’t be laughing at anyone after all of his epic busts since the 21-22 winter. I’ve lost track. Constantly predicting historic, best pattern ever, textbook, guaranteed KU coastal snowstorm patterns, which DC-PHL-NYC hasn’t seen since February, 2021. Dreadful. Always hyping snowstorms just like JB

Locals aren't impressed. Mostly to our east with a dusting in Chatty. Snow mainly Cleveland and east. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

It’s a direct consequence of the more eastward track and finding ourselves in the strong subsidence zone, while the more inland areas are in the deformation zone. There’s always going to be winners and losers in these type of setups…with a coastal low that’s bombing. In this particular run/solution, we are the undisputed losers. But like Josh noted, it’s still too early to pinpoint the precise location of these dynamics.

Possible. It's going to whatever it does models or not. In fact models are so all over the place I'm not sure anyone will be certain until its happening It would be funny if Richmond ended up with 9 inches of snow and TV mets had to get on tv and explain why they forecasted 2 inches. Wouldn't be the first time. Lol Doubt it happens like that. The realist in me says like 3 or 4 for me in Chesterfield. Possibly nothing. But also possibly 9 I guess. I'd give nothing higher odds than 9 I suppose

Models all over the damn place still. I’m everywhere from a dusting (NAM) to almost ten inches (Euro) depending on which one you look at. lol.

Looks like the gfs dropped numbers a lot for the coastal area.

Definitely, someone’s going to get screwed by the dry air. But that’s a now cast thing.

Looking similar to 0z

6z running … steady as she goes thru hour 30

You’re correct in that the NAM is more prone to exaggerated dry slots than the globals (such as the ECMWF and GFS). Even so, the physics still apply and is a definite cause for concern. It was also seen on the 18Z ECMWF, as well. In both cases, the dry slot was directly over my house!

Well, the NAM has a bias to overamp these things , so I’m hoping it’s out to lunch for now

That Nam run is just about the best run you can have for the RVA & VA Beach area… Everything just backfills perfectly & it’s not north enough to get more dry air pulled into it. Now if it could just actually happen like that .. lol