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Let's do this.

You read my mind. See post coming shortly on this thread.

It’s the strong HP to the north . Pressure gradient winds. Bigtime

I think you missed his posts from this past Sunday....

Did we not work out something with Mexico with regard to potential threats? Granted, Polo likely avoids landfall, but it will pass close enough to cause problems (i.e. flooding).

Qg-smegma says no, it’s all wrong.

no worries

From a 992mb system….ya not thinking that. Obviously this could deepen more than that, but I wouldn’t think that, at its current progged strength.

I just posted this on another forum. Food for thought for the upcoming E Coast storm! For several days now, the global models have been indicating an atypically strong non-tropical low for September developing off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts by this weekend. High winds, coastal flooding, and excessive rains are becoming more likely, especially in southern New England. Some models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, are showing a strong warm seclusion evolving when the low slows down and stalls for a time not far S of New England. I attached the 850, 700, and 500 heights/temp valid 09z September 27 from the 22/00z ECMWF that clearly shows the warm seclusion. SSTs S of New England are running anywhere between 2-4 C above average and are 22-25 C in the region where the low is forecast to slow/stall, more than enough for subtropical development, and with such SSTs we have seen full tropical transition before. Now I know this sounds like I am getting ahead of myself here, but one has to proactively think in the abstract and outside the box here, especially when it comes to atypical/outlier events forecast and their impacts. I know of no case where a strong non-tropical low transitioned to subtropical or tropical in this area of the Atlantic so close to the Mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. There was an intense non-tropical low that impacted this region in October 2021 that eventually became TS Wanda, but not until far out of sea in the central Atlantic. The conundrum I see is that if such a transition occurs, it may be while significant non-tropical land impacts from wind/rain/coastal flooding are ongoing. So that implies non-tropical wind warnings would have to be switched to tropical wind warnings. This presents a problem in messaging, among other things. We have policy/procedures in place when a tropical system transitions to PT/ET -- the capability to continue pre-existing tropical wind warnings, but what about when you have an ET low going to subtropical/tropical? There is no sensible weather difference between gale/storm warnings and tropical storm warnings, but a significant amount of the public does not realize or understand that. Going from an unnamed system to a named system? Well, I don't have to say how the media (social and otherwise) reacts when a subtropical/tropical system is named. But the meteorology operationally just can't be ignored either. A system is what it is. This is further complicated by the fact that days before non-tropical low develops, a strong pressure gradient from high pressure over southeastern Canada will result in gale force E and NE winds as early as late today over the marine zone waters off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast. In my opinion, the above is a non-trivial from a logistical and social point-of-view if such a non-tropical to ST/T transition occur in said region. A similar modern day event that did not fit or work within any current policies/produces at the time occurred with Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, which was also this very same region. The ante this time is not forecast to be on the level of Sandy, but nevertheless is significant.

It’s as if there was an underlying mechanism linking the 2023-2024 and 2026-2027 events together. Notice how Nino 1+2 never fully returned to La Niña following that event. Plus we got the Nino-like pattern in December 2025 with the small warming in Nino 1+2 and record +PNA for a December La Niña.

FYI...for some reason your images do not download or show up on my desktop or phone. It may be something in my settings but wanted to give you a heads up in case it is on your end.

Its going to be perfect beach day........

Regarding recons in the EPAC, they were hardly ever done prior to early 2000s, even for very intense systems. CPAC has always had them for those systems that were threatening HI.

My mother in on a cruise going through Portland, Bar Harbor, Eastport, Halifax, and then back to Boston on Sunday. Back half of her trip should be interesting. Is there a good model or site that shows marine forecasts?

Low of 31... heavy frost on elevated surfaces and a few areas otg. Cool spot is of course the Yellow Dog @ 20 degrees. brrrr.

It is interesting to note that the official intensity estimate by the NHC is outpacing ADT numbers. Raw T# right now is 7.5 but it is important to note that dvorak doesn't always handle tiny eyes well within such an explosive CDO pattern such as this, and I am sure the met on duty that just upgraded Polo is well aware even if we won't get the discussion and explanation until the next package. That being said, numbers are skyrocketing up. Recon should be there by midday. I have little doubt Polo will be a Category 5 and an intense one at that.

WIZ GW

Winds overall would be less in that scenario, but perhaps more prolonged.

6z euro op is funny. Retros pretty far south, stalls south of LI then was about to wobble back NE at hr 144.

I think the solar cycle plays into that to some extent....descending solar approaching peak geomag is prime-time for super El Nino...it's not a coincidence. Now, add the unprecedented degree of OHC into the mix and it's a perfect storm for mother nature to make a max effort at heat redistribution. I know @Stormchaserchuck1has often mused that these higher-end El Nino deals shouldn't be as skewed towards +NAO as they are, theoretically speaking....well, it make sense given that they usually coincide with near peak geomag during descending solar. I get the sample size issue, but I think we need to make an effort to think beyond that as a community, and the solar angle makes sense...only super Nino that did not occur in this portion of the cycle was 1997.

I don’t think that strong. 925 would need to be 80-90kts and I don’t see that. Mixing barely to 925 as well. Unless this deepens more.

Going to a wedding on the beach on Saturday in Asbury Park. How's mid afternoon looking? We got a chance of being clear until Saturday night?

GFS seems to chase the convection, leading to it's off shore solutions. Still a ways out though, could be correct, but I'm leaning towards the AI models on this.

i'm worried about my daughter coming from orlando thursday; they were saying last night the storm will be cranking already. normally i don't follow much this time of year, but damn....