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White Christmas here. It's been a few years. Merry Christmas all !

Merry Christmas everyone!

Consider me intrigued lol

You're so far from any level being even remotely close to freezing

Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (1964) NYC: 66 (2015) LGA: 64 (2015) JFK: 64 (2015) Lows: EWR: 0 (1980) NYC: -1 (1980) LGA: -1 (1980) JFK: 2 (1983) Historical: 1776: Thomas Jefferson noted that the first winter snow fell on December 20th, but did not last on the ground one day. Temperatures dropped to 30 degrees or colder on Christmas Day. That night, 22 inches of snow fell. From the 25th of December until March 6, 10 snow covered the ground, and some of them were deep. The first rain came on the 9th of March. In Frederick County, two feet of snow was recorded. 1872: Since records began back in 1887, Columbia, South Carolina, only a trace of snow has been reported on Christmas Day. Before records, 13-hour sleet, and snowstorm occurred in Columbia and surrounding areas. Credit goes to Cary Mock, a USC geography professor who specializes in historical weather research. 1909: A Christmas storm on December 24th through December 25th 12.3 inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area.(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1947: The Great NY Snow Storm that started on Christmas Day in 1947. The Great NY December 25-26 snowstorm of 26.4 inchesof Snow 1961: On December 24th through December 25th 10.0 plus inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1966 - A white Christmas was enjoyed by residents from North Carolina to New England in the wake of a major snowstorm. Even coastal Virginia was white. (David Ludlum) 1969: A major snowstorm struck the Mid-Atlantic into the northeast. Montpelier, VT recorded 39 inches of snow. 29.8 inches of snow fell in Burlington, VT, which was a single storm record for the state. Across the mid-Atlantic, Roanoke, VA reported 14.6 inches, Dulles Airport northwest of Washington, DC had 6 inches and National Airport reported 4.3 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History ) 1980 - It was the coldest Christmas Day of modern record in the northeastern U.S. Temperatures as cold as 36 degrees below zero were reported in New York State, and as the sharp cold front swept southeastward the temperature at Boston MA plunged from 34 degrees to seven degrees below zero during the day. (David Ludlum) 1983 - It was the coldest Christmas Day of modern record for the central and eastern U.S. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and thirty-four of those cities reported all-time records for the month of December. The temperature plunged to one degree below zero at Huntsville AL, and dipped to 14 degrees at Galveston TX. Snow covered the ground from the Pacific Northwest through much of the Great Plains Region to the Northern Appalachains. (The National Weather Summary) 1987 - Residents of Tucson, AZ, awoke to a white Christmas for the first time in forty-seven years of records, as a winter storm blanketed the area with up to four inches of snow. While heavy rain inundated Arkansas, freezing rain was reported from northwest Texas to southwestern Missouri, with an inch of ice reported at Harrison AR. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second day in a row McAllen TX was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A massive winter storm made for a very white Christmas in the western U.S. Las Vegas, NV, reported snow on the ground for the first time of record. Periods of snow over a five day period left several feet of new snow on the ground of ski areas in Colorado, with 68 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - It was a record cold Christmas Day for parts of the southeastern U.S. Morning lows of zero degrees at Wilmington, NC, and five degrees below zero at Jacksonville NC established all-time records for those two locations. Miami Beach FL equalled a December record established the previous morning with a low of 33 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: A Christmas storm on December 25th 11.0 inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area the greatest on record for Christmas Day. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1996: Record Christmas cold. Missoula, MT got 14.6 inches of snow for the 24-hour period ending 3 p.m. on Christmas Day, the second highest one-day snowfall in the area since 1936. The snowfall was memorable as it broke the record for the most snow ever in any December with a week to go. Minneapolis set a record low for the date of -9, breaking the 1933 record of -6 and making it the coldest Christmas since records began over 100 years before. In Bismarck, ND, the mercury dipped to -10, breaking the 1892 record of -8. The temperature fell to -37 Wednesday in International Falls, MN. St. Cloud MN tied their record with -25 degrees and Glasgow MT set a record with -36 degrees. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2001: Buffalo, NY was buried under 25.2 inches of snow in 24 the city's third greatest 24 hour snowfall on record. This record was exceeded only two days later. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History ) 2002: A major snowstorm moved up the east coast on Christmas Day, 2002. Widespread snowfalls of a foot or more occurred across much of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, with amounts as high as 30 inches reported over the northwest slopes of the Catskills. 2003 - Heavy rains affected areas of southern California that were just recently ravaged by wildfires in October. The downpour produced flash flooding that resulted in mudslides, taking the lives of 15 people at area campgrounds in San Bernardino (AFP). 2004 - Snow fell on Christmas Day in Deep South Texas. Snow totaled 4.4 inches in Corpus Christi, making it the second White Christmas ever. Farther north, Victoria had their first white Christmas on record when 12.5 inches of snow fell. 2006 - Severe thunderstorms produced four tornadoes in Florida. Columbia, Pasco, Lake and Volusia counties were hardest-hit, including the Daytona Beach area. A tornado generated considerable damage on the campus of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, delaying the start of the spring semester (Orlando Business Journal). 2010 - Up to 32 inches of snow and blizzard conditions affected parts of the eastern U.S. on December 25th�27th. A state of emergency was declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Maine. In New York City, up to 24.5 inches of snow fell, effectively shutting down rail lines, major airports, and bus services. Thousands of flights were cancelled and stranded subway riders were forced to spend a night in unheated train cars. One person was reported killed in Maine due to the weather conditions. (NCDC)

I mentioned that a couple days ago. maybe someone pulls a bonus fluffy inch or two along typical spots

Merry Christmas yall! I hope everyone has a great day. Finished this just in time for Christmas.https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/2025/12/24/yancey-county-woman-moves-into-new-home?cid=share_fb&fbclid=IwdGRjcAO6Ky1jbGNrA7orJGV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHomQc4o5iDT5sXw-O9JN2vvRl_fYYZn97lg9-ffEz5yYq-GYkZL8G4I5SHSP_aem_mwyLSAs8zFbK_gjZTfRYqg Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

NAM leading the charge unfortunately. How many times over the years have we discounted its warm push only to be burned . If I’ve learned anything it’s that

Merry Christmas to those who celebrate. It’s an official white Christmas in Minneapolis with a snow depth of 2” at the airport. Historic odds of a white Christmas are 71% in the city but rise to over 80% in the far northern metro.

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Yeah I was looking at mid levels and there’s an area that looks like it would be pounding but it’s north of the good QPF. Wonder if there is an undermodeled death band for a few hours near that northern line.

I’d take some herpes.

Very odd indeed but NWS Albany is always late putting up watches and warnings. There should be a watch up with start time less than 36 hours away. Dutchess county needs 7 inches in 24 hours to reach warning criteria but to post nothing is ridiculous especially with holiday travel. They can always change to WWA or warning.

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the Herpes yet. And yeah, this has the look of a super sharp cutoff

Remember around Thanksgiving when we thought we were going to lose the first 2 weeks of December & then things would look better towards mid month…? Reality is that we had well below normal temps & most have had a couple of measurable snow events. This upcoming pattern looks variable with chances if of course the timing & track are right.

3K NAM shift

Merry Christmas 39 / 27 on this Christmas morning - cloudy. Warmest day of the next week (maybe Monday ties it). Snow/mix /sleet storm tomorrow night into Saturday. A bit tempered with the cold as Bluewave had mentioned but im sure we'll teeter day to day forecasts. Overall cold with the coldest 12/30 - 1/2. Moderation beyond there to a warmer / near normal overall.

FRZ or Sleet?

Wow, NAM now has -9C @ 850 during height of precipitation and low exiting southern tip of Delmarva….casual 100s of mile shift south. This being said, I would not out too much faith in this model getting any details right…trend is obvious though, back towards GFS/Euro

Meanwhile I don’t have any watches or advisories for my area. Very odd since everyone else has them. .

NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous

The HRRR tends to be too wet at this range, so precip amounts are likely somewhat overdone. The snow map is using dynamic snow:liquid ratio calculated by the HRRR. What is interesting is the 12 to 13:1 ratios from western LI and NYC to NE NJ.

I feel like those are modeled every decent storm, then fade quick as storm starts, models are more weenies that us.. They happen but are very rare ..

oh not a fan of his