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To reply to MYSELF, at about this range the gfs started trending away from the storm we just had then had to spend a whole day coming back.

Hey now, I used to be one of those air traffic dicks.

If this storm is legit gfs won’t get it right till 48hrs out anyway. Did absolutely awful last system.

BAM says that the GFS is fulla shit like it normally is and it'll correct NW,

15.1 total for yesterday and whatever little bit we got overnight. Flurries for most of the morning. We'll see if we can pull of another inch or so later today. Radar looking good.

So far, doesnt look like the GFS at H5, so not too hopeful at the moment

GFS is a step back from 0z and 6z for sure.

Moderate to heavy snow, large dendrites in Lebanon.

AI models looks like right now have skill in the mid term as they learn they should get better, So just another tool in the pouch for now.

Finally dug out. 17” compacted. 19-20” here

I can already tell this GFS won't be the one

Thread started in NE forum. This has legs at 5.5 days. Pattern is legit. I wonder if I can bet on Kalshi how people on this forum will be staying up for Euro runs on Thursday.

GD I am tired from last weeks tracking and this weekends shoveling. But here I am about to do the same thing this week...

I cleaned off my car and my spot last night and woke up to a few more inches of snow added to it, didn't see that coming. @ag3how much did you add up last night?

And that's where the AI adaptation comes in to play...AI enhanced systems can add those pieces of the equation back in without consuming large amounts of computing power compared to the traditional system

west of elizabeth could be the watchungs.....been on them and it was sleeting or snowing, come down to 22 and its raining......

Ridging oiut west a little flatter so far

So pretty much like any storm around here? Got it

used to work down at beaver dam rd in the 80s...the old fisherman magazine. fun times. they don't even have a building anymore, it's all online and i heard the office was too far gone after Sandy.

We all love ice sledding on the steep hill in our backyard.

Nothing noteworthy on the GFS yet...similar to 6z..some noise level changes

Eh I still think today looks decent for a general 1-4’’ especially across eastern areas. Maybe even a spot 5.

I've tried to figure that problem out for years...personally, I think it has to doe with the grids and physics engines for the upper air pattern. The closer you get alot of times the 500 pattern slowly ticks west..like the physics engine is too fast advancing leads to the old saying "models keep kicking the can down the road" in the LR. When they got rid of truncation and went physics based, they had to figure out a way to not consume enormous amounts of energy to run the system...so as the models advance in time, they generalize and remove some of the physics equation involved which leads models being to quick in upper air pattern. Just theory been working on.