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  2. jbenedet
    If you want to make a cogent background warming argument it’s that we have BN persistence in the northeast but N to AN tendency.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Highly doubt that persists through winter.
  4. moneypitmike
    The season is not record hot/cold until it's over. Let's' see how the remainder plays out.
  5. jbenedet
  6. pawatch
    54 degrees this morning. Awesome morning!
  7. bluewave
    94-95 was close to what the Euro seasonal was forecasting and not what verified. The closest actual 500 mb match was a much warmer nationally and less snowy version of 1995-1996 for DJF. Notice how the ridges overpowered the pattern compared to 1996. It was the first weak La Niña since then with a Bering Sea ridge, Baja SW U.S. ridge, and Greenland block. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO in recent years. Ridges have been growing stronger and more expansive. The spring pattern quickly flipped to the standard 2020s pattern.
  8. Kmlwx
    CIPS is not super-honking (the threat is there - it's just more muted). If nothing else - I am hoping for an event where I am working from home for a change (or at least in the area...) That said - a confirmed TOR passed near me up in PA Saturday evening (the Houtzdale/Whiteside, PA one confirmed by CTP). Was a few miles away.
  9. high risk
    There has been a clear trend in the guidance for more favorable timing for our area.
  10. donsutherland1
    The weekly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly rose to +3.6°C during the week centered around July 15. Only the 1982-83 and 1997-98 super El Niño events saw comparable or higher values. The last such anomaly occurred during the week centered around December 24, 1997 (+3.6°C). A strong El Niño is ongoing.
  11. SnoSki14
    Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot.
  12. snowfan
    Quite nice this morning. Low of 64 imby.
  13. jbenedet
    Nah. Tuesday/wed is part of the banner. Wall to wall sun is too much of a good thing. Need the rain to keep the landscape happy and the water bills in check.
  14. Kmlwx
    https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ Not posting individual maps since there are many toggles from the NCAR page - but NCAR highlighted areas would argue for continuing to shift the ENH eastward if it is correct.
  15. Kmlwx
    Latest CSU MLP guidance
  16. jbenedet
    Is this for Jersey or New England?
  17. moneypitmike
    Woke up to 53* here in Mattapoisett. Progged hights for Pit2 this week: Today 80 Tues 76 Wed 79 with showers. Thurs 80 Fri 71 Sat 72 Sun 73 All in all, I'd call that that COC.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    94-95 was really skewed by February. The rest of that winter (November-January and March) absolutely torched in the Eastern US and was actually cool in the West. I'd say 14-15 was the best match for 25-26.
  19. Today
  20. mahantango#1
    US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·oSnesoprtdah6a1lm6h2himht63569uagm0ct73u14i7tf9gt2c1i2tff16i · A strong low pressure system is expected to bring scattered severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, July 21st. Damaging winds are the primary threat, though all severe weather hazards may be possible. Remember that central Pennsylvania only sees around 5-6 Enhance risks a year. Confidence continues to increase for severe weather on Tuesday.
  21. IrishRob17
    50 for the low here, I see 48 up the road at KMGJ, I nice break from the warmth.
  22. ForestHillWx
    52 here; lovely morning.
  23. kdxken
    Looks like a banner week excluding Tuesday and Wednesday.
  24. MJO812
    63 here
  25. kdxken
    "In terms of rainfall, it looks like areas along the southern CT, south coast and the Cape and Islands stand to see the most rain, at the expense of interior Southern New England. Ensemble 24-hr QPFprobs paint moderately high (40-70%) probs of rain totals AOA 1 inch along the southern/southeast coast, and lower (< 40%) to the north and west. These areas have been getting quite a bit of rain lately, especially out over Cape Cod. " Rinse and repeat.
  26. Stormlover74
    Down to 56. Feels chilly out
  27. chubbs
    Nope. The Chesco COOPs cool significantly relative to the SE PA Division data from the PA climatologist. Regression isn't a good tool because the station changes are sudden not gradual and you picked an interval that started after the initial Coatesville move and ended before the West Chester move took full effect. If you widen the interval to 1941-1975, the difference in slope is large. Per table below, comparing the five years before the first move and the five years after the last move, the Chesco COOPs cool by 1.7F relative to the SE Pa Division. Note that the Pa SE Division includes the Chesco Coops so the two items compared are not independent. For that reason it is not surprising that the delta for the SE PA is slighly smaller than ABE. Funny seeing your persistent effort to dismiss what the the raw data from Chester County clearly shows. The 3 stations each cooled significantly after the 1945-1970 moves: first Coatesville cooled relative to Phoenixville and West Chester; then Phoenixville cooled relative to Coatesville and West Chester; and finally West Chester cools relative to Coatesville and Phoenixville. Clear as day in the raw COOP data.
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