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noticed ALY has taken the map away from the watch page, and the regional map doesn't match other offices maps, odd

Got some sleep, @Weather Willbrings the heat daily

Has anyone done, or know how to do soundings for northwest NJ? I've seen a couple for NYC and Philly, but nothing for NW Jersey.

Happy Friday weenies

Love that GFS run for my yard. Latest ens means have low pressure too far offshore, for now. Probably need the trough more neutral/negative sooner or its going to be a scraper/offshore.

The NWS forecasts have sort of been a mess. Watch text not matching maps, maps changing quickly, etc. Seems like it's NBM gone awry.

I believe that was the storm we were redoing a bank in Fairfield, started about 9 and they called us into the shop around noon, took 3 hours to get to Rt 8 from Black Rock area, and then another 6 hours from there to Waterbury had to go all back roads, highway packed so no plows could clear, nightmare. fun tho...

There is still a big front end thump of snow before the mix to sleet, that’s locked in. Getting back to the NAM, Binghamton NWS is expecting a possible turn to sleet all the way up into Northeast PA in their new disco this morning: “Models continue their jog northward for our winter storm Sunday into Monday. No major changes at this time, with still a significant snowstorm expected for the area with a widespread 10"+ with locally higher amounts possibly over 20". The finer scale models will be coming into play over the next 24 hours. It should be noted that the NAM and CMCreg are showing strong SE flow at H850. The NAM is notorious for doing very well forecasting the warm layers aloft and this will be something to monitor as we get closer. This warm layer aloft may not cause mixing per say, but it may significantly change snow ratios Sunday night across NEPA and possibly into the Southern Tier and this would produce lower snow totals in these areas if it comes to fruition. Also, mixing is not noted in our forecast at this time, however, a future change could be warranted if this trend north continues any further and this would also hinder snowfall totals across the southern forecast area some.”

I would place the Arctic boundary near a Canadian, TX to OKC to south of Tulsa line. I may be off on the eastern side of that as the DP change isn't as dramatic over there. Daytime will help define it better.

Zzzzz

Don't mean to downplay the NWS (well... yes) but honestly I haven't seen them as relevant in years. Except sometimes for alerts, they're always a day late and a dollar short. Last weekend was a perfect example

Considering NWS has me in 18-24” “could get a foot” seems reasonable. I’d go 8-12 for my area no idea what NWS is smoking.

Big improvement on the 00z euro. Hope we see improvements all around today

Live, Laugh, Toaster Bath. .

Looking at the euro runs for 18z and 0z I’m thinking DC and surrounding areas get the floor, Baltimore and surrounding areas get the ceiling. So I think your area could get more than a foot.

Warnings coming with the new AM AFD based on the AFD from 1am. Going with front bump SN to sleet . 1-3” sleet to FR. Ready to track the realtime surface features. .

0z eps and 6zgefs both increased the 10% snowfall quite a bit across the area indicating the chances for a low end bust went down. The 10% snowfall on the EPS is still around 6” in DC and 9” up here. That’s a pretty decent “floor”. GEFS is significantly better of course but it also increases the floor.

I was thinking the same. This reminds me of a few storms from the early 2000s. Models 72 hours out showed us getting crushed, ended up with about 4-8 with sleet.

Today's 3:33 AM Winter Storm Watch text now has an 8-15" storm total for the region. That's a lot of bumping down totals in a pretty short time frame, compared to that first snowfall map that came out at 1am that showed a bunch of the south shore at 18-24".

The last time I remember a SWFE type storm was in winter 2000. I remember it because the commute from Farmington to Simsbury was near impossible in my shitconoline van. Was supposed to be a couple inches and between 11 am and 4 pm we had near 10 inches. I don't remember if there was coastal development with that one, but I don't believe so. This has so much potential, hopefully we cash in

Fingers crossed Baltimore is still within striking distance of the ceiling.

Busy times ahead!

Yep. This is the kind of storm I've often seen when I was a kid. PA gets the most snow while we mix. I was jealous of State College then. But they've had a terrible, terrible run at snowfall in recent years. Like, worse than us.

We knew that would likely show up at some point. NAM... see you at 12Z