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Snow will blow into every crevasse and look like nothing fell.

I don’t think there will be much wind until the fropa.

The shortwave of interest for next weekend weakens in the convergence behind the NS energy on the ens means similar to the op runs. As we know, models rarely(never) have the location and timing of these wave interactions nailed a week out. Plenty of time for corrections.

Storm isn’t for 5 days…it’s gonna be all over the place…just another run.

Top 10 cold period past two and a half weeks for eastern US: https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/2019729810914992195

Lol…but all the snow from west of here will blow to us…it’s all relative.

We could see all your snow OTG blown EOR

13 here. Popular number the last couple mornings. Hoping for an inch or two with the upcoming snow but models seem to be shifting east with it more.

Yikes. 6z euro AI suppresses the 11th and 12th and then the next one after that. Everything looks less robust.

Yes, still looks like 20-30mph while it's snowing.. then 40-50mph as it ends

Even with a few inches on the ground, it could look like a ground blizzard.

But the main winds are after the snow

I told that clown yesterday he’d do well…but he just kept mehing it as we know. He Needs to really work on that…clouds judgement .

IVT banding can set up anywhere from Middlesex County CT to NEmass... In between those locations being favored for now.

Yeah, are those departures from normal temperature? Snow map can't be taken seriously for that long period of time. I will say delmarva was supposed to have mid 40s mid8of next week through next weekend. That's changed to mid upper 30s. The long range forecast for around 17-20 has possible upper 30s low 40s with showers and freezing rain, something we definitely don't want. Those long range will definitely keep changing as the transition from winter to spring starts to happen.

It’s a method from 2004 lol. It may be better in cold profiles, but ratios are all about lift in the DGZ and this method has nothing to do with it. You could have arctic sand and Kuchera will spit out fluff.

Broom job #8

Just use precip map and multiply by what you think ratios will be.. It will be very windy so ratios won't be maximized..

I dont even remember everything you wrote in those pm messages but the fact that you brought up salary was hilarious and made you look silly.

CERES net radiation continues to increase off the El Nino bottom set in late summer 2024. The last net radiation peak occurred in January 2023, as the 3-year nina came to an end. With growing signs of a shift from nina to nino conditions another peak is probably developing this winter. If so the next net radiation peak will be well below Jan 2023 levels and more in-line with winter of 21/22 and other recent nina peaks since 2008. Indicates that a portion of the unusually high peak in winter2022/2023 was enso-related. In-any-case the current radiation imbalance would support a rise in global temperatures to record levels if moderate/strong nino conditions develop as forecast.

I thought Kuchera was good for high ratios?

Reggie still going wild on coastal Essex county.

MJO going into phase 3 by mid-late Feb. MJO 1 (where we currently are) in a weak nina (-GLAAM regime) is actually warm for the east, 2 less so, and 3 is cold. Usually assume a few days lag, so the "warm up" behind the frigid saturday makes sense.

Ripping here. Eyeballing 3” so far. Two inch per hour rates with this band moving through.