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How’s the humanity bus goes over the cliff…

Too early for that No, it looks to me more like it’s just a regression to what happened all last winter Very sting Ninos more correlate to a sub tropical jet and on this side of the solstice with summer still suing we are nowhere near engineering that sort of hemispheric response until the seasonal gradient steepens next autumn/winter That is … if it really gets strong enough to exceed RONI numbing

Got slammed again with .39" in less than an hour earlier. Some hail but nothing bigger than marble size.

It will be interesting to see how strong the ongoing and rapidly developing El Niño becomes. Only the 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24 El Niño events saw the 6-week moving average for Region 3.4 reach or exceed +0.9°C in June or July.

Absolute perfection out there now. 76° / 48° with clear skies.

So when can we start to discuss the differences between how these two similiarish ENSO events will evolve?

So I should just pencil in my PDS blizzard warning?

Yeah its not a hot pattern, we'll see if we sneak in a day or two of post front/wave clouds and cool

EPS not much better there sparky

Above normal temperatures will return for the remainder of the week by Wednesday or Thursday. Tomorrow will see highs in the lower 80s. Wednesday should see highs in the lower to perhaps middle 80s. The temperature could approach or reach 90° to end the week. Parts of the region could experience a heatwave during the second half of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -25.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.597 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (2.8° above normal). That would make June 2026 the fifth warmest June on record. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

non-confirmed tornado warning with now hail high into the sky, 60dbz going way up there

Remember the last few time you did this . Posted op runs. And they turned out 20-30 degrees warmer upon verification. When will you learn?

At 7am

Monster trough next week

It was puking hail for a long bit for me, clogging gutters. But most of it half inch or smaller. Largest one I found was a hair over an inch, but those didn't last long.

Those of us with access to resources will probably manage ok and pull through just fine. It’s the ones who don’t that we need to be thinking about.

Annoyed I will be missing the severe threats in MBY due to a planned trip to Cleveland to visit family tomorrow through Friday.

I thought today was supposed to be warmer. It’s an absolutely beautiful day.

Since yesterday, the non-AI ensemble progged Gulf tropical activity has diminished other than for perhaps the Bay of Campeche, which would be favored to landfall in MX. (The AI never picked up on anything much.)

Hard to beat '60s and '70s.

Yea stick a fork in my yard Its done for the year

You guys already got 1" hail