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I mean you can see the trough shearing it off on the left side this morning. It's not just going to bulldoze into that, and even if the "center" does technically move I don't think it will matter much after landfall- going to be a rapidly expanding moisture envelope. My biggest concern about rain is coastal convection cutting us off. I've noticed a weak low type thing on the hurricane models and now the globals a little bit trying to pop off the SC/GA coast. Could cut moisture flow off some.

Ya…was gonna say, I have no recollection of that. But then I saw what you wrote about it being a Mass special.

I remember doing a similar thing here in VA. I was cutting shooting lanes before deer season in mid September 2009 a little late for that but I was 20 and stupid lol. I was fussing about the lack of cold and snow, during fall and winter. Though I was also glad because I had just enlisted in The Marines, and it gave me some more time to train before I got to Paris Island in March…and we all know how 09-10 went. Haha

Yes, that is precisely what I was intimating in my write-up.

I hope so. You'd think it would push it more eastward.

Yea we got crushed here. One swath went through my hood about quarter mile away. Another swath about a mile away that had big boy damage.

A big question going forward is what does the future relationship look like in regard to the equatorial trade winds vs WWBs following such an enormous warm pool push from the WPAC to EPAC?

Low of 51. Perfect weather for a few days and then some hurricane remnants make things wet and sloppy on Sunday. Carry on.

I've been looking for a late season analog that jumped NNW/NW after landfall and I haven't been able to find one. I think we see a slight eastward adjustment today to account for the trough coming in.

Hah, impressive guillotine. The core will not be that well put together on approach, it also won’t be totally gone by landfall

I see the Eastward motion help counteract the shear but as soon as it turn north, that is when you will start to see it get ripped apart.

Still a little disorganized on IR. Although, it seems to be fighting off shear a bit.

Pretty cut and dry from a historical perspective. Strong El ninos are either warm and relatively snowless or have a short snowy period inclusive of a major event. If we get that period then NC can easily reach above average snowfall. Basically an all or nothing HR hitter coming to the plate knowing 3 strikeouts are inevitable. However always that chance for a HR in the 4th AB.

I saw that...he's swinging in towards my early hedge. Usually he likes to tout a more rapid weakening of El Nino amongst data, but I don't think that is the case, so it's probably the EURO in general looking snowier.

Well this thing has trended west so we may not get much rain at all around here

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me. It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

All guidance has a weak PV....check out the UK data. Blocking in a stronger El Nino isn't too surprising, but it is given the state of the stratosphere and solar cycle....I still feel like it's overdone in the seasonal mean, but I have no issue with a blocky second half overall.

HAFS A and B are predicting a decapitation at landfall

Looking at this in more detail, the 1992 storm was never an ideal track for all snow in NYC/LI and SNE. This past event had a much more favorable track.

Yes, I think that it definitely part of it, but some more than others...I think it's also important to view the RONI relative to the ONI, rather than in a vacuum. A crude, but effective way to distinguish these more recent MC oriented El Nino seasons is to utilize the delta between the RONI, which separates ENSO-related warming from general background warming attributable to climate change, and the ONI. The positive ONI/RONI ratio in the four most recent El Nino seasons, which denotes a RONI lagging the ONI, is indicative of surplus of warmth over the western Pacific relative to the eastern Pacific, which is the very essence of the mechanism that focuses the convection there. Notice how the ONI and RONI are equal in 1997 and the ONI is actually higher in 1986-1987. However, in 2016, the RONI is significantly lower and the spread is even greater in 2023, with a RONI value .6 lower than than the ONI. ONI RONI RATIO 2023: 2.1 1.5 0.6 2018 1.1 0.8 0.3 2016 2.8 2.4 0.4 2014 0.8 0.6 0.2 2009 1.6 1.6 0.0 2006 0.9 0.9 0.0 2004 0.7 0.9 -0.2 2002 1.3 1.5 -0.2 1997 2.4 2.4 0.0 1994 1.1 1.4 -0.3 1991 1.7 2.3 -0.6 1987 1.7 1.6 -0.1

When you have jet fuel water temps unaffected by any other tropical system this year-yep that’s what happens. Luckily conditions should become significantly more hostile as it comes in.

The northern CT border towns do. But yes, definitely worse to the north.