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denier board

October is the wettest month here, currently 5.39" and the only month over 5". Thru today we've had 1.95". After April/May/June came in a bit AN, we've gone back to dry.

35.5 for the low with some frost

47 for the low here. Really takes a long time to cool down with the water proximity.

Hurts done for the season. Anyone else having Eric Lindros flashbacks?

broke down and put the heat on this morning.

The universe itself is a cosmic quantum computer read my thread in the science subforum. I did say that democracy does not work in a nation of idiots. Are these similar to the naturally occurring doldrums at the horse latitudes that Columbus experienced? But I never said it's an existential threat to humanity either. It IS an existential threat to our way of life though. Look I'm under no illusions about the usage of fossil fuels being stopped any time in the next 100 years. Even when they are overtaken by renewables they will still be used because the nature of humanity is to use every single drop of resource until it's all used up. The reason why an all of the above approach has been embraced is the same reason GMOs have been embraced the human population is simply too high and still getting higher. Until that changes nothing else will change. My issue with fossil fuel companies is their coverup for decades, their lack of accountability and the fact they need to be financially punished for all the damage they've caused. To the environment and in terms of billion dollar disasters.

The model did a good job with the general 500mb pattern forecast. Notice the ridge axis is actually now expected to be more amplified over the Great Lakes. But we got the low off the East Coast keeping our flow more onshore. So more of an Omega pattern than originally forecast. Also another El Niño feature. Once the low to our east moves out in late October, it will allow the ridging to shift closer to our area. But with the high east of New England, we could still see some onshore flow. With the trough getting stronger out West in response to the El Niño, it should mean a warmer pattern for us heading into late October and early November. The average split for late October and early November is around 60/43 at EWR. So any day with highs into the mid-60s and lows near 50° is considered warmer. New run Old run

low of 39F here - coldest since April I presume.

1983 and 2016 both had minor warmings.

I expect a minor warming (non-reversal) and wave-1 reflection event latter January into early Feb.

I know there will be disagreement on this but IMO, the antecedent conditions are not favorable for SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter despite the super El Nino…..descending solar coming off the max last year, high geomag, strong +QBO; still strengthening and has now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere where it can couple with the tropospheric pattern, +IOD. Very unfavorable IMO but we shall see

Here's the paper on the 1846 hurricane, from the SCI-HUB site: https://sci-hub.reatk.com/10.1080/24694452.2020.1838257. I'm a big fan of Prof. Cary Mock (one of the authors) and his historical tropical cyclone reconstructions. Chenoweth also has some excellent papers along the same lines. For instance, "A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98": https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/27/23/jcli-d-13-00771.1.xml Another late season hurricane which - while not as intense as Hazel and the 1846 hurricane - interacted favorably with an upstream upper level trough and maintained unusually strong intensity well inland was the "Gale of 1878": http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/galeof78.htm This is an interesting paper along the same lines which deals with several East Coast hurricanes from the late 1700s to early-mid 1900s: https://scispace.com/pdf/paleotempestology-reconstructing-atlantic-tropical-cyclone-103stxo9p4.pdf

I had the same exact temp as yesterday, 32.4

Wondering if we truly see it push east or get a result similar to this coming weekend. *Frames are cherry picked just to show for the example*

yeah... I was just remarking about this over the ENSO thread this morning. It's anomalously cold relative to pattern - which is interesting ... if one can keep personal druthers out of the perspectives. We've observed a trough scooting quickly through Ontario a couple of times, but by and large ... we've been above normal hydrostats over much of the CONUS below the 45th parallel, yet ... we are getting frost and freeze headlines and lows in the upper 20s. -the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually. We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics like the pattern. It's like we've been getting "cheated" from realizing a stunningly warm October along 80W over the continent, stunningly warm a lot of months, due to "pinch low" phenomenon and/or sneaky llv cool inserts, despite the fact that a truer polar branch of the westerlies (jet) has been situating N-W. It's interesting that we just cannot seem to sustain a westerly lower tropospheric momentum under this July setting ... like in Julys either! This whilst frost advisories underneath ...

Thanks. So, since this pattern of this offshore low and associated cooler air in the E US is likely indirectly related to the very strong Nino, is this possibly a sign of things to come this winter?

37.2 in Syosset & 35.7 in Muttontown this morning. Any winds at your station with elevation?

Good morning S h. Accu weather long range, as of today, shows December 3rd. This, of course, will change numerous times in the weeks ahead,

very warm 10 years ago Records: Highs: EWR: 87 (2016) NYC: 85 (2016) LGA: 86 (2016) JFK: 86 (2016) Lows: EWR: 30 (1976) NYC: 30 (1940) LGA: 32 (1940) JFK: 31 (1976) Historical: 1749: A tremendous hurricane tracked offshore Virginia, northeast to Cape Cod. At 1:00 a.m. at Norfolk, winds became violent from the northeast. The fury of the storm peaked between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.. In Williamsburg, one family drowned as flood waters carried their house away. At Hampton, water rose to four feet deep in the streets; many trees were uprooted or snapped in two. Torrents of rain flooded northern Virginia and Maryland. The Bay rose to fifteen feet above normal...destroying waterfront buildings. An account of this tremendous storm was given in the biography of Commodore James Barron, An Affair of Honor, by William Oliver Stevens. Barron's grandfather witnessed the hurricane first hand while stationed at Fort George. The account is as follows: "A threatening sky was observed to the southeast over the Chesapeake Bay. The wind increased which soon brought the rain. As the hours wore on the wind and rain increased in fury. Sometimes the downpour slackened. One could hear the sand picked up by the wind from the beach outside and blasted against every object that still withstood the gale. All the while the rising tide was rapidly being piled up to a height never seen before in that area. The waves were pounding on the shore, finally to the very foot of the outside wall at Fort George. A large tree crashed over on its side with its roots in the air and was driven against the land side of the Fort. With the impact the wall yawned and broke. Shortly afterwards the seawall lurched and sank at the point where it was exposed to the wave fury of the storm. Finally the outside wall of the fort gave way, and the filling of sand poured out, leaving the inner wall exposed to the blast without support. When this too fell apart and collapsed, the barracks took the full force of the wind. About sundown, the storm slackened and in another hour the rain and wind had diminished to such a degree that it was clearly spent. " The next morning Commodore Barron swept the distant waters with his spy glass. He was astonished to see across Hampton Roads a wide, sand promontory which had not existed there before. A sand spit had been thrown up during the fury of the storm, which was the beginning of Willoughby Spit. (Ref. Hurricane of 1749) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1844 - The famous "Lower Great Lakes Storm" occurred. Southwesterly winds were at hurricane force for five hours, driving lake waters into downtown Buffalo NY. The storm drowned 200 persons. (David Ludlum) 1940: 2.2 inches of snowfall was recorded at Philadelphia, PA starting on this date and ending on the 20th, for the highest amount of snow received from a storm in October. The maximum 1.7 inch snow depth measured is an October record. Baltimore, MD received 0.4 inches on this day and 0.9 inches on the 20th. Washington, DC received just a tenth of an inch of snow on this date followed by 1.4 inches on the 20th. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1961 - Rain changed to a record early season, heavy wet snow over the southern mountains of West Virginia. Leaves were still on trees, resulting in the worst forest disaster since the fires of 1952 and 953. One to two feet of snow fell near Summersville and Richwood. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel) 1984 - Thunderstorms deluged the town of Odem, TX (located 15 miles northwest of Corpus Christi) with 25 inches of rain in just three and a half hours. Most businesses in Odem were flooded, as were 1000 homes in nearby Sinton. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought rainshowers to parts of the central U.S., and ushered cool Canadian air into the Great Plains Region. Daytime highs were only in the 30s in North Dakota and eastern Montana. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds in eastern Colorado, with gusts to 63 mph reported at La Junta. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Record breaking snows fell across northern and central Indiana. Totals ranged up to 10.5 inches at Kokomo, and 9.3 inches was reported at Indianapolis. The 8.8 inch total at South Bend was a record for the month as a whole. Up to seven inches of snow fell in extreme southern Lower Michigan, and up to six inches fell in southwestern Ohio. The heavy wet snow downed many trees and power lines. Half the city of Cincinnati OH was without electricity during the morning hours. Temperatures dipped below freezing across much of the Great Plains Region. Twenty cities, including fourteen in Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date. North Platte NE reported a record low of 11 degrees. In Florida, four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 92 degrees at Miami also marked a record fourteen days of 90 degree weather in October, and 116 such days for the year. 1990: A tornado damaged an apartment complex and shopping center near Baltimore, MD. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1996: The opening game of World Series between the Braves and Yankees in New York was postponed by heavy rains and high wind from a major storm system affecting the East Coast, marking the third time in history that the World Series opener had been postponed. Overall, nine of the 22 games that have been canceled in Series history were scheduled in New York or Brooklyn. 2005: Hurricane Wilma pushed the 2005 season to the most active ever recorded, added another entry to the record books. The central pressure of this Category 5 storm fell to 882 millibars or 26.05 inches of mercury, the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in the Atlantic basin. Its maximum sustained wind peaked at 185 mph. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

What’s your elevation? If your up on the moraine at 200’ or something it makes sense. You’re cold on CAA but do not radiate well. I was up at whiteface in the Adirondacks a couple winters ago and it was -30 in the valley but -10 at the base of the mountain 1,000’ higher. .