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It should also be noted that at this time of the year, LR ext modeling can be extremely untrustworthy. It can flip on a dime. I thought the tropical system might shake things up(and it still yet might have done that), but the return of the heat ridge is at hand. Let's see if something can knock it down for more than 4-5 days at a time. The Euro Weeklies ext control can sometimes pick up pattern changes. It has extreme blocking in the week 4 range, but not crazy cold temps to go with that blocking. Snowpack in Canada may be well behind normal. This might be a winter where winter arrives mid-late.

It was a good winter.

Islip reached 82 today. That broke the daily record of 81 from 1990.

Well, it is still freaking hot. LOL. We got a bit of a thankful respite this past weekend, but the furnace doesn't want to quit quite yet. Looks like we have another nice weekend coming up. Leaves IMBY are waaaaaay behind schedule in regards to changing color. Just looking at the Euro weeklies(now daily of course), it looks like a monster block sets up in central Canada. I wouldn't exactly call it HL blocking, but it is gonna have to be dealt with. That block normally surpasses storm tracks but is rarely cold in that location - I could be wrong, but just thinking off the top of my head! It is basically a HB block. On the plus side(like our current temps), it could flip the AO strongly negative(per the control) if it is a bit further north. That could open the door for very cold air(which I don't see on modeling at this time).

Both are daily records whether they hit 90 or not

Heck of a model battle

I was installing a black metal roof today on the Came River. Ugh. Not a fan. Sent from my SM-S948U using Tapatalk

Definitely warmer next week but cold Sat with wind chills in the 20s. Probably wont break 50 all Sat with temps going down with sun.

Instead of asking if it will hit 80 degrees again before March 2027, we should be asking "Is there a month between now and March 2027 where it won't hit 80 degrees?"

I see IAD and DCA at 89 per 4pm official obs... I'm assuming both reach/reached 90

There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one: -1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71”. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS: -1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12: -1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62”: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf -1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” at CHS! -1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras) https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf -1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall it: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf 1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69”) 1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4”) https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf 2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

Its coming https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1Jv5zciTYS/

Euro backed off too.

Venturi

I'm finding this WWB more and more impressive the more I look at it. The MJO is diametrically opposed to el nino at the same time this is happening... Causing destructive interference. It's not until we close out the month and into Nov when it circles back to enhance the background state again. Causing constructive interference at that time. Expecting to see that through November much like the sequencing from the end of July through Aug. It appears similar in amplitude as that one also.

Low of 45 and a high of 83. Ugly.

Got hit with that in Oakland. Of course I cracked my car windows in the morning before heading into the office. Threw my back out sprinting to the car in the rain to close them. Drenched AND in pain.

Great winter here, especially the pack. Still 47" deep on April 1. (Not foolin' - had 19" on 3/30-31.)

Useless model.

NAM'ED (might be one of our last ones)

What a day. Had a downpour this afternoon at the office.

concerns

Any nudity under covers ?