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  2. Chicago Storm
    ORD and MDW ended up with 6 90°+ days during this heat wave, all consecutive. ...ORD... July 13th: 93°/69° July 14th: 96°/74° July 15th: 95°/76° July 16th: 91°/75° July 17th: 92°/75° July 18th: 91°/70° ...MDW... July 13th: 92°/69° July 14th: 96°/73° July 15th: 95°/76° July 16th: 91°/78° July 17th: 94°/77° July 18th: 91°/71°
  3. Chicago Storm
    It made it up to 91° at ORD and MDW on Saturday.
  4. Chicago Storm
    It made it up to 91° at ORD and MDW on Saturday. ...2026 90°+ Day Tally... 12 - MDW 11 - ORD 11 - RFD 11 - ARR 10 - PWK 10 - LOT 9 - UGN 8 - DPA
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a good point. This is 2 years after a Solar Max: We know that +AO/NAO is favored +1-5 years after Solar Max. Also, 4/5 Super east-based Nino's have happened during +NAO decadal phase (82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24 -vs- 72,73). This year will make 5/6 Super Nino's happening in +NAO decadal unless we see a 09-10 type -NAO season. Check it out.. 13 February's in a row have had +NAO, and most are >+1.00 NAO! 2014 1.34 2015 1.32 2016 1.58 2017 1.00 2018 1.58 2019 0.29 2020 1.26 2021 0.14 2022 1.68 2023 0.92 2024 1.09 2025 1.60 2026 0.68
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Probably not. I think we've already seen the worst of the heat. Unlike those years, we've had heat early and often, with 80s as early as March, 90s as early as April, and 100+ earlier this month. I highly doubt we see more 90-degree days in August than in June or July.
  7. sbnwx85
  8. WestMichigan
    That's a picture I didn't need in my head today.
  9. donsutherland1
    Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-211000- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0005.260721T1200Z-260722T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens- 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union and southeast New York, including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Richmond (Staten Island) and Southern Queens. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Average rainfall totals will be between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals around 3 to 4 inches possible. Peak rainfall rates in the strongest storms could be near 2.5 inches per hour. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
  10. sbnwx85
    Wow, even if it does happen, my area gets split like a pair of cheap khakis on Chris Farley.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. Unfortunately, my confidence in SPC has really been shaken since they've changed these outlooks.
  12. snowman19
    Here’s 1997 vs. this year, same time. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline this year sticks out like a sore thumb and like you said, we have record warm water volume this time around. We are about to leave 1997 in the dust….WWBs and DWKWs as far as the eye can see Subsurface: 1+2 SSTs: 3.4 SSTs:
  13. JonClaw
    SPC extended enhanced risk to the NE, close to the metro area now.
  14. Kmlwx
    Double post but deal with it We all need to just consider the outlook meanings as a whole. a severe report within 25 miles of a point can be VERY high confidence especially in highly populated areas where there are now an abundance of spotters and average joes sending reports in.
  15. Kmlwx
    Well I also think exactly what we all thought would happen with the new outlooks this year, has happened. It truly is that with forecasting advances, 45%+ is just not going to be super uncommon anymore. Everything has probably shifted upwards a tier. So 60% may be the new 45%. I think we will continue to see a higher incidence of 45% wind days. It does *not* mean that there will be more outbreak days. We have to sort of re-train our brains at least on the wind side of the outlooks. We used to get super amped for a 45% wind day....that will be like a 30% in the past. Sure - it's better than 15% but it's not like a derecho is coming through. If 2012 evolved in this new outlook scheme - as SPC upgraded that night with the line approaching - we probably would have gotten a 90% prob...
  16. radarman
    Yes in April and we'll see for how long. "Enjoying" low 100s this week, but headed back to the valley and maybe get a beach day on the cape this weekend. We still haven't been as hot as what SNE had been this year, and much less humid and smoky too. Plus the super nino might take some of the sting off missing winter.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.
  18. Kmlwx
    Nothing new....we probably will really have no idea how it will play out locally until 10am tomorrow or later
  19. SchaumburgStormer
    Yup, not expecting much
  20. Brian D
    Winds switching more W. Temps rising over the last hr from upper 70's to upper 80's. 89/64 now. Low dew feels good.
  21. aldie 22
    NAM Hrrr and gfs pretty uninspiring for back here
  22. Eskimo Joe
    12z NAM twins look like complete garbage. Not even MRGL risk worthy. Ooof.
  23. Today
  24. CAPE
    CAPE changed their profile photo
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Better banding features especially in eastern quad on radar but center still dealing with serious dry air. Recon confirms with very light winds a good distance from center. Not far off from TS but not very well organized at all. NE shear is very evident and dry air intrusion will certainly limit this thing. Not sure the environment gets better even if it misses land and went south of Louisiana some models actually show shear increasing later on
  26. donsutherland1
    The timing is still very uncertain. Hopefully, there will be greater clarity during the 18z and 0z runs.
  27. olafminesaw
    It's true and also Raleigh's drought was probably the most anomalous in the state before recent rains. 1986 was the lowest rainfall year through this date for both GSO and RAH. But for RAH that total was 14.13, while GSO managed only 8.6" YTD in 1986. So while GSO is running ~3" behind RAH YTD this year, we are actually running ahead of the 1986 record by a wider margin (wetter than), when compared with RAH which would catch 1986 with one good dry spell
  28. Stormlover74
    Models all over with regards to timing. Some have heavy rain tomorrow morning, tomorrow night or Wednesday
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