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KEY MESSAGE 1... An Alberta Clipper will track through the Great Lakes and bring another round of snow to the region Friday morning into early Saturday. In general, forecast values across the lowlands average around 2.5 inches, with localized areas measuring as high as 4 inches. Peak times for snow accumulation still look to be between 10am and 5pm, which will likely impact the Friday evening commute. There is very little uncertainty about the snow type; it is expected to be light, fluffy snow, with snow-liquid ratios ranging from 18:1 to 21:1. Higher amounts are likely in the ridges with enhanced rate due to upsloping. 3 to 6 inches are currently expected with locally higher amounts possible. Blizzard conditions are also possible given the character of the snow and eventual wind gusts up to 45mph. In coordination with surrounding offices, a Winter Storm Watch was issued for the ridges of WV and PA. In the evening, an advancing cold front may result in another period of increased snow rates, and possibly snow squalls. Be prepared for rapidly crashing temperatures into the single digits, gusty winds, and low visibility if snow squalls develop.

I remember reading about the Jan thaw getting muted too and it ended up +10 over a 10 day stretch. But sure, the cold has won out in the extended more often than not for the first 2/3 of winter. But I don’t think many have been predicting toucans and stunned iguanas. It’s more just a relaxation of the pattern with more snow/ptype threats and more fair weather days above freezing given the latitude gain of the temp gradient.

2/7, 2/12, 2/15 Can we bat .667? I'd like to hit on at least one of the latter two, having the higher upside.

It has support now.

Fair point, lol

12z GFS says give it to NC/VA again as the HP suppresses it down. Neat to see all the different outcomes. Different model 12z runs show 2m temps warm with the exception of Euro and GFS. I also notice the 850mb level is warm on all 12z models, the 700mb level is cold on all 12z model runs.

Saturday Wednesday Vday

Nope, just keeping it real: what’s good for one is good for all.

So sensitive

Now snowing in town.

Yep we want a negative pna with blocking in place.

Kind of like how you guys let go the “we dont know type stuff?” Maybe when that stops?

For something that fell in such a cold DGZ it had some sneaky density to it for sure

there is no pessimism on this end.

1967 redux (Northern ORH county had 2 snow events that May including one on the Friday/Saturday of memorial day weekend)

Just happy that it looks like that western ridge is finally going to break down/back the f off into the Pacific and give us some chances. I'll take that over the sh*t we've been dealing with.

35.5/32 light rain with a bit of sleet.

Still alive on the 18z NAM for friday afternoon wintry dusting 3k is more northy unfortunately, and elevation dependent as expected

It’s gonna snow until Memorial Day.

But some variability here. Between the Canadian, American, and European models it’s either the northeast, mid Atlantic, or upper south that gets the goods. I’ll tell you who ain’t getting the goods though. I’m no expert but no signs of anything favorable for us. Eager to be shown otherwise!

There was also over 2” QPF in that. That is a shit ton to throw in a snow event. Piles were massive and unlike fluff, when you shoveled snow, it became a mountain of snow.

The ski resorts out West are hoping for that outcome with the record low snowpack. But that record ridge and warmth has been beating the long range guidance since November. So we get a few days of a transient trough before the ridge returns. Eventually the trough will gain some staying power as it’s tough to lock a ridge in for 4 months without at least some relaxation for a week or two.

I enjoyed this storm much more than the 2016 storm that melted 2 days later. I like winter, not just snow falling. This has been epic. I absolutely love this pack. I've hiked over 40 miles on it. Clouding up and 35. Hardly a drip and no damage to the pack.

Ok man. Time to let it go and move on to other talking points.