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  2. Have done some reading about this, and it seems that they like trees of heaven, which smell like shit and apparently make the lanternflies taste like shit. If an area doesn’t have too many of those trees, then the bugs are more readily predated upon. Sounds plausible to this non-entomologist.
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  4. Models consistently nail us later today. Watch for spin ups with warm front nearby
  5. It shows up here - https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/ Well, the discussion does
  6. Betting new climo will be ice storms. Lots of ice storms farther north than typical.
  7. The wind shear across the MDR is pretty nuts and probably isn't decreasing anytime soon. Would probably need to see some wave survive to around Cuba or Puerto Rico before it even has the chance of becoming organized.
  8. SPC quite late with their 9AM D1 outlook update, wondering if they've been waiting on some additional model data?
  9. It jumped south overnight , now jumping back north run by run . Looking at radar I bet we get a period of heavy rain into southern CT.
  10. I have resigned myself to this winter being an interesting vibration for sure. I don't care if it's 70 for Christmas... just please don't let us transition to that straight out of the only wintry period that really delivers of the entire season. No issues if it stays 65 the entire winter, just not the bait and switch. Watch, this year we're gonna get 30" on the 22nd and it'll vanish in two days...
  11. Hopefully that inevitable stretch in Sept doesn’t feature the same dewpoints. I think this most recent stretch of mid to upper 90s has felt much worse than our hottest timeframe around the 4th. It was over 100 then, but at least the humidity wasn’t as high.
  12. 5% TOR for extreme SE PA/S NJ/DE. Meso models this morning really liking this area for both strong storms and flash flooding. 06z 3K NAM and 12z HRRR are both nasty later on. NAM with a supercell threat while the HRRR is showing a huge QLCS for this evening. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2026082006/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2026082012/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_12.png
  13. Suns coming out in Charlestown so let’s see how this goes. HRRR been getting more robust each run.
  14. You haven't visited the Mid Atlantic lately, have you?
  15. The first 20 days of August have been the warmest on record globally on the ERA-5 dataset. Powered by fossil fuel-driven climate change and an ongoing strong El Niño, 2026 has now set 11 consecutive records. 2026 needs to average 16.578°C for the remainder of August to surpass the 2024 record. That appears very likely given the latest guidance.
  16. Today
  17. HRRR bumping north each run again. Maybe some.in CT get lucky
  18. wow that is a lot of rain
  19. Well here in Purcellville we may get a warning... and have it dropped as downslope of the Blue Ridge/Mount Weather (probably some Government experiment, but keep that a secret) splits it and then reforms exactly like you said!
  20. It will clear off at 12:52pm and be sunny for exactly one hour and 22 min. That will give enough time for one cell to form near Winchester to miss east coast npz and give a severe warning to leesburgtownville up to Frederick. Then a dc split will happen with one red box over laurel for broad rotation on radar
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