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@40/70 Benchmark Even a better page dedicated to the RONI and much easier to view the data https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

This morning was the warmest I've had in a while 16F when I let the dog out Sunday morning looks to be the coldest of the weekend, but nothing we haven't seen before

Rgem insists on only a quarter inch

Can you explain the difference between a SWFE set up versus Miller B? I know there might be some overlap, but is it a Midwest originating low redeveloping off the coast in Miller B verses south westerly originating LP that then may or may not redevelop off the coast in SWFE? Anything on the 500mb to look for difference-wise?

Max 19 Min 7 Snow .4

I know. I texted you the exact same thoughts a few days ago. You must have not seen it. It's unbelievable! Even in bad winters we get 10 inches alone from nickel and dime events. 2011/2012, 2012/2013 are a couple examples with plenty small events. I do believe we get 1 or 2 more moderate events but the lack of more frequent lighter snows will probably be the deciding factor in getting to average.

Yea, better chance in March, but it's probably decidedly RNA from here on out IMO.

Wow you never told us you moved!

Iconic slams the whole Arctic in here

NAM gives the area 3-4 inches but still 48 hours away.

Max- 19 Min- 5 Snow-0.7”

Flurries brightwaters 31

RGEM wants nothing to do with this. Shame it's not on board.

Thanks!

It's always nice to get a wintery surprise

Already at freezing mark here in Queens. Should blow right through mid 30s today. Always use model forecasts of temps with a grain of salt. During heat waves, they're often several degrees too warm and during cold snaps, they're often several degrees too cold. Our thaw continues. Looking into the future: 1. Model guidance is indicating around 1" of snow for most of Saturday morning. Certainly cold enough for it as well 2 Looks to be 2 separate threats for late next week (one around 14th, and one around 16th) Maybe it's possible both blend into one distinct threat for next weekend, or maybe two separate ones? After that, it looks like a trough gets pushed into the west, which is probably our best bet for warm temperatures this month.

I've done the Coney Island polar plunge a few times.

They did that a lot back then with the major storms. I mean, can anyone recall big CAA winds after a damaging LLJ on the front end?

Downplaying seems to work wonders.

Yeah it's kind of interesting that the overall dry/minor drought thing has persisted from the summer, fall, and right into winter even with the various large-scale pattern changes. Usually it tends to snap back at some point.....

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1 type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring.

Congrats on nam

Believe it or not….

Yes, still going to be frigid, just not as bad as it looked earlier in the week... Core is north and west, not directly over us.. It will feel worse with the wind and after the thaw Monday through today

Wet bulb temp running 4 degrees below forecast at GSO