All Activity

I didn't see it on the previous outlooks (maybe I missed it) but there's a 10% hatched for WI thru NE IL and NW IN. Pretty narrow corridor due to the expectation of the discrete cells transitioning to a linear complex, I'd imagine. Should be an interesting day.

I must have missed the talk here of the 1-3” rainfall potential this am.

A final note from me today: Saturday's coming convection may have some hailers as I've seen some guidance suggest iso severe further N than currently outlooked, up into e NYS. Going to be some problems for air travel into NYC next several days (beyond the Newark multi problems).

Looking good, y'all...

Does anyone know where to find historical Europe weather obs? I am in Warsaw right now, on the 29th floor of a building, and it was snowing outside for about 10 minutes. Unclear if it hit the ground-but trying to understand how anomalous this would be at this time of year.

International Falls has seen twice as many 90+ days in the month of May over the last 4 days than Dayton, Ohio has seen in the last 13 years! Just unreal. @Spartman

Yes there is an issue - i will delete. The list generated with errors. Thanks for the catch

High-end enhanced. Surprised they didn’t go moderate, but makes sense.

Good Thursday morning everyone, May 15. All graphics can be clicked for clarity. Added the drought monitor (ONLY LONG TERM NOW IN OUR AREA) and one week classification change (please refer to the legend), plus the flooding reports in central NJ yesterday and the unexpectedly large 48 hour rainfall ending this morning via CoCoRaHs. This 48 hour rainfall will be newly added to next weeks drought monitor assessment and is in my opinion good news for our coming summer (JJA). Sussex County reports (nw NJ) dropped off rapidly to the west fringe of NJ (my part of southern Wantage NJ two day 0.92)

To put that into perspective, Cleveland has only seen one May with 4 90+ days (1962); Detroit, 3 times: 1962 (6), 2018 (4), and 1895 (4); and Bristol/Johnson City, Tennessee, twice (1962 & 1941, 6 each). And for those who would blame the latter on elevation, Tri-Cities Airport in Tennessee is actually closer in elevation to International Falls than the other two cities. International Falls looking to shed its title as "icebox of the nation" in a BIG way!

Just in time for everyone's outdoor plans for Memorial day. The good thing, is even with below temps it will still be warm for outdoor activities, just not scorching hot, which is nice.

The differences between KNYC and Newark are wild in some recent years on those Memorial Day charts. In 2021 for example, Newark was 84 with a low of 66 and Central Park had a high of 70 with a low of 49? That's not possible. And in 2023 Newark was 88/70 and Central Park was 79/59? Something is off.

Incredible stuff. Record breaking 4th day at or above 90F yesterday at International Falls. That's the most ever recorded in the month of May, with 17 days remaining in the month.

Congrats Bristol RI with 3”

Looking at one of the coolest Memorial Day weekends coming up in the last several years. Surf temps near North Wildwood, NJ near 60 F. Hopefully by Father's Day weekend we experience warmer surf zone temps. Meanwhile a large area of High pressure, a heat dome, is building in the very deep South across the Gulf and will cause extreme heat in Texas. No signs of any excessive heat here for several weeks, or more.

.49" Duxbury and rising fast.

Enhanced risk expanded slightly south and further east to Detroit, 30% sig wind introduced over Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan. They're expecting mature supercell's ahead of the line so some areas could have a tornado threat and then damaging wind right behind it

Total event for me was 3.35".

Yeah, that day. The top of one of my maples got ripped off and clipped the corner of the house causing roof damage and taking out a window. I wasn’t home when it happened but will never forget driving through downed trees and branches and having to walk to get to my house only to find it damaged. Not fun. The cell that went through my area eventually had a confirmed tornado just miles to my east. That day did the opposite for me, I dislike severe weather now. Nor’easters were always the driving force behind my weather interests anyway.

Looks like I'll be heading northwest today and south tomorrow

That better than girls gone wild?

Why not

I wouldn’t be shocked if SPC goes moderate risk for the Michiana region. Storms may be more linear by the time they get here but an embedded, strong tornado or two seems like a good bet locally.

Seven years ago today, the derecho that blew through sheared the porch off the house at my old place. Still probably one of the scariest days of my life but the one that re-ignited my weather interests Back to today, 5.30" for the month and more rain incoming the next few days.

Weeds went wild yesterday.