All Activity

Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right!

I don't agree with you all that often, but this is very true. Ratio moving rapidly in the direction one would expect. Although I must note that the chart itself is also "rigged" in a few ways to produce an incomplete picture. I'm assuming, of course, it's accurate. Who knows about station selection, have to assume all stations meeting the criteria were selected. (1) Martz only posts the first time a record was set and ignores later ties. This, of course, produces a bias for both record highs and lows towards the early years - which we can plainly see. The dropoff in highs (and, to an extent, lows) would not be as dramatic otherwise. (2) The data is unadjusted. Most of the GHCN stations switched from afternoon/evening observation times (5/6 pm) to morning observation times (~7 am), which is the time in which the instruments would have been manually reset. While maybe not a huge factor, this favors occasional "double" counting of record highs up through the mid 20th century and occasional "double" counting of record lows thereafter. (3) Unclear what direction this bias goes. But it should be noted that a more complete picture would be rendered by indicating the percentage of total data available for each year. The criteria was for stations that reported at least 85% data for 100 years - but where is the missing data. If there is station dropoff towards the end, then that also contributes to the general "softening" of the records. Like I said, this information wasn't presented so I can't so for sure what effect, if any, this has. But I can say for certain that presenting that data would be helpful for presentation. Regardless of the rigging, the data is fully consistent with a warming climate - record highs are clearly outpacing record lows. The apparent loss of extremes in both directions from the earlier decades is largely (maybe not entirely, but significantly) affected by the convention to list only the first occurrence of a record high or low.

Believe me, its real

Like seriously...how often do you see that??

https://www.wral.com/weather/winter-weather-likely-upcoming-weekend-jan2425-2026/ They’re saying to choose from a trusted source. But I like my 25inch snow totals on the weather ap. I think a lot of time though they’re pretty realistic there. I do miss Fish’s stuff.

Should have hedged your bets and bought some fruit slushy syrup to make an snow cone with sleet and freezing rain. Agree though need to get closer to event to fully trust.

What day are you all thinking?

I feel like that was some heavy snow I had to shovel and not pixie dust. If I remember looking at qpf maps. It was just a qpf bomb.

something to watch. Takes so many pieces to come together for us to get a good snow here https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013779357618090201?s=46&t=5gcCLI7v5ivrQOOn6gky6g

Not too doom and gloom .I actually agree the N shift is real, Been analyzing the members and operations runs from 0z to 12z to 18z and there were definitely more members now bringing heavy snow to NOVA points north. However still lots showing hits here , just not as solid as earlier. Hopefully will correct back S.

I believe it was over 2”. It wasn’t a high ratio storm

Been thinking about jburns today. He would be loving this week so much. RIP

That piece of Montana energy has been there, but it doesn't get connected with the Baja energy on the good runs today. On 18z it did and three pieces phased. It could be the final look, but triple phasers are rare. That said, your area still got huge snow totals on the 18z from what I could tell. I did decently as well. If you'd told me a week ago that I'd be in like to get 6+ inches of snow with some freezing rain, I'd have jumped on it all day. But once you see 20 inches on a euro run and 15+ across all modeling the perspective changes. Its rare to get chances at truly historic snow events.

had the same here earlier.. not great but noticeable

On 1/18/2026, the EPO dropped way down to -3.81. That was the lowest daily EPO in January since way back on 1/26/1991, when it was -3.99. Before 1991, you had to go back to 1974 and 1963 to have an EPO<-3.81 in January. The combo of this extreme -EPO helping to produce extremely cold Arctic highs and a strong +PNA to steer them down in our direction with the aid of a strong -AO is why there is that 1050ish Arctic high with mega-cold coming down later this week that is a key factor resulting in this weekend’s big SE winter storm threat. https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Great post!!

Reshuffle...nah we can keep the deck just the way it is That sounds foreboding-- like that new data getting ingested and we suddenly get skunked at 12z or something, lol I know that has a lower liklihood, but I don't wonder if "huge jumps" like that are still on the table.

Actually, I don’t think they know what it’s gonna do. It’s changed every run, so until we’re 12 hours out from it, I’m not buying into anything. I’ve learned that if you don’t like the weather here wait five minutes it’ll change.. I’ve already bought two things of milk and a lot of vanilla flavoring and sugar for the tons of snow cream I was gonna make. We need to tell this system I’m already too bought into it. .

I find it hard to believe with the temperatures that have been shown that there will be a major ice storm (freezing rain) in the Richmond area… Down south & the VA Beach area… is a different story … Do I think it may mix for an extended period sure it could but I think it’s going to be mainly sleet (in the Ric area) .. This actually could be a good thing (if its not hours of mixing) it should limit the snow on power lines and trees…

Because climatology is a lot like Las Vegas…… They win a lot more than they lose but they don’t win every one of them. .

From a climatology/historical perspective, that's insane.

That’s the Ukie ensemble, but I love it!

That Boston stat is wild. No six inch snows in four years?!

No matter what happens, it's good to see the forums back alive again. This place means a lot to me and even though I disagree with folks from time to time, I enjoy riding this Rollercoaster with you all. The worst thing for me would be these forums not being here anymore due to lack of use. So my message for the newbies and some who have been gone and just checking back in is- stay a while. Keep contributing.

WB 0Z HRRR at 48 hours