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AI ftw

Lol... Right, until the next big one shows up But in all seriousness... I get your frustration. Just can't understand the model frenzy. Oh well

06z GFS yields nothing either. The entire run doesn’t show much promise. at this point it would be nice to just see some flakes in the area later this week

This hobby blows. At least stress free summer weather will be here before you know it. Can’t wait.

January doldrums……

6z GEFS comes back to life for Sunday/Monday. Still not much there from the GFS

Go back to sleep. You have 180 hours to rest. Lol By the way, Gefs and Geps are similar.

It ain’t much, but euro had something for the cape storm? Like dusting -1”?

That was fun while it lasted.

I think it bounces around as much as anything in mid and long range, but it’s pretty deadly inside D5

Also current temp and low of 14 degrees.

EPS really high on 2nd half of the forecast period. Top map is snowfall at 180hrs and bottom map 360hrs.

This is your moment

Models aren't digging the vort like yesterday so this isn't a long duration event anymore. Totals are cut way back. The one good thing I see is that we may see severe small flow events the next 10 days. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

why I dont trust models not even 1-2 days out they change way to much for the same model from 1 run to the next

I'm not going to lie. This winter has been so frustrating and continues to be. We can't seem to manage a single decent synoptic driven snow. I've been checked out since the little event the first week of November and that hasn't changed and doesn't look to. I guess the plus side is I've had more sleep over the winter than ever before. Just incredible how bad the short term trends have been for this mid-week event. Yet another token NW event on deck.

Now that the end of week threat is practically dead… it looks really boring again weather wise… le sigh

Outside of the mountains this would be a painful look for our cold snap if it verifies:

Whoof knew overnight runs were awful when both the NE and MA forums were absolutely dead

This shows some pretty bad forecasts. Late December is the first set of images and the latter is as we close in on mid month.

I’ve read that the MJO is in 6, so this being a snowstorm is not likely, right? But the next 2 are more favorable. Tired teacher here. I want all of them.

0z EPS at 360hr is continuing to show a favorable N. Hemisphere pattern for cold, and possibly snow the last few days of January. I like this +PNA in the N. Pacific (which is something we have not seen much of in the last 10 years) And -AO all the way up north.

Been a long while since we’ve had an organized southern stream low run move across the south and run into an established cold dome. Simple overrunning setups work well here. Much rather a bowl pattern with an active STJ and cold air available to the north than have to rely on perfectly timed phasing, perfect ULL passes and unicorn farts.

There are a lot of nothingburgers.