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From IND's Long Term: .Next week... The overall weather pattern begins to shift next week as the upper jet becomes more west-southwesterly aloft and the storm track lifts northward into Indiana. Closer to the surface, high pressure begins to lose its influence over the state as a developing area of low pressure in the Plains and associated frontal boundaries lift northward into Indiana. Low pressure is expected to ride along the warm front extending over the Ohio Valley and provide perhaps the best opportunity for more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. The focus for greatest convective coverage will again be over southern counties in closest proximity to the warm front and track of the surface low. By Wednesday, an upper low will be in place over the Upper Great Lakes while Indiana is in in the wake of the passing surface low to the east. While it is difficult to forecast subtle waves within the upper jet this far out, this pattern would support continued mostly cloudy conditions with showers as weak waves rotate around the upper low to the north. Keeping the forecast more pessimistic mid week based on the overall weather pattern. Confidence decreases mid to late next week and into the following weekend as some longer range models have been consistent in showing another cut off low pattern developing. Guidance usually struggles with patterns featuring weakly forced systems, so confidence remains low in the finer details this far out. For now, keeping a close eye on the potentially cool and wet pattern going into early June as any warm up back to normal may be fairly brief. Should the forecast pan out with highs remaining below 70 through at least Tuesday here at Indy, this would mark a consecutive string of 8 straight days of sub-70 degree weather extending back to this past Tuesday 5/20. The last time Indianapolis experienced this for such a long period of time this late in the Spring was from 5/25 to 6/2 in 1889. The search for a return to more persistent warmth likely is still 7-8 days out and possibly beyond with 80s likely to return by early in the week of June 2. Yep, another cutoff low in the middle of next week heading into the first week of June. So far, DAY and CMH have had 15 days with measurable rainfall for this month as of yesterday. It will add up a bit next week. The record for most days with measurable rainfall for DAY is 21 days in May 2003 while CMH's record is 22 days in May 2004. Could be creeping toward the record by the end of next week.

NYC's average monthly low for May is 44 degrees (1991-2020). NYC had their coldest temperature of the month yesterday 3+ weeks in at 47 degrees. The average lowest temperature from 5/20-5/31 is 51.4 (1991-2020)

Low of 56. Dew point dropped to 44 this morning.

Back in early Spring I planted a bunch of native wildflower seeds at the back part of the yard near the edge of the woods. Lots of growth there now and starting to see beginnings of some blooms. I was thinking of making most of my back yard clover + wildflowers. Tired of dealing with the grass that never survives the Summer and constant reseeding process. White clover naturally takes over in those areas anyway, so why not just plant the stuff. Low maintenance drought tolerant ground cover. Something like this from The Vermont Wildflower Farm, although this seed mix also has some grass mixed in- https://www.vermontwildflowerfarm.com/products/magic-carpet-mix?variant=46441269920051&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=209329693&gbraid=0AAAAAD-xHrEgHFgrwptzJzqv-zz5ffLaA&gclid=CjwKCAjw3MXBBhAzEiwA0vLXQQSxPeRduIIZfvkIVk0P13QBd_cZ8nhsqIvaqhVr8ceckp02xKXd2hoCHWIQAvD_BwE

Third straight day with a low of 49. Added .01” of rainfall to the ledger. Reckon I’ll try and mow and plant some potted flowers today. Onward.

Looks more like a quasi, CC-mutilated winter (now..), moves to a quasi, CC-mutilated spring next this week. Then we'll see if the deeper summer look in the 10+ Euro has any legs. But, I've seen that heat look in the D12 range now on some seven different model cycles, Euro and GFS, since a week ago yesterday in the guidance, and it's yet to actually move closer in... I'm starting to wonder if this is going to be one of those summers where we're always chasing a heat wave in the outer guidance, and finally catch up to it september 9 through the 17th type bs

Pretty pleasant day outside so far here at the coast IMO

It felt like March yesterday afternoon. I got cold mowing grass.

I have a wild turkey who has become a regular visitor, eating the bird seed that falls from the feeder onto the ground. Makes a mess of the mulch though. They also will eat flowers, so I have been chasing it away lately. It's hard enough dealing with the deer, but Irish Spring seems to do it for the most part.

Absolutely! It's WAY overdue.

Winds putting a damper on my weekend birdwatching for what feels like the 9th weekend in a row

Low of 47

New York City has had five consecutive days with lows of 49° or below after May 20th for the first time since 1992. The last time New York City had five consecutive such days was May 24-28, 1992.

Nice and sunny now, looking at satellite looks like thick clouds are spinning in . I’m ready for sun and summer

Wasn't there a good one in May of 1976?

Sorry Steve, I just lost my 15 year old a few weeks ago, miss that girl every day still.

After a relaxation, the models are showing another big trade wind burst in June, likely leading to some more cooling next month

Sunny for now. Just checked radar and want to cry.

You guys wanted it

The idea is that these baseline jumps in temperatures are permanent across the globe. But the door is always open for very high end volcanic activity which would shift us back temporarily to colder regimes of the past. Though after a number of years we would revert warmer again. This storm track shift to warmer and further north is still a work in progress after 7 seasons with the record low snowfall totals. I think it’s possible the there could be some shift in the way the Pacific is warming which could lead to benchmark snowstorm tracks returning from time to time. But I don’t think it’s very likely the record 2010-2018 with the 50 to 100 year concentration of KU Benchmark tracks will return absent major volcanism. Through the 1970s the world was still in a much colder climate. This allowed the CONUS to have the #1 coldest winter since 1895 in 1978-1979. The CONUS also experienced their 7th coldest winter in 1977-1978 and 12th coldest in 1976-1977. The Northeast recorded their #5 coldest winter in 1976-1977 and 11th coldest in 1977-1978. Our first baseline jump in temperatures across the world occurred in 1982-1983. Across the CONUS the coldest winters of this era were 1983-1984 at #18 and 1984-1985 at #19 coldest. For the Northeast the coldest winter of this era was 1993-1994 which ranked as #13 coldest since 1895. The next global baseline jump in temperatures occurred in 1997-1998 and was much larger than 1982-1983. So the coldest CONUS winter of this era was 2009-2010 which ranked at #22 coldest since 1895. The coldest Northeast winter of this era was 2014-2015 which ranked as #22 coldest. Another major baseline temperature jump happened in 2015-2016. So the coldest winter of this era was 2018-2019 at #84 coldest for the CONUS. The most recent even larger baseline jump in temperatures started in 2023-2024. Our coldest CONUS winter so far was 2024-2025 at #104 coldest. This past winter was also the 27 warmest on record for the CONUS even with the coldest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere focusing into the CONUS in January. But December was so warm for the CONUS at #4 warmest that is balanced out the winter average to much warmer.

46 for the low imby. Wind already starting to crank.

Steve and myself are ready for warm lol.

57 on the eastern shore. That’s chilly for the beach

Light drizzle/ .04" since midnight 47F, have to work outside again, co-worker morale will be down again, truck heat on again wtf

This muck is going nowhere fast . I was hoping we'd get lucky.