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As we get started on Monday, the Euro, Canadian, and GFS all have a storm in the same general window next weekend. As of now, it looks like the further N and W you are from the metros, the better you. This is also in line with WPCs current thinking.

WB 6Z GFS. Low dies over Tenn. Valley this run and starts a slow transfer to the coast.

Zzzzzzz

WB 6Z NBM para for weekend

Still plenty of time but this looks like its trending away from Winter Weather.

Interestingly, looked back at my Tempest for last January - 29.3. This Jan - 29.7. Two sub 30F January’s in a row in Toms River, last February finished up at 35f.

Mt Bachelor is starting to get pummeled again, they got 10 inches snow in last 24 hours

Ironic. In 1934 at -20, "Much discomfort, but actual distress seems rare..." Cut to 2026, +3, little discomfort, but distress is through the roof.

The other 0Z ops are also quiet. But here’s the 0Z GEFS:

You're right that climate change isn't linear (almost nothing is) and that there are other factors, but it really boils down to emission-caused warming. Saying otherwise is dodging the issue imo. And applying the non-linear logic just makes things worse for us as the climate is warming at an ever increasing rate! DC's snow climo used to be around 20 inches; it is now 13.8. I was reading an old (2018 or 19) CWG article the other day and it cites DC's climo as a bit over 15 inches, because that's what the average was for the 1981-2010 data period. That's a 1.5 inch decline (20+% of the total loss) from a mere 10 year shift! That's a shocking statistic that I never would have guessed before I started learning about this stuff. I'm no expert, but that's my two cents.

Except that now the Euro looks like the GEM, .

Please please don't say this (see my username)

Nice southern slider on models

It's not that simple. Like not at all, in any way. Yes, the climate is warming from human emissions, but that doesn't translate to "baroclinic boundary moves X miles north". And there's no way to even calculate a half-way semi reliable change in temperature because of various knock on effects related to clouds and patterns of heat distribution . It's not a linear equation like that.

I actually like the look of the GEM...I think it's too warm. Looks like EURO, just warmer.

GEM is Scooter's fear....hugger. Elevation event. It was OTS at 12z.

Very true! It was encouraging also here in Central, Va on Friday, we actually scored with a clipper. Had 3.5" in SW Chesterfield County in less than 4 hours! Can't remember last time a clipper did some damage.

This is getting surreal.

I agree with this. The past 10 years or so have been historically bad and not the sole fault of climate change. Frankly, if it was just climate change alone causing such a dramatic shift then I wouldn’t be in college right now because clearly our planet is mega fucked so id live up the life I had left. Thankfully, it’s not our baseline and instead just bad patterns and climate change together. We will get good winters again but they’re just harder to come by. As a last note I think this storm is a great read like you said but only if we get a “perfect track”. I mean if we get a primary in the Ohio valley or west it’s raining even if it was 1700.

It’s twue….oh it’s twue…

OMG. I’m actually not shocked that you would use that word. You’re a vile, vulgar hate filled human.

Next year will be extremely telling. If a decent central or even west-based El Nino develops, can you guys score with marginal homegrown cold, without crazy EPO blocking? Are we starting an exit out of the dreg -PDO minimum? Can we ever have regular bad pattern that isn't a shit the blinds?