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Thinking about ONI and RONI. Surface winds like trades are driven by surface temperature difference, so RONI probably more relevent. Precipitation and heat release to atmosphere from condensation are driven by moisture content. Warmer air holds more moisture so ONI is probably more relevent. Jet stream should have some ONI influence due to extra warming of tropical deep atmosphere from condensation. Will be interesting to see how the two factors play out.

I hope the euro is right Monday…would love a deep soaker. I’d sacrifice a Monday for that. Euro is 2-3” up here while the GFS is mid 70s Mon-Tue. GEFS tickled south too.

Thunderstorm activity in SNE has been pretty flaccid so far. I think it ramps up towards the end of the summer.

Warm spots like Newark are currently in 2nd place for most 90° days by the summer solstice. But the area will see fewer 90° days in late June with the pattern closer to seasonable. So Newark should fall further back closer to 4th or 5th place by June 30th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 21st Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-21 14 0 2 2026-06-21 13 3 3 2021-06-21 12 0 - 1987-06-21 12 0 4 1986-06-21 11 0 5 1988-06-21 10 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 30th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-30 18 0 2 2021-06-30 16 0 - 2010-06-30 16 0 3 1987-06-30 15 0 4 1986-06-30 14 0 5 2026-06-30 13 12 - 1965-06-30 13 0 - 1943-06-30 13 0 6 2024-06-30 12 0 - 1994-06-30 12 0 - 1993-06-30 12 0 - 1880-06-30 12 0

Meh even a marginal risk can do that. There was like zero lightning. As we thought.

We had 2 events cancelled. One was a staff golf tournament. That made sense due to rain likelihood and lightning. The other was our school fishing club was cancelled. I didn’t know we even had one. That also made sense.

After Monday fails (north) that's it for rain changes. I'm glad I didn't do a garden. Come on October!

.48” here .

It's only happened once before, when 3 robust el ninos happened in the 1982-92 period, which was a solid +PDO period. After the 2nd el nino event was a strong la nina. If we do get a very strong el nino, I'm almost expecting that after 2 in a short period, it's going to have to correct to the opposite direction, and a robust la nina will follow after it. And there was somewhat of a correction in 1983 and 1984, even before the robust 1988 event. There was none in 2024 or 2025. It's got to correct, unless we've reached a point of no return and the global climate is permanently altered.

Barely a quarter of an inch.

NWS from Sterling has slammed us in Waynesboro with a 70% likelihood of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms late night and Friday morning before noon. I'm still waiting for the first drop at 7:00 and the predictor radar of course keeps the rain over southeast Va..

.75 inch so far here. Thanks Arthur.

And, it failed. Next chance is Monday and I'm wondering - does that miss us north or south?

Thankfully the storm wasn't bad at all here. Picked up an inch and a half of rain. We did have a 50mph gust in a Tstorm, but other than that it was barely windy. I see many areas to my east got much more rain and wind. There were reports of a tornado touchdown though in that Tstorm. Hoping areas that REALLY needed some rain have cashed in.

Looks like Monday maybe?

What a radar to wake up to. Hallelujah

Weather World reSnspdtoom9a1h0l2t5tga956flm01hhu1484t9tg71flilt05i0u6u12hc · After some big temperature swings over the past 5 weeks, we see minimal big heat for Pennsylvania through mid-July. We also see regular opportunities for rainfall (every few days) during this period

Maybe some decent tstms SNE if the low passes far enough N.

What about the supercells and TOR warnings in MA? Not a complete fail.

Maybe there is hope for rain. But usually as the time gets closer the amounts go down. So we'll see what happens.

Went stein at 00z. Ticked north 6z.

I was up in the Adirondacks yesterday and got pummeled. Tornado watches, extremely heavy rain, and crazy wind for hours. That was fun...

Wasn’t GFS showing 1”+?

Monday could be an interesting setup near the low track which is all over the place. Gfs is likely tossed.