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GFS is fighting warmth like it does ever spring and early summer. This recent series' of runs technique is to pinch off all of 576 dm height low and act like that's sufficient to drive near gale flow into the M/A and destroy the sensible weather up and down the EC all next week. It's been showing all kinds of continuity issues with that scenario tho. 18z yesterday it almost none of that, and then does this bs overnight. We'll see. Both the Euro, CMC and the ensembles of all three, EPS,GEPS and GEFs are less with that ordeal. The only thing going for the GFS typical fuck it up for everyone by inventing physics math is that gee ... this spring has seemed to succeed at doing that anyway.

Jives with my early thoughts of a very warm December for the NE on par with 2006, 2015 and 2023...essentially a super/east-based composite.

that would be a fascinating look on the 00z operational Euro if it were not 340 hours out ... quasi Bahama Blue pattern with a TC rollin' up inside the conveyor.

Rare 30° June daily temperature range on Long Island with how dry it has been was the 4 largest on record for Long Island during June. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=FRG&v=largest&month=jun&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Euro is the most “robust” for showers on Sunday and it’s like 0.25” on average? Can keeps getting kicked on anything besides dry NW flow. So no major heat at least?

Do you really like cold and snow? Sometimes I feel like your screenname is a sadistic manifestation of deep-seeded self-loathing.

Low of 49 overnight marks the warmest morning low of the year at my place. A very warm and dry day on tap. Should reach low 80's.

Dewy

Much of central (and western) North Carolina got down into the 40s this morning.

44 this morning.

52 when I left the house. Oh what’s that, you’d like another perfect weather day? Your wish is my command.

41 degrees this morning. Gone fishing

RDU has at least tied the record low for today (49)

41 degrees this morning.

Looks like some models are hinting at finally some warmth and dews possibly beyond mid month, which would start to make sense climatologically.

Temp down to a beautiful 43 degrees currently.

We got smacked again tonight by a complex of storms that dumped another inch of rain on Buda ! Now we are up to 22 inches on the year. Normal is 30 inches for the entire year. We are just stackin 'em, rackin' em and packin' em in every time we turn around! The line starts at the Mississippi and everyone better take a number! With another disturbance forming in the Gulf of Mexico, and a Brobdingnagian El Nino intensifying, I think this summer could end up being like 2021, 2014 and 2015 and 2007. This is becoming surrealistic. Usually places like Dallas, TX and WinStar Casino in Oklahoma are at 6 inches above us here in Buda. This year it is inverted. Buda is 6-7 inches ahead of Dale City. It's absolutely unheard of! I want that Super Nino SO BAD! I want feet and feet of rain all year!

I'm really looking forward to 8 weeks of posts arguing if it will be 85F or 88F. It's summertime, let's enjoy it!

Great, nice way to kick off the summer season. No prolonged big heat, but enough short burst big warmth to get the vibe rollin'.

Just a perfect early summer day. Days like this right through June would be alright with me

Lower anomalies in 3/1+2 than 3.4/4. The bigger/smaller the differential, the stronger/weaker the Modoki.

^Nice cold pool SE of New Foundland developing. Warming in the Davis Strait too and south of Greenland. There is SSTA correlation there May-Sept with following Winter NAO, that's pretty high. The current SSTA setup would favor more -NAO conditions in the Winter. Let's see if it holds going forward.

It was beautiful flying out of BTV this afternoon.