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Betting line is open for the strongest mesonet/asos wind gust with the frontal passage this evening. I'm going with 45mph at Keedysville.

70 and. Breezy.

It won’t reach the bay because the mountains are going to be an anti rain force field.

Hum much more aggressive that most models which are trending poorly due to bad timing

74 here now, definitely t-shirt weather

very warm i even saw a few people wearing t-shirts..

Posted purely for entertainment value. We’ll see if that trough is still there a week from now.

Trash night, so I’m expecting a good gust or two when the front rolls through. 72F

That was hard to watch last year. Very hard . .

The gulf had more snow than you lol.

64 for the low here in Lizella. Got a drenching 0.15" from the little front that has now finished passing through. Was nice to see the clouds spittle a little down our domain, though. It's been a while and I could see the squirrels looking at each other in my acorn-dappled yard, their eyes blinking in the tiny drops, and go,"What's that stuff?"

No I've just seen several posters in and around the forum say that this winter is looking bleak because of the ENSO, the record water temperature of the coast of China, and global warming.

68 here

The QBO differences you point out are real. I am not sure why he grouped things as he did.

Once again the models 3 days out were way overdone. Maybe we'll get lucky and get a half inch

Angry bee season. They don't mess around in September and October.

Had a good view of it from the east side this morning. It was impressive.

I do think the mountains fair well this season. It could be hell in between cold shots but the pattern likely favors a lot of nw flow action with brief cool downs. The lakes are extremely warm compared to normal which will delay if not prevent them from icing over.

I'm not expecting much here tonight or tomorrow. The ingredients just aren't there. Set expectations low and once in a while be pleasantly surprised.

These warm days really over perform. Actually balmy out

Only .01 from the first batch. Probably not going to be a drought buster here.

I think the huge difference is in 1+2. Last year, we were still in el nino there, which is why I'll never consider it a traditional la nina. This year, we at least have neutral to weak la nina conditions there, which correspond to the rest of the basin. Also, this -PDO is a continuation of the one that started in 2019-20, and went through the 2020-23 la nina. This is more like a 7th year -PDO, than a 2nd year -PDO (that was early in the 2020-23 la nina).

Man today is beautiful

F******.

Joe D’Aleo posted this yesterday: The northwest and northeast Pacific had warm water mid September, a cold signal for the US in the colder months if it persisted. *The latest warmth relating to the latest deep sea volcanism is moving east through the north Pacific. The QBO mode (east or west) modulates the favored trough ridge. This is an east QBO, favoring more cold further east in the USA. The La Nina is weak but supported by cold PDO. You can see that the east QBO La Ninas are colder than the west. Compositing the average year matching the east QBO, weak La Nina cold PDO and warm AMO with declining to weak solar matches JB's/WB's winter outlook. West QBO, strong La Ninas a very different tendency. —————— *Aside regarding what I bolded/asterisked, D’Aleo is attributing the W Pac warming to an increase in deep sea volcano activity there, which is a theory originating from Dr. Arthur Viterito, someone who doesn’t believe in AGW as the main reason for GW. I’m not agreeing with it, largely based on many@donsutherland1posts in our CC forum, but am posting it only because it is part of D’Aleo’s quote. ————— Any comments regarding D’Aleo’s support of JB’s winter outlook being like the colder top map and much colder than the mild bottom map? I see some problems with the QBOs for the winters he included for the 2nd map per this 30 mb table that I always use: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data -1973-4 DJFM QBO was a slowly dropping neutral rather than W -1949-50 DJFM was E rather than W -1988-9 DJFM was neutral rather than W -2007-8 DJFM was a rapidly diminishing E rather than W