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We're going to see token flurries as this system pulls away and we wave goodbye. Temps shot up to 38 with DPs to match.

There’s a chance. But it really has to be timed right.

We can't get one model run to be correct when it comes to snow for our area, I'm talking about Southern New England. But we get a map showing a warm Christmas Eve.... Now for some reason I think that's going to be right LOL In all honesty, light snow would be fine for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, but I don't want a storm. My sis has a very big Christmas Eve shindig every year and it's a great time. But damn it, let's get some snow in here!!!

Yeah but that was more from massive NAO blocking.

Squalls Christmas morning? White Christmas?

The snow hits behind the front so what is happening ahead of it is not as important. Most areas probably will start as some rain before changing over. The previous event was WAA this one is more anafrontal with cold air feeding in (Cold Air Advection).

Pop open the Champagnie! Euro has mood flakes for next weekend!

That may work in your favor about a week from now…

Skynet with a robust little snowstorm early next week.

Windows open baby.

It's crazy, it's happening all over again. Everything that shows some kind of possibility of a storm either fizzles out or gets pushed out. So wasn't it 2010 where New York City South got some great storms and we missed out on most of the snow?

Rain for the past hour or two has finally now begun its transition to snow here in Blacksburg. Once it goes to snow, it'll come down fast.

Definitely not. It's going to get squashed south by the driving cold. Pretty disgusting lol

Just wait a run or two. We have no idea whats happening 5 plus days from now. Every run is a different roll of the dice. Just look for signals. I still say most Decembers where I grew up (Granby) were nearly snowless until at least Christmas, aside from a dusting here or there. I find it unusual to have 3 inches OTG here right now

6z Euro has it, but a bit weaker.

What a way to run midnight going into Christmas eve.

The 6z GFS has returned to a much colder look. The 0z Euro is definitely warmer after mid-month. Its ensemble is not as much. Both the 0z GEPS and 0z GEFS are not warm. I think the warm-up looks to be set just after mid month. But there is this on the LR GFS, and take with a huge grain of salt...a major league anafront. This would be a nightmare or travel. You don't have to guess what the weather looks like under that. Lots of uncertainty after the 20th, so we'll see.

The Dolphin Storm. Or maybe Platypus.

The only time we really had a colder storm track was in 2017-18 and January 2022. Other than that, the classic storm track with a sharp cutoff south and east has been a recurrent theme since 2016-17 (that was even the case in many of the 2021 storms). That appears to continue this year. This doesn't bode well for snow lovers in coastal areas, like Atlantic City.

gonna get pretty grody here after the mid week rainer/brief warmup hopefully we can get some of the lake week/weekend dusters to trend up with time

@usedtobecould score a good one here.

Something could pop near the 15th I suppose. 00z gfs has a snowstorm. Euro has a clipper on the 14th. No real concrete signal.

36 and rain. Shocker. Picked up .11 quickly. Would have been a nice inch of snow. Alas.

As long as you have a standing wave there (phase 4-6), you aren’t going to see a classic canonical phase 8 response

Yeah, dewpoint at 36 is not ideal. With the heavier precip expected to stay to the north, I would be a little surprised if we got even a dusting at this point (still should get some light snow this afternoon to set the mood at least)