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Meh... HRRR looks a bit more paltry 1-2" max (15z)

I mean honestly the CMC didn’t change much if at all from 0z

Looks like we get to do it all over again toward the end of January. Very similar setup at 500 late month.

Yeah, I concur with the mean sentiment that these trends aren't ideal. I'm north of 40 but by 15 minutes only. My gut says prepare for near equal amounts of snow and sleet. No 'top 10' historic snowstorm for BNA but maybe 'top 10' for total frozen QPF. Still a monster storm. Just not with the breakdown we were initially hoping for.

Delete this and someone with some cred start a new one with a synopsis. Please and thanks.

Yea I was gonna say this might be the one time where even the kuchera maps may be under totals with ratios.

Euro will be telling here soon

How many times have we heard this rant before. It's like a broken record every damn year/storm. " I'm Italian accordion player who likes weather and people don't like me when I post about snows." Wah. every damn time. Come on at least be original! Wahh.

With these temps currently modeled I think so.

Nobody is discrediting it, but i won't be concerned that this is the final outcome until the Euro and Ukie start showing it. Regardless it's still a great storm, just not the 20" some people thought we were getting.

If ukie and euro follow suit its a legit concern

I think I gave a pretty accurate description without seeing the final maps. M/D line around 5-6”

WB 12Z GDPS

And it would still be 8 to 12 followed by sleet in a fail scenario. .

I was sweating it for a bit. I think we'll know what's what after 0z tonight. Or have a better idea. This driving a primary amp'd thing to WV just jumped onto the scene. I think we'll end up between the GFS and CMC

The Canadian is NOT a good model and I wouldn’t be concerned with it at all unless it started moving back towards a more suppressed look. It’s over amplifying the trough and not handeling the airmass to the North well.

I’m looking for a big boy. Have had a few 6” events last few years. Have had none over 10”. So ya let’s have gfs or 6z euro be right.

You. Can’t. Plow. The Driveway. And I’m going into 17 Paragraphs as of why. Focus on the storm. Or Focus on How Much I’ve been F’d by timing across the past 10 years with storms.

Just bang one out rip a series of chords.

If we end up getting into the thick of things, that’s going to be a cold snowstorm for us in lower Michigan. Temps in the lower teens.

But that’s the warmest of the guidance and still brings double digit snows. Sometimes that solution would be the “one in our camp” knowing that we are going to lose it.

togglin between majors, CMC trough axis notably more neutral tilt, and others more pos/progressive.

Euro at 6z trended back a bit south another similar tick and a little slower and it would look more like the GFS. .

Just saw this. Yeah, because the one time you jumped the gun happen to work out. You weren't right at the time you made the post. But I'm not mad at you, I was 12 when I thought I knew everything too.

Toss the CMC at your own risk. It might be struggling synoptically but it’s not that wild of a solution and it performs well evaluating CAD.