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"Looking at Tuesday through the end of the week there remains a good deal of uncertainty with the mid-level pattern. Model guidance is not handling the evolution of the departing weekend system. As the cut-off low becomes more of an open trough in eastern Canada, isn`t able to easily move eastward because of the mid-level ridge across the North Atlantic. To the west of southern New England an amplifying mid-level ridge spills northeastward. Does it shift the trough out to sea or does it pinch off the trough into another closed low. If we can shift it out to sea likely a rather nice forecast with dry weather and warming temperatures. The other scenario, it becomes a closed low/cut-off and is stuck east of New England and may result in cooler temperatures and spotty shower activity. As there is a good deal of uncertainty, leaned heavily on the NBM. Which is leaning toward the first outcome, dry conditions and summer warmth. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and nighttime lows in the 50s." You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk?"

Yep, getting hit currently. Tropical downpour, extremely heavy rain.

It's been pouring early this morning here in the lowlands. Getting primed for the flooding tonight.

Also, zones now say sunny and hot with highs around 90 for next Wednesday and Thursday

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 .A wavy slow moving frontal system will meander about the area on Friday evening into the night. Anomalous moisture coupled with high rainfall rates should increase the risk of flash flooding over portions of this watch area. DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ036>040-050-051- 053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527-301530- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0008.250530T2300Z-250531T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys, and Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As a slow-moving frontal system tracks across the area, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. While initially posing a severe weather threat, a shift to a slow moving complex of moderate to heavy rain unfolds into the evening and night. Storm totals could reach 2 to 3 inches, locally nearing 4 inches in spots. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information.

It does now for most Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 .A wavy slow moving frontal system will meander about the area on Friday evening into the night. Anomalous moisture coupled with high rainfall rates should increase the risk of flash flooding over portions of this watch area. MDZ003-VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-301530- /O.EXA.KLWX.FA.A.0008.250530T2300Z-250531T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Washington-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren- Clarke-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, including the following area, Washington, Virginia, including the following areas, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Clarke, Eastern Highland, Frederick VA, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Warren and Western Highland, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As a slow-moving frontal system tracks across the area, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. While initially posing a severe weather threat, a shift to a slow moving complex of moderate to heavy rain unfolds into the evening and night. Storm totals could reach 2 to 3 inches, locally nearing 4 inches in spots. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information.

15/7/4

So my week total is 2.27 with a monthly total of 9.47. With the potential of the rains tomorrow night will most likely go over 10” for the month.

Yeah, forecast soundings along the warm front certainly support at least transient supercell structures. The question is where the warm front will reside, as there isn't good model agreement. If there is a weak consensus, it's for the warm front to set up just south of DC. Saturday could be a hail threat throughout the area, as very cold temperatures aloft will be in place, and the secondary front looks to move through at a favorable time of day.

Maybe, but in fairness people evacuate (or not) based on complex factors and circumstances.

As of May 28th, OHC for the area of the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean (20W-60W) is down to near the 2013-24 average. That’s still quite warm, but it’s not nearly as warm as 2024 and is even a bit cooler than 2023. I’ll be interested to see where it is in a couple of weeks:

Every time it’s halfway decent out, our course seems packed. You can never make up full for bad days but it’s been good to be busy when you can.

In my house, any husband who didn't call yesterday like he promised would be sent packing. I don't mess around with not having air conditioning.

00z NAM Nest looks interesting... granted the storms weaken by the time they get up here... but those look nasty in the SW parts of the LWX CWA

I leav for a week in PEI next Friday. Probably not going to get to install until I get back.

I can’t stop looking at it, but this glacial landslide is nuts. The fact everyone willingly evacuated swiftly days prior is some strong trust in science.

Okay, that was an impressive rain. 2.82 inches in about 90 minutes. Started to rush so hard it was overtopping the big yard drain I put in last fall so I pulled the grate and created a 3.5 square foot hole to a 12 inch culvert. That did it. . Cool whirlpool effect that my daughter enjoyed. .

WB 0Z 3K NAM continues to shift NW....

Looks like there could be enough surface wildfire smoke for some visibility impacts/smell on Saturday. Either way, should be a rather hazy/milky sky.

I think the problem with Vinegar is that its mostly a surface kill. It will most likely go brown pretty quick, but I don't think it gets to the roots for a total kill, so it will just come back. Not just poison ivy, but any thing you are trying to get rid of. I am all ears too for a natural solution that actually works and kills down to the roots.

.98 in Marysville from the system yesterday.

WB 0Z HRRR...most of the rain falls later afternoon/overnight Friday.

Interesting that it doesn't include the highlands. I'm over 9 inches for the month and streams are still quite swollen. Must think our QPF won't amount to a whole lot (altho @MillvilleWx and his crew still include us in the slight risk for excessive rainfall).

Lock it in!