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1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter

I'll get you something today.

Min 32.9° 2023, 2012, and 2010 were pretty warm early off the top of my head.

If we are going to go high end, I just assume the RONI not lag the ONI......I would prefer to take my chances with both in sync and try to pop a huge GOA low. I understand the risks with east-based and such, but keep in mind that I'm conceding a mild winter and am just looking for a window to get a good storm. My largest fear is some El nino/cool ENSO bastard-child, along the lines of 2023 that won't pop a se trough.

RDU picked up 0.09” on Sunday last week but that was the only measurable rain this month. If models hold and no additional rain is recorded this would move April 2026 into the second driest month ever recorded, behind 0.06” from October 2000.

A report from Campbell Hall from Mar 1-3, 2018 would be helpful. I feel like im walking in the dark in some areas with such an extreme snowfall gradient

Definitively have not seen a week stretch like this in mid April any time I can recall. Awesome.

Hopefully everyone takes advantage of the nice weather this weekend and installs.

70’s and 80’s most of next week

Open up the pools.

I usually check the GFS full run every morning and don't think I've ever seen a completely dry run. Insane. Euro is nearly completely dry too I have to believe by May we will be starting to see a pattern change

Eric Webb's list has 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 listed as super el ninos. Those are the only years when both the ONI and RONI were above +2C.

The SOI has crashed to strong negative. -33 today. The 30 day average is now negative

0z GFS is legit zero rain for the entire forum through the entire run

NCEI uses a proven scientific procedure to find inconsistencies between stations in the raw data. All the adjustments come directly from the raw data. There is no human intervention during the adjustment process. As an example, easy to see the impact of the two Coatesville moves in 1946 and 1948. Easy for most people that is. These charts are all posted upthread. 1945 site 1948 and later site

Same.. I was constantly outside when I was a kid and never got one.. now it seems everytime I hike and go in the woods I get them.

Actually, the last plowed snows were back on 3/18 and it's been above freezing almost every day since. I'm surprised and unhappy how stubborn the piles at work have been. And they were mostly just from the winter 2.0 that we got between 3/13-18. The ground being very frozen helped that. Open water on our lake in Harrison just happened maybe a week ago - that has boosted the mood after looking at solid ice for months. My golf buddy near Mackinaw had 40" of snow from those back-to-back storms. Last weekend his place was still snow covered while I played an early first round in Clare. He's tired of winter too.

Another big swing in temps coming up....I'll take rain and 50s any day. 39F at 1:30am...thinking 35-ish will be the low.

Impressive! We haven’t had piles since some time in February down here.

Add to those using a peak of 2+ RONI for 1950+: 1888-9, 1957-8, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1991-2

What a sad existence

Grew up in a very wooded neighborhood with a mountain very nearby with thousands of acres of forest…always was in the woods, and high grass, never had a tick ever on me, or my sister, or my friends. I guess we were just dam lucky.

10M+ households ain't terrible

When you look at those piles in winter it always feels like it’ll take forever for them to melt but they do go fast once you get to this time of year. I bet even the ones in Grayling will be gone next week.