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  1. Past hour
  2. high risk
    Yeah, instability looks good at the end of the week. Thursday has enough deep layer shear to perhaps make it an interesting day for many. The flow Friday looks weak which would support very isolated severe. I'm *very* intrigued by multiple ensemble systems showing potential for deep trough to our west next week.
  3. RedSky
    Detailed Forecast This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 54. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
  4. Damage In Tolland
    Stein https://x.com/nwsnerfc/status/2064022127834026337?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg
  5. Wxdavis5784
    Says the guy mainlining digital blue...
  6. Chrisrotary12
    Roadtrip to Binghamton?
  7. TriPol
    What's this talk about NYC hitting over 100 degrees by Friday??
  8. olafminesaw
    https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=97
  9. ineedsnow
    Head to eastern Iowa.. you have plenty of time
  10. weatherwiz
    Could be here. Probably be evening though but can’t rule out afternoon stuff, especially west
  11. suzook
    If we get the rain that is predicted over the next 10 days, the ATL area in general should be almost out of the drought. I sure hope everyone to our East and north East of us can cash in on some of this tropical moisture.
  12. Torch Tiger
    Maybe WNE for Thursday, otherwise meh.
  13. kgottwald
    Maritime influence
  14. Today
  15. Herb@MAWS
    Overcast with noon sprinkles in Columbia, 71°.
  16. Brian D
    Halloween looks good for some, but late Oct looking unsettled.
  17. GaWx
    Do you have this map for other states in the SE? TIA
  18. Brian D
    Columbus Day looks decent with inclement wx.
  19. Brian D
    Wife Appreciation Day just before the Fall Equinox looks unsettled with some energy moving through the sub. Ok husbands, you know what to do today (I hope).
  20. ineedsnow
    Reggie might be fun though
  21. ineedsnow
    Midwest im guessing.. nothing seems interesting here
  22. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris -Long range model winter forecasts have, indeed, tended to be too cold on average based on my recollection although the Euro has missed on both sides. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if 25-6 also comes in warmer than today’s forecast, but that remains to be seen. -But keep in mind that you essentially are showing a super Nino sample size of just one (2015-6 done in August) since 2023-4 wasn’t a true super (RONI peaked at only +1.49). ONI had ~0.5C excess due to very warm surrounding tropical waters from GW inflating the ONI. -Also, other super Ninos had a fairly similar temp. pattern to what the NMME shows overall.
  23. mitchnick
    Nobody is forcing anyone to consider any model. But if someone posts a model's SSTA forecast, what's so wrong or unusual about posting it's resulting weather forecast. It's done all the time.
  24. mitchnick
    The weather is what counts, and I'm not seeing anything different than previous extremes being forecasted by the same models forecasting your "global climate disruption." In fact, there's yet to be an agreement on the resulting weather.
  25. olafminesaw
  26. forkyfork
    we're facing the biggest global climate disruption of our lives
  27. LakePaste25
    Why would I even look at what models are showing next winter with more than a grain of salt when it’s only June? I am focused on how this is developing and summer analogs. I will check on that in October.
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