All Activity

Yeah recon shows no evidence of weakening. Probably the opposite at this hour. I mean, expect another 2-4mb drop on the next pass. The ERC will happen eventually, but it’s not right now.

Your assumption on ERC is wrong, point of my remark. The asymmetry is from friction and the trough. There’s also deep convection that fired in the east quadrant. Melissa is showing no signs of weakening. I mean, we literally have pressure falling and winds increasing on each recon pass right now.

The trough is also moving into influence which can begin to affect symmetry and convection on the periphery of the TC, including the outflow channela. Otherwise, Melissa's core is about as textbook as it gets for a powerful Atlantic Caribbean hurricane. Current appearance kind of reminds me of Matthew. I think it's more the latter, yeah you can see part of the outflow racing off to the northeast. As the whole storm turns it'll reorient, but if the coastal interaction happens before it can wrap the convection around more, I don't see how it isn't currently at around its peak strength, which is impressive enough.

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the N (358°) from the flight level center at 7:05:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SAWTOOTH APPEARANCE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG NORTHERN EYEWALL

It's already at 160mph. It's some ask for it to rapidly intensity from there! Esp when it is looking less symmetrical.

The trough is also moving into influence which can begin to affect symmetry and convection on the periphery of the TC, including the outflow channels. Otherwise, Melissa's core is about as textbook as it gets for a powerful Atlantic Caribbean hurricane. Current appearance kind of reminds me of Matthew.

Also, asymmetry can happen in Category 5’s when they start to feel friction with the coast.

No, recon hunter data confirms no ERC is ongoing or imminent. What is happening to cause the asymmetry is deep convection firing. Melissa is undergoing another RI process. We just happen to have recon hunters inside the storm this time.

First appearance of any asymmetry in a while on ir. Deeper convection away from eyewall in ne quadrant. Imagining this is an ewr beginning? Hopefully it can't finish before becoming a slightly larger windfield version of the same beast we just saw.

140kts in NE quad

918mb in southwest/western quadrant. We have 923mb in S/SE quad and 918mb in W/SW quad. Very impressive readings in the weakest quads of an Atlantic hurricane.

918.9mb extrap

Recon Hunters are currently inside Melissa. Those previous readings were measured in the south quadrant. In Atlantic hurricanes, the south quad typically features weaker winds and higher pressure. The higher winds and lowest pressure (peak intensity) reside in the northeast quadrant. So process that for a minute. The weaker quadrant of the hurricane measured at 923mb with 150mph winds. What do you think they will find in the northeast quadrant?

NWS still has Mesissa at 150 MPH 1 AM Eastern time. But with a 926 mb pressure indicating cat 5.

I still stand with 910-920mb and 170-180mph winds for my bet on the northeast quadrant reading. Any final bets or adjustments to previous bets?

I think very few of us in here actually look at TWC for tropical weather insight. Melissa is likely in the 170-180mph range right now. Just need the northeast quadrant eyewall measured to confirm.

TWC has it hitting Jamaica with 160 MPH winds.

Historic and likely one for the record books. Top-5 or Top-10 reading inbound.

This is probably going to be a really impressive SW to NE pass.

Wilma is the GOAT. At least we never got to witness Wilma’s peak on landfall.

Understand Dvorak is an estimate and it should be used as a tool. Typically when you see those sub 900 estimates on Dvorak, add 20 to get an accurate estimate. In the case of Melissa, Dvorak was pretty much spot-on if you added 20 to the pressure estimates.

Wilma is one of one.

Nothing to say, really. Wilma had recon support for its peak.

What about Wilma? Hurricane Wilma - Wikipedia

Still a cat 4 with 150 MPH winds but cat 5 pressure at 926 MB.