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Yeah probably not us and more north east but that new diving feature still has a ways to go in terms of resolution, if it sticks around. Definitely could up the ante if it interacts positively.

I did have the two towns transposed in my head. 29 in E.W. and 31 in Simsbury.. well, West Simsbury really

Lies. It's not "constant" as the 5-year old image in the post claims, the frequency and intensity has been increasing, and the rate of change is accelerating. hot take I imagine if you aren't being personally affected, it's easier to internally justify "nothing to see here" you clearly have a political agenda, and because of that, your postings on this topic cannot be trusted

Latest CFS AAM forecast: pretty close to prior one suggesting rise to modestly + in early Feb:

Someone would get hit pretty decent if it the Euro ran a little longer.

I like the trend of a stronger, sharper ridge out west. This gets said all the time but it’s real here: there is a ton of energy flying around late next week. We need to continue the trend of a sharper trough, more dig for a phase for storm 1. Storm 2 is tough to talk about bc it seems so reliant on what happens with storm 1. I’ll take the players on the board right now. EURO and GFS both have big dog potential if everything falls right and honestly we haven’t seen that in years. Late bloomer seems most likely path to victory with storm 1 but if that trough goes negative tilt just a little earlier and that low gets tucked this storm could really go to town. Keep building heights out west and dig the trough a little deeper and I think you’ll keep seeing some fantasy runs pop up

Looking over that 6z run of euro that northern piece of energy diving in and phasing would be amazing if times up right. Hope trend continues on 12z and it dives in to meet the southern piece of energy and phases and turns the corner.

When someone offers you 10,000 to 1 odds on ANYTHING, you take it.

GFS' recent runs hinting at that ... My only point before is that there's wave interference that is negative. That trough totality, albeit containing some potent embedded S/W at beta scales, is in fact positively tilted. The QUE vortex up there is in bad spot climo and physics-wise. These aren't really disputable. But he brought up a good point about looping and seeing the history, and the wind barbs are turning more S along and off-shore, so that's indicative of slowing - or having the ability to do so - the progressive nature overall. The WI dive probably catches, and then the phase ends up potency has enough - your "hook and latter" low fits that. But ... shit this can all change of course. it's fun to jockey the model runs LOL

Good point. To be sure I’m thinking most commonly 43-45 readings, for the region. a solid +10 today Dews will also be rising all day so it will compound the real feel. Legit warmth on this merit as well… Gotta get outside…

yeah, no question there. you know there's a chance we could mix some. the NAM's grid has mid BL winds over 20 kts from the SW at 18z. might just get it done

Oh I like that graph.

Yeah I’m not greedy. Just something other than 1-3” of fluff. Feb 16 did that here. Was paste for awhile and finally dropped below 30 second half. Even had some tree damage in that. 6z gfs was similar to what you said. Mixed here going to snow. Temp drops on NE winds like the days of yore.

No doubt, bare ground is in store for SNE. Different story for CNE and NNE as they have more snow and it will remain both cooler and snowier. As one would expect. 33 already in PVD vs. 27 at Pit2. Off to rake more leaves.

That is a horrific map. Not sure what they were looking. Usually the NESIS maps are good for looking at the general idea of the snow distribution despite being too conservative, but this map is completely wrong and way too aggressive with the snow in SNE and NJ/NYC

@michsnowfreak

Was colder then the county this morning here. 782 ASUS41 KGYX 091110 RWRGYX WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 600 AM EST FRI JAN 09 2026 * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. MEZ002-005-006-010-012-015-018-020-021-024-026-027-029-091200- MAINE CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PORTLAND CLEAR 20 19 96 CALM 30.33S SANFORD* CLEAR 14 11 87 CALM 30.31F BAR HARBOR CLEAR 23 21 92 CALM 30.36R WISCASSET CLEAR 19 15 84 CALM 30.34F ROCKLAND* CLEAR 20 19 96 CALM N/A FRYEBURG CLOUDY 11 7 84 CALM 30.30F LEWISTONAUBURN CLEAR 14 12 92 CALM 30.32S AUGUSTA CLEAR 22 19 89 SE3 30.31F WATERVILLE* CLEAR 18 16 93 CALM 30.29F FOG BANGOR CLEAR 17 16 95 CALM 30.34R GREENVILLE N/A 26 25 96 SE5 30.21R MILLINOCKET CLOUDY 30 25 81 CALM 30.30S HOULTON CLOUDY 29 25 85 CALM 30.26F PRESQUE ISLE CLOUDY 29 26 89 S6 30.26F FRENCHVILLE CLOUDY 27 24 89 S7 30.20S CARIBOU CLOUDY 28 25 88 SW5 30.24S $$

With the systems in a medium to long range me it’s not about what it looks like. In a particular moment in time it’s more about the way things are trending. It seems like it’s trending in a gooddirection, but of course that may not continue. But I think we’re gonna get some snow storms in the next few weeks just based on both the availability, cold air and what models seem to be signaling as a more active storm track.

Now I don't quite remember...when's the last time we had a trough that deep over us in a nina?

Agreed on the sun. But atmosphere is cooked just above the surface.

Have you and Mitch gotten married?. Retirement hasn’t been good for either of you.

It's going to be an interesting challenge for the feeble early January sun. 50 is a 32 F recovery for a lot of these locales around here. Easier done even a month from now.

I know youve mentioned you like March...but what do you mean for February re: the knockout punch? Traditionally the east IS warmer but not all out torch like some imply. I really like the look for here. A lot of Nina Februarys have a really nice snowy pattern (but also some mild days). Plus Feb has killed it the last few decades.

It's the AIAmWx model! Nearly 100% accurate every winter and actually doesn't require "AI" per se!!! The only slight modification is that Ji canceling winter for the "22nd time" is a bit underdone, he usually is at that point by Halloween! Oh, and also...we then get a "surprise" moderate or somewhat better storm at the very end of February or first part of March to kind of salvage things, but a lot of people go "meh, March snows suck because they're gone in 2 days anyhow!"

The weekend system also kind of sneakily morphed into a pretty low QPF event. Almost that shredded SWFE look on the precip. The bulk of the WCB misses to our east and the CCB is way back up in eastern Ontario/western Quebec. Leaves us kind of in a dead zone of forcing in between the two.