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What’s all the noise on radar tonight? Showing up on KBOX and KOKX.

It was a treemendous day. The only slight qualm might be it was breezy at times but that’s really nitpicking. I do think the foliage took a little hit yesterday but it is still gorgeous.

Ended up with 1.53" of somewhat surprising and much needed rain. Nice to overperform for once.

High of 84. Rain had finally arrived after a 30 day absent. Picked up 1.14" so far and still raining.

Tomorrow will see temperatures top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. Some showers or a thundershower are possible late in the day or at night as a strong cold front moves across the region. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season perhaps on Tuesday morning and then on Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle and upper 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -24.43 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.803 today.

.53" so far.

Under brilliant sunshine, today was a great day to see some of the migrating hummingbirds and monarchs at the New York Botanical Garden.

Yeah, not too sure how that ultimately plays into all of this either. Unique circumstances.

PDO isn't close, though.

Only one other year is remotely close to this year based purely on the VP200 charts. Similar story as a month ago. That one is 97-98, but this year is stronger...

Also the record summer -SOI

Luckily there are some other ways to view the strength of enso besides SST related metrics and those are pointing at a record event as well. Record WWB's, record shear for the Atlantic hurricane season, VP anomalies that make all the other years pale in comparison. The MEI could be another and I'll be curious to see that once it updates with Sept included plus future updates. RONI vs ONI is an interesting conversation but I think both are likely useful in their own ways.

0.73" event, still some showers

That winter was awesome in Philly. It just snowed and we saw a lot of well timed cold shots.

Looks like a rather ugly start to snow and ice cover season.

I'm fine with no big cold in before Thanksgiving. Save it for winter.

I mean yeah, we are setting temperature records more due to global warming. But when considering records, I don’t consider the anomaly at all, I only consider absolute records. For example, if it is 105 degrees, I don’t consider that it’s a “record” +15 anomaly. I only consider the absolute temperature of the daily, monthly, and all-time record and whether that is lower or higher than 105. If global warming makes it easier to reach that record, that is just reality.

apparently some disagree; my wife was happy, this is her car: I also did the silver Accord; that didn't need as much paint

The NOAA ERSSTv6 Sep PDO was -0.74: -As expected based on WCS, this was less negative than Aug’s -1.12 -This is the least neg Sep since 2019’s +0.44. -2023 Sep was way down at -2.52! -This is the 3rd month in a row that NOAA came in less negative than avg of WCS dailies, which was ~-1.0 in Sep - The NOAA August PDO had come in at -1.12 vs the WCS avg of ~-1.55. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

Setting up for a big season of snowstorms to make up for the deficit from Droughtober

Looks like Hi res keeps all the rain south tomorrow night . Stein settling in for the region rest of month