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What happened to the severe today?

Heading back to W MA this morning after moving to TX for business reasons. Could be the most exciting wx I've seen all spring. With the nino we've had great lapse rates down there several times but hardly any shear. Now we'll see if the opposite can produce. Local pockets might be able to come up with a small amount of surface instability in the valley, kind of hope the line shows up a bit later than progged.

Almost looks like a rain shadow east of the mountains like they get out West.

Looks like it’s possible might get over an inch tonight. Going to be closed on the cut off. .

Hyped to coach a rain practice today, I always loved them when I swam outside.

60F/ .10" in lull for now

West like in Bennington VT or West like Walpole

You are not paying attention. Do you not see the isolated supercell to your W on the HRRR fcst I sent? Very disappointing you are downplaying this event.

Region 1+2 pushing over +3C Yet another new WWB projected

0.15 of rain. It was odd hearing the rain. Been a while.

Hopefully Monday maintains.

It’s better in NNE closer to forcing and 500 temps that aren’t a torch. Never was a debate there.

Morning rain event canceled.

I don't know...

"If it's not in Weymouth, it doesn't matter!" What kind of attitude is that?

Doesn’t matter. Meh here as usual. Congrats to the cows in VT.

Steined again… Hoping Monday can produce. Looks like today is a north of CT/MA deal.

It's going to suck watching that heavy rain and storms in WV dry up as it comes into the desert. Edit: Not falling apart yet. Maybe a morning miracle? We'll see..

4.97”/hr rain rate right now

04z HRRR suggesting "cells ahead of line." So 1-2 punch for some areas. Also, nice sliver of high 0-3km CAPE SNE and a second area for NNE.

Hmmm, CoastalWx and WxWiz be like "???????." 5% tor risk? How can this be? No EML!

...Northeast... Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the region. Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth. However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east, producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a stronger SRH environment farther east.

Ineedsnow will be "X-static" if we get 5% tor, but WxWiz will not b/c he can't chase!

We have a lot of climo for TC tracks globally, so AI has a lot to draw from, so it should do well here. Intensity, not so much. There are still so many things we can't model well for the stronger TCs. The inner cores of the intense ones are basically mesoscale features. RI occurs often in such a short time frame and it is hard for physics-based models to handle. For decades, we have seen a steady improvement in TC tracks, but very little for intensity until the 2010s, when significant improvement occurred. So again, AI should do well for TC tracks. And TC tracks often are latitude/longitude dependent, so this variable is a solid base indicator for AI to use.

This happens *every* time new technology becomes available. It is sold as the best thing since sliced bread w/ lofty claims. I recall in the 80s it was said "in 10-15 year advancement in computer modelling will make human forecasting obsolete!' Right, how did that work out? In fairness, computer modelling advancement has removed a lot of manual work a human used to do, but this is a *good* thing actually. Why?, b/c the shear volume of wx data now is enormous and keeps increasing. We need faster computers and AI to help sort and manage it all (do the grunt heavy lifting) so the human forecast can provide the insight/wisdom/understanding -- which AI does not have -- to give concise and clear messages to all. That's one reason why IDSS is so big in the NWS. Forecasts have become very good, but the real challenge is *communicating* it all effectively in this information overload and social media world. So I would not worry about AI "taking over," so to speak, anytime soon.