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It's a classic setup for a widespread SE and/or MA winter storm. The snow stripe has potential to cover a lot of real estate. The 18z gfs left the key piece behind and that's still possible but it's also on its own right now. The gfs version would be a weak/sheared storm that could still hit the MA but big totals wouldn't be there. Suppression is a risk for sure and that includes my yard. The stronger the storm the less chance of suppression because it's hard to fight off a stronger storm from gaining latitude. Especially in the SE/MA. Imho, if the shortwave doesn't hang back like the gfs shows, there's going to be a nice event for the TN valley, SE, and MA. It will prob include a decent stripe of sleet and freezing and freezing rain somewhere with the SE being favored. The all snow areas just to the north of the mix will do very well. Could be my yard, could be yours. Impossible to know that right now and not worth dissecting. Only thing we should care about is whether there is a solid cohesive storm coming or a weaker/sheared event. If it's a cohesive classic storm the MA would be all snow. I have a lot more mixing risk but walking that line is often one of the jack zones. I feel pretty optimistic about a fun storm that covers a lot of real estate buy until we're inside of 96 hours, can't marry any idea. We could all get zero and NC south getting hit flush.

Can tell there is starting to be a real threat possibly of a major winter impact storm. Eastern valley is having to thread a needle potentially, so to speak...even 93 had to thread the needle.

And it’s on the weekend…which we’re really good at.

Some good rates over nyc rn. Back edge still in eastern pa. I'd say another inch or 2 is possible.

AI GFS and AI Euro did pretty good this week. They better not let us down next week.

FWIW here are the Euro AIFS ensemble member mslps at hour 144:

Hard to accrete heavy ZR

You can see locations of posters when you do that

Not impressed with the radar for those NW of 84.

Can we get the thread for the next weekend storm pinned?

6.5 currently on the ground in western Jersey and dumping right now. Taking into account settling, I’d say that number is pretty spot on out here with maybe another inch before it shuts off. .

Respect to your avatar sir!

Euro went from a massive snow storm to a massive ice storm for NC. Hope this isn’t the start of it going to crap and it trends colder again.

Just S- but still gradually accumulating. 79047335399__DAD25EBB-EF9F-45DA-AF59-5E539D56085D.MOV

Thank you! I try to repay for my sins of earlier posting for those who remember it.

Both AIs are good for us and EURO came north

@stormtracker happy (early) MLK day to you as well!

Ripping out there, definitely wet though which will probably keep totals down.

What did I miss here? What works if you flip your phone to horizontal???

So wait. What you’re saying is this thing may be at 120hours tomm this time? What a minute hold the fuck up….

Finished up with about 0.25 in my yard - enough to give the grass and mulch a nice coating. The driveway even "caved" a bit. Was a nice two-day event. Could've been better, for sure, but at least we weren't expecting much and it wasn't a total fail. I'll roll the dice again in the future.

27f moderate snow 2.2” additional now. 15.2” on year now. That 5.1” two day total on the Euro on Saturday morning may be correct for this location.

100% on the weather sisters. the old DC-ish crew from when I lived in DC. my "new" I-81 buddies. and a few people from outside the region who still stop by because they also remember the one giant forum days. this is my 21st year with this crazy community.

Before then I think we all took it as some sort of joke, but now we take it real serious when it shows something, whether it's the same or different than what other guidance shows.