All Activity

I think it's simply a misunderstanding and always has been. I always knew that anything you look at 10-15 days away is very volatile, likely to change some, and details are impossible to glean. But knowing something and behaving accordingly are two different things! When there was nothing to look at within 5 days I would often waste too much time wanting something at day 10 to mean more than it does. Now... I do something else. Invest my time more wisely. However, I do still think there is value in long range forecasting. Look at this PD threat. It's not likely to end up snow BUT its close and the idea of this possible storm was hinted at from day 15 on. Thats valuable. We saw this general setup if you knew how to look at the data and analyze what it was hinting at. The specifics that will determine whether we actually get snow...the EXACT track of the storm and exactly how cold it is...won't be known until its closer...even now it's unknown...but the general setup was picked out way in advance. We saw the snow/ice storm we got Jan 25 from 2 weeks out...the general threat of it anyways. The details weren't known until later. So it depends what your expectations are. IF you expect to see details (like being able to make a specific forecast and saying we're going to get 6" of snow) from 10-15 days away then no...its not useful at all for that. But can the long range guidance suggest possible storm threats from that range yes...as long as it's understood it's just a general threat window not a specific forecast.

Think he meant Charlottetown.

Today, just bringing over the 2025-26 snowfall contest entries from the previous contest year thread. ____ Table of Snowfall forecasts for winter 2025-26 ____ FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV wxallannj _______________________23.0 _28.0 _ 28.0 __45.0 _44.0 _89.0 ___44.0 _18.0 _ 99.0 Tom ____________________________ 19.5 _ 31.1 _ 44.5 __ 40.1 _42.4 _102.4 __ 54.8 _ 6.1 _ 81.4 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 18.0 _ 22.0 _ 31.0 __ 32.0 _42.0 _93.0 ___52.0 _ 4.0 _ 88.0 wxdude64 _____________________ 15.6 _ 28.6 _ 41.1 ___30.3 _45.5_ 101.5 ___ 66.2 _ 4.7 _ 93.3 BKViking _______________________ 15.0 _ 32.0 _ 41.0 __40.0 _22.0_ 96.0 ___ 58.0 _13.0 _ 80.0 Rjay ____________________________ 15.0 _ 21.0 _ 44.0 __50.0 _33.0_ 100.0 ___65.0 _ 6.0 _ 90.0 ___ Consensus _________________ 15.0 _ 22.5 _ 39.5 __40.1 _42.2 _ 94.5 ___ 55.2 _ 6.1 _ 87.5 Scotty Lightning _______________ 15.0 _ 20.0 _ 25.0 __ 30.0 _45.0 _85.0 ___ 50.0 _ 5.0 _ 95.0 so_whats_happening __________ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 39.0 __ 42.0 _40.0 _91.0 ___ 38.0 _ 4.0 _ 87.0 Roger Smith ____________________12.8 _ 25.6 _ 50.7 __ 57.3 _ 61.5 _115.7 ___ 70.0 _12.5 _ 88.8 DonSutherland1 ________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ 40.0 __ 37.5 _45.0 _ 92.0 ___ 40.0 _ 6.5 _ 80.0 RodneyS ________________________ 6.7 _ 18.9 _ 35.7 __ 44.4 _49.1 _ 99.9 ___ 55.6 _ 9.1 _ 70.4 Mercurial ________________________1.0 _ 10.0 _ 20.0 __ 30.0 _ 30.0 _70.0 ___ 65.0 _ 6.0 _ 60.0 ___ snowfall to date (Dec 31) ____8.6 _21.2 __41.1 ___ 32.1 __36.2 _77.6 ___13.4 _ 0.0 _ 62.0 % of consensus to date ________ 57 __ 94 ___104 ____ 80 __ 86 ___ 82 _____ 24 ___ 0 __ 71 ===================== Consensus for snowfall is the median of 12 forecasts

That April 1982 blizzard was the most extreme out of season blizzard with record cold that I have ever experienced. Probably near a record number of lightning flashes for any snowstorm. The extended Newark records back to 1843 show how impressive it was even ranked against the much colder 1800s climate. April Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.8 1915-04-04 0 - 15.8 1915-04-03 0 2 12.8 1982-04-07 0 - 12.8 1982-04-06 0 3 12.0 1924-04-02 0 4 9.5 1854-04-17 0 5 8.0 1850-04-06 0 - 8.0 1850-04-05 0 6 7.0 1916-04-09 0 7 6.0 1862-04-09 0 8 5.5 1896-04-08 0 - 5.5 1896-04-07 0 9 5.2 1938-04-07 0 10 5.0 2018-04-03 0 - 5.0 2018-04-02 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1923 13 0 2 1982 16 0 3 1857 17 0 4 1856 20 0 5 1874 21 0 - 1868 21 0 - 1855 21 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1982 30 0 2 1938 32 0 - 1857 32 0 3 1898 33 0 - 1862 33 0 4 1919 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 - 1868 34 0 5 1943 35 0 - 1879 35 0 - 1875 35 0

Looks like KLEB is having a sensor issue: https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLEB.html

Some drone footage too: https://imgur.com/a/DdlU4u6

imagine a grown ass man getting butthurt over faceless screennames on a weather messaging board calling him mean names.

lol the only member that is over 1" and it is a 2' bomb

For the atheists: https://imgur.com/a/L5eUust

She doesn't listen to me, and in fact doubles down...lol

Pretty much all guidance has something late next week. It’s just a question of whether we press a high down ahead of it for a winter event or if it’s a cutter or pseudo-cutter.

After you bashed GFS. Go warm up a bottle.

When we're warm, I watch the Mammoth area YouTube channels. They've gotten 17 inches in the last 24 hours. Which is light for them.

You have to a long talk with mother nature again as it is cloudy all day again. You have to stress to her we need sunshine

Some light snizzle here. Bit of a surprise and might add a few nanometers to the snowpack.

Good, 2 months of really, really cold weather. And we can only mustard one snowstorm.It's pretty sad.I really hope we get something else.Before the cold weather leaves

amazing how warm that's on the brink of being, too. the unabashed 7 0 if that mean p-boundary aligns 100 mi NW

Yep a nice cutter

Euro is a horrible model. Go with the gfs.

Did EPS trend south for Sun/Mon as well?

We need a good drenching rain storm of 1”+. Looks like that’s coming after Feb. 18-20

Drip drip