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2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah, I thought we were talking about ENSO. That 1987 is a really good find, as that was probably one of the most El Nino Summers on record, JJA ONI was +1.5c -
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The Appleton tornado damage path was 12.1 miles long, and 0.85 mile wide, EF-3
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
But the summer of 1987 was hot based on the climo centered on the period it was within as I posted. Why are you comparing it to more recent (hotter) climo that makes it not seem as hot? Also, the hottest was in the E 1/2 of the US regardless of what climo you use. -
Dewgust 2026: Summer's Last Stand
bristolri_wx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Looks like a repeat of July. HHH the first week of August. After that much closer to normal or below... -
Dewgust 2026: Summer's Last Stand
bristolri_wx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
That's not the look you want to see on the CFS if you like warm and dewey. One person in farting in North Dakota is enough to trigger the CFS to show above normal temps... -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That was still a cooler summer by recent standards. June-August 1987 71.77°F -0.54°F -
Dewgust 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Damage In Tolland replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Sunrise surprise Monday -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Oh okay gotcha thanks Jeff also agreed and yep we shall see by day 1 tomorrow .
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Maybe @KakashiHatake2000. Their afternoon text mentions conditional instability. Might come south a wee bit if the temp fcst gets warmer, but the turning is better north. I also infer they thought about 5% up there in Kentucky or IN/OH near the TP, but held off. Probably a Day 1 call this time of year. Things are not synoptically evident Day 2 in meso-scale season. If time were not an issue, Dayton OH would be a lovely starting point.
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Happy chasing Jeff hope you catch one are you think 2% could be expanded southward .
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Here’s another unusual one: the summer of ‘87 was similarly hot in the E 1/2 of the U.S. overall and El Niño wasn’t just weak as it was moderate to strong that summer: -
That's go to Crossville and ask questions later. Official does not get down there, but it's only 90 minutes for me to get up there. If the line really does re-develop east of Nashville, that's prime for it to reach the Plateau as it's maturing. That part of Kentucky is doable too, but farther to drive. Doable is relative in the South - some breaks vs straight forest and mountains.
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El Nino and -PDO sounds like a recipe for a warm active southern stream and lots of severe weather! My sabre rattling aside that '23-24 year was a bit unusual. Usually the PDO gets in line with Nino. You'd think a super nino would drive the bus. Still several months for it to resolve. Then yea see what the QBO is trending in fall. As I've written before I care a lot more about the slope/trend than the value.
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I use Benjamin Moore Woodluxe. I’ve been in paint business for 43 years . And use all Benjamin Moore paints and stains. Most of my work is high end clients in the Potomac and Bethesda neighborhoods. Hope that helps.
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Sneaky warm day here-up to 88.
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A cluster of thunderstorms has moved E into the SAV area. Rain started here just after 3PM. Heavy rain started at 3:25PM.
