All Activity

Grocery stores tomorrow!!

I understand that, just wondering if they have explained their climo reasoning at all anywhere

With last system last weekend, HRRR was consistently warmer than obs for surface temperatures and didn't have a good handle on radiative influences in my opinion, but it did indeed do quite well with overall depiction of the small areas that would end up with some token flakes / a dusting (in NC at least), much better than the NAM. However, way too far out to put much stock in the HRRR.

Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then? Are they basing it solely on the Euro?

You want to be on the east slope of the ORH hills....on or east of the spine.

How is it compared to the 18z GFS?

Amen brother!!!!

Freezing rain is separate from sleet. Freezing rain is accrual which accumulates on trees, ground, power lines, etc. That's ice accumulation

I've always wondered... do you all do some kind of on-duty rotations or how do you handle coverage? Also, maybe some sort of crowdfunding/gofundme could be set up so folks could donate if they wanted to. I don't know how you all find the time and I've always found this to be a very well-moderated forum even back when I was at peak political douche phase and picking arguments with everyone in the off-topic swamp folks let me say my piece.

Not a dru patch, just subsidence behind that band in northern MD.

I was hoping the 1.33k NAM was being run over the Mid Atl tonight. maybe tomorrow 12z or 0z?

Might wanna put this in banter, lol

Out to 27...2-3 degrees colder over E TN.

Better press so far

Another CIPS analog here that did tick a bit northwest by go time, fairly close in to the event: https://www.weather.gov/lot/2014feb05 Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

They are smartly playing to climo. People need to realize models are a tool. Not the end all be all for them. Just one piece of a puzzle they are trying to finish.

They always have been lol they like to hype it up for viewership .

Has NWS given any reasoning why they are so bullish on amounts?

Even more shocking is the same can be said for central Maryland, just north of DC. 14 days and the highest high modeled is 27°F. With at least three nights below zero.

I don't see 10" in Easton otherwise.

ABSOLUTELY! I don't think anyone should be thinking anything about this storm is set in stone, the tiniest things off by just a little can make a huge difference. Whether that surface temps off by a couple degrees or strength of the storm off by a few MB, or storm tracks 50 or 100 miles off modeled track. All of those things are super minor and might not be modeled well but have huge impacts. This storm for us will really be a nowcast scenario, this storm I am certain will have surprises both good and bad I believe for different areas. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

When JB posted that, he just guaranteed the bullish gfs scenario isn’t gonna happen. Thanks a lot JB!

I saw Mary Ours/KDKA forecast and I’m in 5-10” area and the NAM has my house in the 4” hole-ughhhh

Yes! terrific way to put that. Non-linear wave functions, often expose their influence with that kind of transcendent appeal.

That ice forecast is freezing rain accrual. Sleet gets counted as snow accumulation.