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EURO had a huge one last Feb for Upper OHV thru Michigan, but not as much widespread as this one.

The 18z GFS output verbatim is an extreme fantasy. However, the pattern shaping up around that time absolutely screams some type of SWFE type event that could involve a large areal coverage. Something we are keeping an eye on at range. For now, it's not real life, it's just fant-....oh, you get it.

If the -AO is for real that’s being shown. The MJO may have no say so in the matter. One thing even the wx office here in Nashville has said in the past. “A -AO almost always means it’s going to get really cold here.” So we have a -EPO -NAO -AO. That’s a heck of a trio for us to have.

Just putting this here for posterity.

It is. There's two apparently! Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

If 0z shows anything resembling 18z, Mahk may go Scooter’s route…

I thought Sam’s Gap was where I-26 crosses the NC/TN border. .

Hey Carver! I am not in that one…I did meet Joe D’aleo in 1984 when I got to do a two week job shadow in high school there. I never did meet John Coleman. I didn’t start until 89 and both were gone. I am, however, in the other book. There is a 4 or 5 page segment on the behind the scenes chapter where I got some love! https://www.amazon.com/Weather-Channel-Improbable-Media-Phenomenon/dp/B004JU1T2U

I’m just looking at the pattern and how shortwaves are moving. I don’t think it will be bone dry…we’ll have some chances to work with

Never gonna happen lol

PSA Reminder: All models are wrong, some are...that's right...useful. Even clown maps can be beneficial in signaling a storm or pattern's ceiling, laugh at them we may. Sometimes, we just got to zoom out and appreciate we're smack-dab in the best 7-month stretch of the year (10/1-4/30). Plus, we're looking at net positive trends approaching peak winter climo. That should keep our forum hopefully optimistic the next few weeks, barring anything unforeseen.

Heavy frost this morning with a low of 27. High was a mild 61.

Well 300 hrs out will do that. That’ll be gone at 0z…but you knew that already.

I’m going to need to check out the radar loop for that run. .

I've never witnessed a map like that outside of some lake effect in the Tug, and certainly never for SWPA. Like 50 inches of that falls in 24 hours. Dear God lol. That's a fantasy run if I ever saw one. The region would be crippled for weeks. Might never see a snow map like that again, need to save that one.

Wow, that 18Z GFS was smoking something!! I want what it's having!! Even here in metro DC, a ton of sleet followed by 6-10" snow with temps in the teens or 20s?? Gimme that! But in all seriousness, I don't quite get a lot of the cynicism here. OK, ignoring what the GFS shows verbatim at this point (which on its face is ridiculous amounts)...the fact is, there has been indication of that type of setup over the past few days for that time frame across different models and ensembles. Hell, even the venerated Euro a couple of days ago showed basically double the amount of PD-2!! I know these are extremes unless this really starts showing up across all guidance and it gets closer. Again though, that time period around Jan. 23-26 has shown several possibilities now for a potential moderate-major overrunning event with cold air pressing in up top and then behind the system. That's my takeaway right now.

I tend to get excited pretty easily about these things, but I’m having no excitement about one 18Z model run

Thank you @Blizzard of 93! Let’s hope that snow map you posted even comes to 1/4 true. It seems bleak at the moment.

And we've had so many great patterns produce nothing so I'll take our chances with cold air around. The dry pattern is obviously a concern

This is our reward for Patullo getting released! Seriously though It will be gone in one of the next two runs and I will be on here tomorrow morning bitching again.

I've had two nice hits of 3.5 and 4.5 inches right up the hwy here in Harrison this month - hopefully something will come along soon that hits Mt Pleasant.

Look how much this changed in just 2 days of runs:

Go in & select Account & then select Ignored Users and then enter their user name to add whoever to your list. It only took a minute to set up.

This was a lot like Jan '78 but further west track straight up over Kzoo! I'd stumbled on this years ago reading old newspaper clippings. Glad to see some confirmation that it was a beast of a storm west of the track. With cold era, this stuff used to have a chance. Can't buy a latitude bomb lately.