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2025-2026 ENSO
donsutherland1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Blizzard of 93 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
We still have to deal with whatever Tuesday am brings before our short lived Spring break… Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1203 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066-011715- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 1203 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible on Tuesday before changing to or ending as rain. -
Guaranteeing probably not? What does that even mean? And what is this guarantee based on? How can you make good on this guarantee?
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Looks like I'm down over 20" in a couple days
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A more gradual increase in temps is preferred on my end. A spike warmer only to only return back cooler is just a tease.
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Still full snow coverage here. Looks a lot better here than places 10 miles to my south that got 6-8” more snow on Monday.
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Topped out 50 here today. Next week looking wet, might be a good time to change the oil on the snowblower & stow it away in storage after the 15th of this month.
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Well today put a hole in the ice damns so no need to worry about that for the year. Looking ahead, it appears to be a slow melt for our area with no major events. I will take it.
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@stormtracker did you make some changes to the max file size? It looks like it almost tripled in size
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Sudden stratosphere warming is happening in the next few days. I think we'll get another event between the 17th and the 25th. Winter isn't over until we get screwed 3 times.
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It’s not but teachers trying to get day off again
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This was a super 2010-11-esque winter. Cold but lacking in snow, missed a blockbuster storm due to marginal temps, NYC scored a well above average season while our region gets another below average.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
WmsptWx replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Got to 63°F in Toontown according to my car thermometer. Good riddance, winter. -
Sounds like you've prepared your argument.
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Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
NAO decadal cycle seems to run in 40-50 year phases. This one started in the 1980s. Some were saying this next Solar Min could get more -NAO conditions going -
We are due for a Moderate Nino with a negative NAO next year then.
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I’m ready. It’s been a long, cold, lonely winter. .
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Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Strong +NAO in late Feb/March is probably going to give us now 15/16 Winters (DJFM) in a row with +NAO, although barely positive this winter. The only -NAO winter in that stretch was only -0.24. -
Thanks! Was just looking through my photos from that time, and it was nuts. .
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Yeah and those fields will be warmest too in summer… vs a neighborhood with dense vegetation and evapotranspiration. Trades dew points for temperature essentially under the foliage canopy.
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48 was my high
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Looking forward to it.
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Another ob, the last place to melt out here, stonewalls....every year.
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OTOH, a wide open field melts out faster than a plot with either trees or buildings. I think that's due to air flow, but on a longer timeline. Just an observation on my part.
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850s +3C…south flow…2/28 sun I’ll give him 58° and BDL 62°
