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  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Briefly is likely. The problem along 95 is the time of year. Water temps are still in the low 60s in the north east. So even if we get a couple 40/70 tracks in the time frame it’s hard to pull anything off. We saw that with October 11 storm. If it had been a month later 95 would have seen 12”+ totals. Our best bet is a second disruption in late January that gives us a window in February. .
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    1994-95 is a sneaky good analog. Maybe even better than 1997-98. I know 94-95 wasn't as strong of an el nino, but this is the closest match we have with the PDO (-), QBO (+), NAO, AO, and solar.
  4. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  5. Chinook
    tornado warning at a place between Minneapolis and Duluth. The place is called Siren.
  6. EasternLI
    So, if you can have a weakened vortex. That part is important. Plus this residual -AAM in the mid latitudes. With something like a +MT to shove it towards the pole. You'd stand a pretty good chance to see some high latitude blocking actually.
  7. OrdIowPitMsp
    My ski hill is about to get wiped out.
  8. wncsnow
    The leaves are beautiful on the eastern escarpment not as beautiful French Broad River Valley.
  9. Torchageddon
    It was wonderful cycling out this aft. I got to 20C/68F with clear blue skies. Last 20C+ day was Oct 13.
  10. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  12. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  13. WinterWolf
    We knew it wasn’t gonna last much longer…although some thought stein through at least the first half of November.
  14. Chinook
    some severe weather north and south of Minneapolis
  15. ineedsnow
    Sweet looking sky a bit ago
  16. kdxken
    Here comes the bitch.
  17. ineedsnow
    Its everywhere around here and not in a elevated valley.. maybe because the region is higher as a whole?
  18. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  19. Terpeast
    Yes. I would personally love to run the 25-26 analog back again, even if two KUs had missed my area. Flip side, running 09-10 again might not produce a record snowfall.
  20. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably right, but you also have to leave open for the possibility that the longer range defaults towards climo.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it lags, but it leads you to the driver.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023-2024 had strong MC forcing though, which as you know is significant source of destructive interference for high latitude blocking. I don't deny that this is probably CC enhanced, and perhaps it won't end up meaning much...I'm open to that, but I don't think that we can summarily dismiss it as an artifact of CC.
  24. EasternLI
    12Z runs similar to 00Z. 98% EPS. 70% GEFS. Interesting little trend though lately on both Op runs with longer lasting reversals.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Getting Modoki value correct is part of what comprises an accurate ENSO forecast....you want to say EURO has been best, okay....but it's not been perfect is all I mean.
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but it's still off...doesn't matter why.
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    I told you why I doubted the magnitude...had nothing to do with a desire for cold.
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