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Terpeast probably was worried he was going to have to eat his shoe so he's happy that this run of the gfs is the final solution

My guess is this ends up being something flatter which would benefit most in the Ptype department but I don’t think you’d be looking at any beefy totals. Probably borderline warning criteria for some towns. I mean which is still great for early Dec…but you’ll see a lot of disappointed people in the totals because they didn’t live up to clown map expectations

Haha. Let's hope so. I try to post in snippets as I have found over the years that those are easier to read than the essay posts - which I still use. In other words, I think it is easier for folks (most of us are used to social media posts which are shorter) to ready the shorter posts. Plus, sometimes I will have a big post which is "in process" as I look at model suites...and then it gets lost due to a refresh or any number of user errors. Plus, I can delete an inaccurate or poorly worded "shorter" post and not lose an entire train of thought. Truly, it is a lot more fun when everyone else is posting. I like that the most by a long shot. I think that is when our forum is at its best. When it is quiet over the holidays or weekday mornings...sometimes I will post more. But you all make the place what it is.

With the volatility of guidance right now I think we’ll have a good idea about what happens after it happens

Unhappy hour am I right!?

took mine out of the shed and greased/changed the oil. in the garage now, since there's a chance

It’s a raging rainstorm well north and west of NYC and into New England.

It was farther south and east until hour 99 than the 12z run, then it became more amped than 12z from hr 102 forward. My guess is GFS goes back SE at 00z run...

Reiterates in my mind that if I want snow....I pretty much have to travel for it.

As much as I want to believe the GFS is too amped, it would really fit the tenor of the past 3 years

12Z Euro had the low scooting off the coast at Myrtle Beach. GFS keeps parking a 998 over Nanticoke, MD. Maybe tomorrow we can get a better idea about Tuesday.

18z GFS has been drinking. You don't want to discount it as a possibility, but, with the accuracy of the GFS in our next of the woods recently and it not being part of the consensus guidance, I'm hesitant to believe that track as well.

The 18z GFS is right along the Ohio River Valley w/ the southern edge of the system. I could make a good case for either result. Climatology tends to support the northern track, but it really depends on how strong the high is over the top of this system.

Gate crashing here because this might be the more interesting thread over the next week. I'm in the Catskills on Wednesday, so there's that. Of course if I'm placing my bet on the LHV, that could be the kiss of death so I am apologizing in advance. Regardless of outcome, it looks like December will keep our attention.

I doubt its coming in this amped. Not even going to have any serious thoughts on this until Sunday morning or early afternoon.

Scott and son at the Sandbar that run

If Frederick gets 21 and I get 4, I might go old school Ji in here.

GFS on an island… usually ends only one way

Well then we'd better call Tyrone and tell him come home with that snow squall!

All other models shift south, gfs shifts to rain even for most of Pa lol

The 18z GFS does not have this. But here is the 18z RGEM at range. I think the GFS is a bit too amped. The RGEM might be a little over done in Middle TN, but time of day is crucial. This is basically a midnight to 1:00AM onset.

PF sitting back smiling, this is easily the most amped run yet, rains almost all of Ma into parts of Nh

41.5 for the high which is coldest of season

Yep