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Doesn't work out for us

We aren’t going to get more snow this year, are we? These models make me so sad.

We had a solid dusting earlier when the 5-minute squall came through. Mix of heavy graupel and snow. The wind has been ridiculous today. My Xmas tree is on the curb and twice now i've had to chase it more than a block up the street. I finally gave up and put it in the garage.

18z gfs may deliver

Think that is right - this isn't necessarily digging more, but rather staying too positively tilted for too long.

I think the closed low was actually better positioned (further west and slight neg tilt) vs 12z

shut up ji. At least wait for the euro

every time we are at a crossroads...............

Gonna need the inverted trough thing with the low offshore NC

It's not good

The problems in all guidance could not be any more glaringly obvious ... It's all exceptionally highly sensitive to wave spacing issues. Sorry to keep hitting this aspect; I'm not seeing many of you writing about it. The diving "2nd wave" is bullying into the trough, imparting a polar oriented correction vector to the flow - trying to lift it up; that is directly opposing/offsetting the ability for the lead wave space to intrinsically dig/maintain amplitude. done deal. game over. that all has to iron itself out such that: a, one or the other becomes dominant or b, neither will be very significant. or c, some minoring event transpires perhaps out of both -... but in this case, the 2nd is a wild card. And Scott's right big time. The baroclinic axis is getting swept seaward and is not recovering in some of these guidance. That was magnificently spelled out in the 00z GFS, which showed an explosion of squally -linear convection out over the outer g-string, gobbling up al the moisture dynamics and running away with it. There's no other way in nature to demonstrate that without y'all learning Navier-Stokes

Maybe 18z too positively tilted?

It's either slower than 12z or gunna be not so good.

Go figure. Surface looks worse tho 12z Surface was better. This run, H5 is better. I dunno

Gonna be a bit north, but lets see

While closed at 500mb and a bit west, the trough is also a bit broader and the shortwave out in front robs the best dynamics. It's largely a whiff.

Whatever we need to get 3-4 inches. Thanks for the play by play. .

no snow for most on the gfs I think

I have not heard the wind once here today. Not complaining!

Actually kinda looks better than 12z at H5 so far. S.w digs to same latitude, but slightly further west

Elliot…ARE YOU FOOKING KIDDING ME!!

Oh yeah the Euro nailed the H5 pattern but has been way off on temperatures and moisture. The gfs is handling short range better in my opinion. The GFS did a much better job at the rainfall this week and still underestimated rainfall totals in most of WNC. The temperatures have been atrocious at lead time and I mean some 20 to 30 degrees bad but it's H5 pattern has been stellar so go figure. I like the look for mid week but as most know im an optimist and this looks like the best chance for snow since November really. As you noted. Honestly I don't even look at the gfs anymore for mid to longe range leads.

Nice snow shower at my parents house (in Airmont NY)

What we need to dig ain't digging enough so far. Seems just short of 12z attm

Sunny here most the day. Really nice sunset