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Looks like a decent storm to the south of Hickory currently.

Big heat is gone for now and we quickly turn our attention to an unusual summer setup. Weak high to the north, a weak low to the south, and an all-important warm front which will wring out PWATs of 1.5-2.0" between late tonight and Tuesday. Flood watches are up for CT, which may be expanded depending on where the axis of heaviest rain sets up. Ensemble guidance has a heavy rain signal Some high resolution guidance goes wild. The main takeaway is that while there may be a sizable area of meaningful rain (my forecast is 2-4 generally for CT) there is high end localized flash flooding potential where the warm front sets up. Most models have been fairly consistent in focusing the heaviest general and localized rain in SNE. For most, the mitigating factors here are 1) Outside of the axis of heaviest rain this is likely to be a spread out rainfall over many hours rather than short burst deluge and 2) antecedent conditions have been relatively dry, though many in CT have seen rain in recent days. Let's discuss. Let's flood.

Have my brother coming to pick up my dog in a half hour Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Fireworks canceled, the rest on i think

A flash flood watch is way different than a river flood watch Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

There is one pop up storm near Durham just west of Falls Lake but yeah it would be nice to get something. Could be some pulse severe with DCAPE values being quite high and no shear.

give me 7 inches of rain i need this so badly

At least the radar is lighting up like a christmas tree this afternoon close to us all here in central NC. Hopefully the cloud cover in spots will help hold the hotter temps down some.

That's a good question. I guess maybe it takes a few days for rivers to start responding to runoff? I know that the Susquehanna here in Marietta doesn't reach its crest until several days after rain has ended.

WHAT?! Holy shit, amazing! https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/49277378/usmnt-folarin-balogun-red-card-suspended-belgium

SBY @MN Transplant RIC @me

We are doing a pet delivery service from the store to employee and friend homes.

The difference between this Nino and 2023, even 2015 are night and day. We have seen a complete trade wind reversal this year along with relentless WWBs/westerlies since April and it’s going to continue as far as the eye can see, augmented by the TC’s and the MJO progression this month. This year, unlike 2023 or even 2015 for that matter, we are seeing the WWBs and DWKWs easily propagating east of the dateline. 2023 and 2015 actually saw EWBs even up to this point in time and the trade winds just kept fighting back….this year….nope, not even close. @csnavywx pointed this out about a month ago. This El Niño is just going to continue to strengthen and strengthen till its heart’s content with nothing to counter it, right through this fall

I’d assume the warning was for urban runoff

Not to mention that you took the title for Lowest Departure at IAD! Here are the individual airports. DCA @GramaxRefugee BWI @JenkinsJinkies IAD @NorthArlington101 by tiebreaker over @WxUSAF

Not saying it will happen, but every now and then a lower parameter day will surprise and out perform the prior day. Always fun because it just goes to prove microscale stuff sometimes just says F known science and does its own thing!

Went hiking this morning and came across this guy on one of our trails. Luckily we left the dog home! He was very aggressive and rattling nonstop.

Explain this to me. They put out a flash flood warning. Then an hour after they put that out, they lower the river forecast from 2.30’ to 1.44’ not even close to high water. “For Williamsport “

What about ratios?

I have all my shades drawn locked in my ice cold basement for now. Have not seen one ppl truck, borough truck, tree removal or Anything that gives me any hope here Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think I saw vortex95 mention this but the reflectivity gradient along the leading edge of those storms was about as textbook as you'll see for these parts, hell that would even be impressive anywhere else. Anytime you see a super strong wind signature like that I guess there is the risk for a brief spinup but I don't think there was anything really pointing towards a tornado or rotation. Velocity signatures on all radar sites was pretty evident with straight-line wind signatures and if you look at the environment, there really wasn't anything supportive for tornado formation. Just a textbook classic setup for straightline winds and widespread given the development of a cold pool.

I think we’ll see a 5-8” jackpot setup somewhere - maybe CT (?) based on some of the more recent guidance I’ve seen. Admittedly too soon to know where but the atmosphere is ripe to produce some prolific rainfall somewhere in the tristate area over the next 48 hours.

I thought the same thing about my pws,but the similar obs in there area definitely lend credence to it being legit. What I don’t understand is I am close to the river (less than 300 yards) not exactly an urban area, lots of big mature trees, and yet still hit 106! Here is my run over the last 4 days. July 1-103 July 2- 105 Max HI of 125!!! July 3-104 July 4-106 with all that said, my PWS definitely runs warm in the winter!

Meh. The parameters are pretty much all worse than yesterday. Should still have the potential for microbursts or storm complexes.

Some may pick up the rain as if it were a tropical system…if guidance is on to anything.