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Can’t wait to see the 3k NAM thrown out all over twitter by a bunch of bots. So dumb.

The 12z RGEM is an intense storm too but because of where it stalls, the winds would be northerly, and then offshore, saving the coast from the worst flooding.

You are as bad as everyone on twitter showing these 925MB maps... Where is the mountains in NJ. LOL

We got to Ocean City in August and they just finished up a beach replenishment project-wonder how much of it they lose this weekend?

Polo is just something else. Jaw dropping satellite imagery this past week. Also seems like Nolo may be become better organized too

Yikes. Hopefully you make a full and speedy recovery.

Also the timing is wildly different. The storm is still intensifying as the run ends. And there’s a ridiculous amount of rain lurking just offshore.

Still terrible for the NJ shore

that's much difference than the 12K NAM which sends it into the DELMARVA

From NHC: Resilient Fay has strengthened this morning. Deep convective curved bands have developed both on the west and east sides of the cyclone, and a small cold cloud top deep burst of convection is persisting over the surface center. Based on the improved cloud pattern and an increase in the Dvorak satellite intensity estimated from TAFB, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt. Fay remains over warm ocean waters and a favorable upper-level wind environment. Only a relatively stable, dry surrounding atmosphere is preventing Fay from strengthening significantly. By the weekend, deep-layer shear is expected to increase, which should induce a weakening trend. Subsequently, Fay is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low. Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/5 kt. This general motion should continue with a slight reduction in forward speed through dissipation on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the skilled HFIP HCCA and GDMI TC ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 29.8N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.8N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 29.7N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 29.6N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 29.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 29.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

The old EE rule in effect now... would be crazy tidal flooding I would think with the prolonged NE fetch.

Euro Ai was throwing decent qpf back west of me.

close up

Seaside is a mess already

Up we go

The 3k NAM has a small area of hurricane force surface winds NW of the center on Saturday afternoon. Incredible.

Barnegat Bay communities are going to get whacked pretty good. Mystic Islands, Tuckerton, etc. Regardless the surf and erosion on the shore this is going to be significant for the bays.

yeah, it's early for sure, but the fall of 2002 (also a nino yr) had a bunch in Sept starting on Labor day.

This, Ruptured tendon, Partially torn tendon, Fractured hamate bone, Carpal tunnel surgery, Certainly wasn't going to be typing on a keyboard.

Excuse me but....did S NJ just get NAM'd??

The silent assassin.

When was the comparable last nasty cold core nor’easter that occurred in your area as early as late Sept? The ones I recall off the top of my head for your area waited at least til Oct and were mainly in the latter half of Oct to boot.

Have a wedding in Wildwood, NJ friday night. Looks breezy. Hopefully this thing scoots further up the coast and just doesn't rot off the delmarva. Just the nam being the nam.