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Where is @CoastalWx in this discussion? He is oddly quiet! "Fake" radiational cooling cold repeated ends up making epic deep layer cold in the Arctic and builds very strong high pressure, and that spills down into the CONUS eventually. Very low 1000-500 thk and 925/850 and the sfc very cold as well.

Wtg Brewers!!

Watching Bryson play Sugarloaf in Maine. They keep trying to push the foliage being beautiful etc. but he’s at least a week past peak, maybe two. I’m not sure when it was shot but the drone shots make it look like stick season.

It turns fake as soon as it becomes inverted.

Todays GFS runs near the 15 day mark indicated some white flakes/slop in the region. Going to feel like winter even if the flakes do not materialize

The real question is, would it still be real if the temp was 31 right now? Or would that be fake?

61F real degrees at 9:30pm here. Can take the dog out with shorts on. Windows are open. Can’t do that when it’s fake. Cherish these mild evenings before the long winter.

It was gorgeous. Played 9 after work for the last time this year. Hopefully can get one more round in Sunday. That’s the last the course is open.

Including 1997 as an analog isn't intellectually lazy in and of itself....it's in my composite with ample data to support it. You can identify MC forcing by looking at where the velocity potential, highest precipitation rate and OLR are focused....if it's in the MC, then it's MC forcing. This year it is not....2023 it was, 2015 it was somewhat....I don't see this year being dry given the intensity of El Niño and absence of MC forcing.

New Water Level Record in Huntington Beach

lol….I was thinking of that scene.

Currently, the extended range shows the development of an EPO+/WPO+/AO-/NAO-/PNA+ pattern. The ECMWF-AIFS is shows temperature anomalies consistent with such a pattern at 240 hours. Its solution is especially close to a cluster of past teleconnection cases. When rolled forward 5 days, the cluster matches up quite well with the 360-hour ECMWF-AIFS forecast. I narrowed the temperature range so the anaomalies are easier to see. So far, there's nothing truly eventful. However, five days out, one see a lot more cool air in the CONUS. Canada remains mild. That would be at odds with the powerful El Niño in the run-up to December. However, it could be a hint of how the potential early-season stratospheric warming event impacts North America. What that suggests is that November 20 +/- a few days might be a reasonable timeframe to begin to see effects from the stratospheric warming event, should it occur. For now, that's speculative. The El Niño will likely remain the dominant factor shaping North American patterns, so even a cooldown might not necessarily mean unseasonable cold. The ECMWF weekly forecast for November 23-30 shows this quite well. The true area of cool anomalies is smaller, while a large part of the southern half of the CONUS has near normal readings. Finally, for those who track teleconnections, NOAA is no longer updating daily EPO and WPO values.

I have a feeling this winter will feature plenty of cold air outbreaks that stay 2-4+ weeks in the future.

Exactly. I was standing outside at midnight just listening to nonstop branches snapping…it was a truly historic event. Out of school for a week. Crazy part…the official forecast was for rain starting about 11am, with rain throughout the day, maybe changing to some snow after sunset here…depending on when, and if the transition occurred, would determine any accumulation. Well, needless to say it never rained lol, started right out as snow. And surprisingly the wet cement snow-it stuck immediately. A foot of concrete as you said, on fully leaved trees was bad news. At 3” the trees were already screaming…and then it just got real ugly from there. But an afternoon of rain never materialized at all. Straight snow from the get go.

Yep snow then a year later sandy

It seems odd that smoke would have created the phenomenon, but it's tough to be sure.

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably mild day. Much of the region could approach or reach 70°. Unseasonable warmth will continue into the first week of November. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was +10.31 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.842 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.2° (1.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Still nothing going on around here so anyone have memories of this one: Power outages in my area of NNJ were brutal. Lasted about a week in most spots and it was COLD. https://x.com/Danbury_WX/status/2115785053150089670

Gonna be hard to get something wintery out of this