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  2. canderson
    I have tickets to a show at Merriweather (in Columbia) Tuesday. I’m kinda planning ahead on not driving the 90 miles S only to get soaking wet and deal with delay after delay. If anyone might be interested in Death Cab for Cutie tickets shoot me a message and we’ll see what transpires Tuesday (hopefully this gets punted into Wednesday am … )
  3. LakePaste25
    The CFS is starting to catch on to the idea of this event running its course (just like 97-98) with W pac cool anomalies showing up. This would be the first time in over a decade that we’ve seen this to a significant degree.
  4. snowman19
    Yes, this event is very east-based/EP just like 1997. In fact, 1997 is by far the best ENSO analog for this event
  5. canderson
    Had to map Elimsport - knew one for me!
  6. George001
    Yeah, this El Niño is developing like a stronger version of the 97-98 super Nino.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Recon is out there now and no surprise there is a well defined LLC. Should help with future modeling.
  8. bluewave
    Becoming more east based since June 15th with Nino 1+2 approaching +4 as these record WWBs keep coming.
  9. George001
    I’m not sure why you got roasted for that. Imo, the base assumption for 27-28 should be a fairly powerful La Niña until proven otherwise. We haven’t had a strong La Niña since the 10-11 winter, but I would not be surprised at all if that changes come fall 2027.
  10. Nibor
    I know the AQI isn’t perfect with some wildfire smoke in the air but it is beautiful out today.
  11. A-L-E-K
    Monday got some miss west/south stink
  12. snowman19
    Completely agree. IMO this is going to easily be the strongest super El Niño in history on the RONI and the traditional ONI for both peak and trimonthly average. I also think the August MEI goes above +2 and it would not surprise me at all if we tie or exceed the strongest MEI month on record sometime this fall or winter (*which I believe is +2.9 back during the 1982-83 super Niño*). I’m sure @GaWx has the actual MEI stats for that
  13. BombsAway1288
    Fleeting? What’s fleeting? My extended doesn’t get above 82 for the next 10 days minimum. Pretty nice for the climatologically hottest part of the year
  14. kdxken
    Yep! Another month or so.
  15. mappy
    I think we’ve had that convo before, how close our parents are And that makes sense. My sister’s house off Edwin Raynor, north of 100 and Mountain Road, had a lot more damage with down trees and such.
  16. Eskimo Joe
  17. kdxken
    It's perfect. Feels like September.
  18. Keith Central PA
    There we go ,couldnt agree more
  19. lee59
    A few days ago this system was predicted to go east across Florida and impact the southeast. Quite a change
  20. Elim72
    .82 in Elimsport yesterday. We missed all the weather violence.
  21. LakePaste25
    I don’t think anyone here is saying it’s not going to snow, or that there won’t necessarily be a big storm. But I think it’s an easy call that next winter will be both warmer and wetter than the previous 2 winters on the coastal plain. Here on the Great Lakes, probably warmer and drier.
  22. mitchnick
    By the way, why didn't you bother to post the Cfs2 temp forecast for the 23/24 winter. Since we're nearing the end of July, this is what it had from the 8/1/23-8/10/23 period. Pretty warm (and not very Niño canonical), isn't it?
  23. high risk
    I like what I see in the CAMs that go out to Tuesday evening (NAM Nest, HiResW FV3, RRFS). Multiple rounds of storms on a pre-frontal trough / wind shift, and possibly another line in the evening (although I suspect our environment will be worked over from the afternoon storms). Environmental parameters are solid. And for those looking to maximize rainfall, we could see an early round of storms late Monday night or early Tuesday morning as the warm front lifts to the northeast.
  24. jm1220
    No one’s expecting it to be a major hurricane. Maybe a high end TS known for dumping a ton of rain.
  25. high risk
    Getting enough low-level shear was always in doubt for this event, especially once the warm front quickly retreated to the northeast during the late morning hours. The mid-level wind speeds underperformed a bit, relative to guidance, but there should have been enough deep-layer shear for fairly widespread wind, given the magnitude of the instability. I think you're correct that the profile was overall too moist to achieve a high end wind event.
  26. Today
  27. TheDreamTraveler
    Oof that sucks. Hoping they get it back online today. Thankfully it's not brutally hot today
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