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29.3°, not one of the coldest but still chilly.

35 but 30 a few feet lower. The fakeness continues.

Also, what will never happen right there.

Temp down to 31F this am

As of the overnight 00z runs. EPS with 98% of it's members with reversals. GEFS with 68% so both holding fairly steady from 12z yesterday.

In a normal, non-chaotic climate zone I’d say may fits the bill 9 times out of 10..but ya never know what you’re gonna get in this misty, coastal zone of madness in what should normally be a beautiful month.

How to make all of Eastern Mass be pissed off: Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

It seems the disturbance NE of Arnab (90B) has quite the organization and IMHO is a minimal TS as it is about to make landfall as I type this. 3 microwave passes since 27/2000z clearly show a well-defined center w/ impressive curved banding (attached). Nascent CDO w/ cloud tops as cold as -87 C and a fairly quick NW motion would support minimal TS-force winds. Radar shows a well-defined system at landfall. Look a the amended 03z TWO update from JTWC. See below. "Dissipated?" I find that disingenuous and a lie. Yes, I know JTWC is not the RSMC and IMD takes care of it, but it just goes to show the issues outside NHC's AOR w/ "shorties" not counted still these days. And sometimes they are not just weaksystems these shorties! Either way, locally there would be sig impacts where 90B makes landfall. Is that not important? If this was NHC AOR, they would have declared it a TC, and I would agree 100%. It is what it is! ABIO10 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/280300Z-281800ZOCT2026// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280152ZOCT2026// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 28OCT26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ARNAB) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 81.6E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).// NNNN

Can we push that back about 48 hours for the GTA VI release?

Per Eric Webb: interesting I have a sneaking suspicion that the extreme eastward shift (& intensity) of this year's El Niño potentially has something to do w/ the unusually early stratospheric warming event that's being forecast. I also wonder if there's a theoretical point where we shift the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool so far east that we actually don't end up getting a massive torch in December in the SE US & we just haven't observed an El Niño event strong/eastward shifted enough to challenge this idea. Perhaps, the trough that's normally buried in the Desert SW in December of a "normal" strong-super Nino bleeds eastward into the SE US instead, mirroring the eastward shift in convection/stronger subtropical jet stream forced by the extreme eastward shift in the mean warm pool. There are certainly some significant unknowns/wild cards on the table w/ this winter despite the normally high predictive power that comes with strong El Niños.

If there's anything we should've learned in recent years, it's that we can't fight the PAC. If it's a disaster, our winter here in the lowlands is a disaster. My head is rarely ever into the preseason winter forecasting stuff, but if I were to hazard a guess I'd say December is a blowtorch, early January many will have canceled winter, and then we see a decent stretch mid to late January into at least half of Feb. We'll have plenty of storm chances with the juiced STJ, so we just need to time things right to produce something.

WE NEED A KELVIN WAVE/KING TIDE Super Thread somewhere! Those king tides are demolishing California's coastal communities!

This mornings ECMWF has the first hints of a bigger snowstorm for you guys.

Let’s go Brewers! Hoping they win their first WS tonight.