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Latest pass 953.7 so looks like it's probably topped out strength-wise, unsurprisingly.

The satellite imagery in motion sends a message. Isaias is coming our way. Many details remain but the general movement looks good.

I'm sure everyone will be relieved that the WB 3K NAM is now onboard and not quite done at the end of run.

The JMA last had a good Winter forecast in 2013.

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Deep-layer shear from the southwest has increased to 30-40 kt, and the hurricane's structure is responding accordingly. WSR-88D radar data shows that the structure is becoming increasingly asymmetric, with very intense convection mainly confined to the northern eyewall. Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 has also shown that the circulation is becoming tilted with height. That said, some impressive winds were measured at flight-level--136 kt by the Air Force Reserve at 10,000 feet and 126 kt by NOAA at 8,000 ft. While these winds themselves would normally support a higher intensity, several dropsondes released in the eyewall showed that there is a sharp drop-off of winds at the ocean surface, with layer-averaging suggesting a surface intensity of 90-95 kt. In addition, recent Doppler radar data from Mobile show winds of 100-110 kt at about 10,000 feet in the northern eyewall. Combining all this data together, the maximum surface winds appear to be around 100 kt, although it's very likely that Isaias will be a gustier-than-normal hurricane when it makes landfall. Isaias has turned northward and is accelerating with a current motion of 010/15 kt. The track guidance has honed in on a landfall over the western Florida Panhandle near the Pensacola area sometime this evening. A northward motion is expected to continue through Saturday, bringing Isaias's center through Alabama, followed by a northeastward trajectory across the Tennessee and the central Appalachians on Sunday. The circulation is expected to dissipate by hour 60. The high-resolution hurricane regional models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HWRF), as well as the statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS and LGEM) indicate that Isaias is likely to be at or near major hurricane strength at landfall this evening. After landfall, fast weakening is expected, with some caveats. As mentioned previously, Isaias is likely to be a gusty hurricane, and its fast motion could bring strong hurricane-force gusts well inland. Simulated satellite imagery from global model guidance indicates that Isaias is likely to transition to a post-tropical cyclone over Alabama by Saturday afternoon, although it could still be producing tropical-storm-force gusts, especially in areas of higher terrain. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents under evacuation orders should leave immediately and follow advice from local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia and the southern Appalachians, westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. 5. The tornado potential will continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 29.2N 87.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 31.2N 86.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 33.4N 87.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 11/0600Z 35.6N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 38.1N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Assuming it does not degrade that northern eye wall will mean business when it reaches the coast in the next 2 hours or so. Actual landfall should occur between 10 and 11 pm.

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WITHIN THE STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS... ...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SEEKING SAFE SHELTER... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 87.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...195 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Tropical Storm Warning issued to the US/MX border for Rachel... TS watch still remains at 5pm for S CA BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 124.0W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of Rachel.

Wow… .

Matt is a helluva writer...does baseball and weather.

Lets hope the latest Hi Res models are overdone

Thanks Steve! .

Afternoon AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a mention of possible gale conditions over the lower Chesapeake Bay on Sunday as a result of passing remnants of Hurricane Isaias. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy conditions Sunday into Sunday night. - 2) No hazardous weather expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy conditions Sunday into Sunday night. The pattern remains quiet through the first half of the weekend as surface high pressure strengthens over the northeastern U.S. However, this lengthy period of tranquil weather will come to an end as this ridge retreats northward ahead of Isaias. Until then, a thick area of high cirrus should continue to track poleward. Daily highs will be in the low/mid 70s, with 60s across mountain locations. The main weather impact to the region over the next week is going to be from the remnants of what is now Hurricane Isaias (Cat 3 strength). Model guidance is in generally good agreement that Hurricane Isaias` surface low weakens and broadens as the system moves into the TN Valley Saturday night into Sunday. The mid- level circulation amplifies and becomes a strong cutoff low over KY/TN that moves slowly east across the Mid- Atlantic Sunday into Monday. Periods of rain are likely across the area at times Saturday evening through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected across the area. Higher rain totals are certainly possible, but will depend on a few other smaller scale features. Tropical moisture surges north into our area Saturday night into Sunday, with the highest PWAT values at or above 2" (most likely east of the Blue Ridge). While the main cutoff low associated with the remnants of Isaias remain west of the Appalachians on Saturday, expect light rain to move in from south to north in the evening. Forcing for ascent increases Saturday night, and especially Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as mid-level heights fall with the approach of the cutoff low. There is going to be enhanced low-level convergence somewhere over the region as the surface high to the east and cutoff low to the west interact. Easterly flow into the Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced rain amounts due to orographic effects. Additionally, an inverted trough or wave of low pressure tries to develop in lee of the Appalachians Sunday as it crosses Virginia to the Delmarva. Uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution and timing of these features, which will ultimately determine where / if any locally heavy rain occurs. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days. No Flood Watches are planned at this time as we are still over 48 hours from the main slug of rain. Additionally, there is a non-zero risk of isolated tornadoes on Sunday. These post-tropical environments can be tricky as low- level spin ups do occur. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Day 3 Marginal Risk area. It is going to be noticeably breezy, especially in the mountains where winds begin to pick up Saturday evening. The strongest winds are most likely on Sunday. The current forecast for peak wind gusts is 30-40 mph in the Alleghenies and 20-30 mph elsewhere. Conditions dry out Monday morning into Monday afternoon as the remnants of Isaias push offshore. Looking at mostly mild temperatures for most of next week. A series of cold fronts cross the region during the middle to late part of next week as the synoptic pattern becomes more active. Aside from mountain rain showers, most of the area looks to remain dry. The strongest cold front arrives late next week, possibly bringing rain and colder air behind it.

Even as far removed from the hurricane. The FL peninsula is prone to quick spin-ups as the feeder band traverses inland areas.

Thanks a nice bit of rain. Nothing too crazy.

Stay safe down there Don. We're thinking about you from WNC.

Not that it is going to make a huge difference but you can clearly see the western edges of the circulation starting to "flatten" as shear is now starting to take hold.

There's not enough time for substantial weakening.

GSP put out a nicely done informative discussion late this afternoon to their credit. It offered a lot of details regarding their reasoning and is worth the read.