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Do you think BAM will have more luck with the last week of Jan than they had with Dec 31-Jan 15? How did BAM do for 12/31-1/15? Here was their forecast map that was reposted in late Dec: So, they had most of the E US 1-4 BN. What verified? -The SE was 4-7 AN vs their forecast of 1-2 BN (~7 too cold). -DC-NYC was +3 vs their fcast of -2. So, 5 too cold. -Midwest was +5 to +8 vs their 0 to -4. So, 8 too cold. -DFW/Den was +10/+11 vs their +3. So, 7 too cold. -Even Great Falls, that they had +8, was actually +17. So, 9 too cold. -They had Phoenix 3 too cold -They were closest for SF/LV, which they had at +2. They actually were +2/+3.

Jimmy special

Ya 0”

Disagree. I couldn't care less if we're above normal when its 1" here and 1" there. That doesn't equate to a good winter. We have had 1 decent snowfall of 5" in November, aside that its been mostly garbage. Do you need further proof than the fact I was the first post here since December 3rd? Lol

The GFS has snow over the east half of the forum area mainly. From just East of Nashville and East with 4-6 inches, with a major shift into the deep south and eastern NC (not a surprise) for very heavy snow. 8 inches in Florida, 12 in southern Georgia, 16 inches in SC, 2 feet in NC. Now as the GFS has been pretty bad this year, I doubt that occurs. The ICON has an event with the mid-state being in the bullseye, and it's only 5 or so days away. The Canadian has a much lesser event in the same time frame. But it was actually an increase vs 12z. The second big hitter on the 12z Canadian ghosted us and became a strung out light rain event south of us. The EURO Ai is similar to the Canadian with event 1 with around an inch in spots, it's cold and brings a monster slider across around D10. The EURO Op is Dr No for both snow events basically. The nice event it showed at 12z is a strung out mess and a half here at 0z.

Snowshoe is getting demolished, yet again! https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam

0z GFS with a massive Carolina Crusher around the 29th

03z RAP gone wild with a norlun look and warning snows for much of the area.

It’s not over but if things play out like tonight’s guidance I think it’s a B to B+ for the AIs, C for the rest. But alas-verification has to await ground truth.

Man, this thread is so wonderful to read. I’m not around as much in this region as life has taken me further north, but this subforum will always be home to me.

30 at 8:05p. Now it's 38 in front of the precipitation at 1a. Don't think that's gonna get it done.

Has the models so far tonight changed to not showing any winter storms?

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The models that showed this just drying up imby are spot on. Their thermals were off, but the dryness was perfect. It's barely sprinkled here so far. Temp has fallen to 38.

Euro increased measurable snow from Newberry to Greenville SC. .5 to .8 amounts. Nothing major but better last three runs. 1 inch line approaching Augusta GA/SC line. Hopefully a few ticks like this more can occur.

HRRR at 24 hours is like the NAM at 84. Latest runs look more realistic. Unfortunately

0z EC AIFS actually small tick NW compared to 18z, but did not regain the big hit that was 12z... still advisory most of SNE, warning southeast of Plymouth 0z EC also small tick NW... but mostly nuisance low-end advisory outside of Cape

Really emphasizes that when things get warm they shatter records and the opposite side is only average to modestly BN at best.

Started snowing here at 12. Dusting on Vehicle and patches on lawn. Temperature is 37 . Dp 19.

???

I remember growing up in New Jersey that the "cold/dry alternating with just warm enough to rain/wet" pattern was the absolute worst, but I'm surprised how often its happened here this winter (and a bit of last winter too). 40-50 degree rain isn't unexpected but the fact that we've had a lot of cold weather - just not synced up with storms - is really frustrating

We need to get something under 84 or we are going to kill each other lol

That was pretty good. How did you come up with that gem? And who are you?

Hrrr down to 1-1.5” getting lower each run. Ready to wake up to nothing lol