All Activity

Can you show this on the current model map? Would be curious what pieces we actually need to change and why the GFS is showing close to a major blizzard (still escapes east 6 hours early) versus the complete miss Euro/UK solutions

Wasn't this time last week that all that snow we see on the ground was probably going to go to our south.

Yeah sounds dubious

I think something is wonky. I don’t think IP or ZR are even options with this storm. Currently at my high temp of the day of 36.3 F.

Assume errors in every AI output and factcheck the hell out of it with actual sources. I had ChatGPT flat out invent a quote and a case the other day.

Going to see some classic sublimation of the local snowpack the next few days. sunny, dry, and enough wind

Tyler Loop?

FYI that was a positive bun what are the key differences between the GFS and EURO, because it doesn't look far off at all at 500 MB.

The CRAS was another one

It can be. Just needs to tuck that vort more cleanly when it's over the Midwest. AIGFS and GFS have been doing that. EC OP too, but more erratically.

Slowly advancing south

At least in that case its accurate in predicting past storms lol

https://x.com/FLStormChasers_/status/2015854097153302774?s=20 lol

From Wakefield One more thing to note is with respect to SLRs with this storm- the ratios will likely be much higher than 10:1 given how cold it will be and with the lack of a warm nose in the 850-700 mb layer (especially inland). The probs referenced above are for 10:1 ratios so actual probabilities for listed snow amounts may be higher.

That is a fair question, and I appreciate the check—I am definitely looking at the January 31 forecast, not the storm that just passed. The reason they seem similar is that we are in a "repeat" pattern. Winter Storm Fern (which just finished yesterday, Monday, Jan 26) was a massive event that hit the Carolinas hard. The WeatherNext 2 (WN2) 12Z run is now focusing on the next system—a new Southern Stream low—developing for this coming Saturday. Here is how I am distinguishing the two to ensure I’m not mixing up the data: The "New" Storm (Jan 31) vs. Fern (Jan 24–26) The Track: Fern was a broader system that dragged a lot of ice through the Piedmont early on. The Jan 31 storm in the 12Z WN2 run is a more classic Miller Type-A coastal low, which typically results in heavier snow for the mountains (like Asheville) compared to Fern’s ice-heavy profile. Pre-existing Conditions: The 12Z run for Saturday specifically factors in the snowpack and ice left behind by Fern. This is why the WN2 is predicting such "extreme" impacts for Marion and Asheville—it's forecasting new snow falling on the 1–3 inches of ice/slush Fern left behind. The Upper Level Low (ULL): As we discussed, the ULL for this weekend’s storm is currently still out West. Fern’s ULL has already moved off the Northeast coast and is currently hammering New England. Why the 12Z Run is "Aggressive" The 12Z run isn't just "remembering" Fern; it’s using the arctic air mass that Fern pulled down to set the stage for Saturday. Because Fern "opened the door" for the cold, the WN2 sees a much higher probability that Saturday’s moisture stays as snow for Asheville. Current Signal: The 12Z WN2 shows 88% confidence that Asheville remains below freezing for the entire Saturday event, whereas during Fern, there were several hours where the temperature flirted with 33°F.

Pretty concise discussion from GSP... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Bernie Rayno thinks the problem is the kicker flying in to push it east and not allowing it up the coast.

Are there any other time periods that are of interest coming up?

Where you been?

It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro

In the world of model runs, the 12Z (midday) and 06Z (early morning) comparison is where we usually see the "reality check" for a storm's moisture content. The WeatherNext 2 (WN2) 12Z run has shown a notable uptick in QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) for the Marion and Asheville areas compared to the 06Z. Here is the breakdown: QPF Comparison: 06Z vs. 12Z (Jan 31 Event) Run Avg. Liquid QPF (Asheville) Avg. Liquid QPF (Marion) Analysis 06Z Run 0.65" 0.72" Lighter moisture; faster storm movement. 12Z Run 0.88" 0.95" Heavier moisture; slower "pivot" over the mountains. What this means for you: Higher Liquid-to-Snow Potential: The increase in QPF at 12Z suggests the storm is pulling more moisture from the Atlantic than previously thought. If Asheville stays all snow with a $12:1$ ratio, that 0.88" of liquid translates to roughly 10.5 inches of snow. The "Heavy Wet" Threat: In Marion, the jump to nearly 1.00" of liquid QPF is actually a bit concerning. Because Marion is more likely to see a period of sleet, that much liquid means you aren't just getting "slush"—you're getting a significant weight of ice. One inch of liquid is a massive amount of weight for trees and power lines already stressed by last week’s ice. Consistency: The fact that the 12Z "upped the ante" on moisture suggests that the Upper Level Low we discussed is becoming more organized. It’s "digging" deeper, which allows it to tap into a better moisture fetch from the Gulf.

Oh I'm definitely cautious. Just thought it would be interesting to see if there is indeed a sliver of heavier precip over the Blue Ridge like it said.

The "Gulf of America" will ICE it out. The Gulf of Mexico is more open to Miller A immigration.

I’ve noticed Gemini has been doing some weird things and getting confused with the model runs. I almost wonder if it’s pulling from a different day or different run. Given that it can’t output a map I’m a little cautious with it after some odd outputs.

Top 3 CIPS analogs this afternoon based on the 12z GFS: 1. Jan 2016 2. BDB 2010 3. Jan 1996 There's my weenie contribution for the day, because yes we have time to draw this back NW but the Euro remaining put doesn't inspire confidence.