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Incorrect

Thanks, Chris To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least ~0.5C since ‘82? This is also the case for OHC comparisons.

The latest MJO plots don't really look like this is happening. Some of the GEFS members are actually taking into the maritime continent now.

Ha! Just posted where/whence the is in the cards

Just been a tedious stretch. Need to reshuffle the deck. Does look promising for sustained warmer anomalies by mid month.

Feels like a late October day out. Im loving this weather!

Thanks for the kind words.

Improving odds for a hemispheric switch to a warm signal for mid month. Which isn't saying a lot at still 13 days away, but improving nonetheless. Emerging collapse in the PNA coming from all extended guidance for that index. Meanwhile, the the AO is pulled back (finally). And, if it helps...the climate composite on the MJO wave space in 8 for May is actually a modest over the top warming signal.. Indeed, the MJO is forecast to re-emerge on the left side of the RMM with perhaps nearly the same momentum as this most recent propagation. It's not hurting a warmer cause So we'll see... if you're a warm enthusiasts, it's a light at a the end of a tunnel for deeper more foundational looking warm pattern. In the meantime, Tuesday may approach 80...HA! So, it's not like we can't get by in the meantime. I just wish we'd time one of these warm bursts on the weekend. Weird look in total, really. Stationary front from IND-BTV like that is odd at this time of year. So we get late winter on the W side and early summer on the E for a couple of days... massive gradient The other aspect to consider is that the index correlation to pattern orientation is different in May than January. So have to consider two aspects, seasonal wave space changes. Also that there's a season -D(x) component where that is in the process of changing weaker. That's the seasonality signal. Putting all this together ... mm I'd say between modest and moderate signal for a warmer pattern change, mid month.

Coastalwx?

My experience of many years in the foothills - early May storms excite me. But that is a foothills perspective and setups like this in May usually have a steep accumulation gradient. All or nothing usually within 10 miles.

coastal

May 2 2013: A historic snowstorm dumps up to 18 inches of snow in southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Blooming Prairie receives 18 inches from this storm, and Eau Claire gets 9.3 inches. For Saturday, May 2, 2026 1899 - A storm buried Havre, MT, under 24.8 inches of snow, an all-time record for that location. The water equivalent of 2.48 inches was a record 24 hour total for the month of May. (The Weather Channel) 1920 - A swarm of tornadoes in Rogers, Mayes and Cherokee Counties in Oklahoma killed 64 persons. (David Ludlum) 1929 - Virginia's worst tornado disaster occurred. Six tornadoes, two of which were west of the Blue Mountains, killed 22 people. Twelve children and a teacher were killed at Rye Cove, in Scott County. Four schools were destroyed by the storms. (The Weather Channel) 1983 - Severe thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes across Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York State. The tornadoes caused five deaths. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced golf ball size hail in northern Louisiana, and wind gusts to 77 mph at Lake Providence LA. Thunderstorms in Arkansas produced 4.20 inches of rain at Arkadelphia and 4.00 inches at Bismarck. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A powerful storm produced snow and high winds in the Central Rockies and the Central High Plains Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 12 inches at Strasburg, and winds in southeastern Colorado gusted to 87 mph at Lamar. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in eastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing to the north of a warm front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas. There were 93 reports of severe weather. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Beattie, and baseball size hail was reported at Ranger and Breckenridge. Juneau AK reported a record high temperature of 72 degrees while Honolulu equaled their record low for the month of May with a reading of 60 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Fourteen cities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 90s. Tampa FL reported a record high of 97 degrees, and Fort Stewart GA was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 100 degrees. 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northeastern Texas to western Arkansas during the evening and early nighttime hours. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado which injured thirteen persons at Paris TX, and produced baseball size hail at Rio Vista TX. Thunderstorm rains of four to seven inches caused flash flooding in west central Arkansas, southern and eastern Oklahoma, and northern Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Finished with .1" of rain overnight.

A nice cold morning so far with a current temp of 46 degrees

Chilly morning with temps in the upper 10's/20's. Yesterday was a cool one in the lower 40's. Warmer today in the 50's/60's. Only for the weekend as temps head back into the 40's for next week.

Who looks at the gfs?

Zero coastals on the 6z gfs

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (2001) NYC: 90 (2018) LGA: 90 (2018) JFK: 83 (2018) Lows: EWR: 35 (1943) NYC: 37 (1903) LGA: 40 (1978) JFK: 39 (1964) Historical: 1899 - A storm buried Havre, MT, under 24.8 inches of snow, an all-time record for that location. The water equivalent of 2.48 inches was a record 24 hour total for the month of May. (The Weather Channel) 1920 - A swarm of tornadoes in Rogers, Mayes and Cherokee Counties in Oklahoma killed 64 persons. (David Ludlum) 1929 - Virginia's worst tornado disaster occurred. Six tornadoes, two of which were west of the Blue Mountains, killed 22 people. Twelve children and a teacher were killed at Rye Cove, in Scott County. Four schools were destroyed by the storms. (The Weather Channel) 1935:Minneapolis, Minnesota on the 1st and 2nd: Snow, ice and sleet blanket parts of southeast Minnesota. Minneapolis receives 3 inches of snow. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1939: A trace of snow fell on this date in Raleigh, NC, their latest snow on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1945: The record low temperature for the date at Washington, DC. is 35°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1954: A major late season snowstorm struck the Arrowhead of Minnesota, leaving 18 inches of new snow at Virginia, Minnesota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1963: Record chill hit parts of North Carolina. Charlotte dropped to 32° and Greensboro & Raleigh fell to 29°; all records for May. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1968: An extreme example of diurnal temperature fluctuation was reported at Juniper Lake in Oregon when the temperature purportedly rose from a morning low of zero to an afternoon high of 81°F. (Ref. Extreme Weather p. 47, by Christopher C. Burt) 1983: Severe thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes across Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York State. The tornadoes caused five deaths. (Ref. The Weather Channel) 1983 - Severe thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes across Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York State. The tornadoes caused five deaths. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced golf ball size hail in northern Louisiana, and wind gusts to 77 mph at Lake Providence LA. Thunderstorms in Arkansas produced 4.20 inches of rain at Arkadelphia and 4.00 inches at Bismarck. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A powerful storm produced snow and high winds in the Central Rockies and the Central High Plains Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 12 inches at Strasburg, and winds in southeastern Colorado gusted to 87 mph at Lamar. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in eastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing to the north of a warm front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas. There were 93 reports of severe weather. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Beattie, and baseball size hail was reported at Ranger and Breckenridge. Juneau AK reported a record high temperature of 72 degrees while Honolulu equalled their record low for the month of May with a reading of 60 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Fourteen cities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 90s. Tampa FL reported a record high of 97 degrees, and Fort Stewart GA was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 100 degrees. 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northeastern Texas to western Arkansas during the evening and early nighttime hours. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado which injured thirteen persons at Paris TX, and produced baseball size hail at Rio Vista TX. Thunderstorm rains of four to seven inches caused flash flooding in west central Arkansas, southern and eastern Oklahoma, and northern Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1999: A chilly start to May for the Sunshine State as more record lows fell by the wayside across Central and South Florida. Tampa dropped to 52°, St. Petersburg-Clearwater fell to 56°. Both these readings were all-time record lows for May. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: A Roanoke, VA woman was injured by lightning while talking on the phone. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 2005: Late season snow blanketed the Texas Panhandle. Amarillo recorded 4.7 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

61/41 mostly cloudy. Rain staying offshore. clouds today / clearing sunday and a 3-4 day moderation / warmup peaking on Tuesday with 80s in the warmest spots. Trough is back into the east with ride WC/P NW by later i the week 5/6 - 5/10 with next shot at rain Thu / Fri and >.50 possible. Overall near or below normal riding in that period beyond Tuesday to mid month.

Our variance is certainly very high.... Always makes the winter forecast a nail biter if you like snow lol

Hopefully they are properly hedged and insured. However, I'm sure those costs are through the roof Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Not enough cold, especially recently, but we will get the STJ and moisture. 'Perfect track rainstorms'. Need a -AO or -EPO to bring colder air southward. Recent Ninas have been cold mainly due to a favorable configuration(poleward) of the Aleutian ridge.

Man that is rough. Special prayers for her and you.

As a parent, your loving positive energy will ensure the best outcome. As always …..

and it has actually pushed a little more west to keep us in it.