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1/22/05, is that the storm JMA nailed all by itself? 25+ for NYC?

The radar is going to be fascinating to watch tomorrow night

On my PWS we still haven’t made it to single digits this week, but kinda expected that being right by the open Bay. Still very impressed with a 6 day average barely being above 20. .

Really loving the trends for us

The NBM use in this situation is a joke. What is wrong with Mt Holly. Totally innaccurate because 2 or 3 ensembles warp the whole average

Last RGEM was good too. With media those are the two you want in your corner vs NAM suite. Definitely would like to see them converge but those are what we want other short range guidance to trend towards today

I’ll never forget that storm last winter, not only because of how insane it was to watch it snow nonstop for 12 hours and Richmond somehow only picked up like an inch while Norfolk had a blizzard warning, but also how DT was practically cussing out the whole 757 that day. [emoji28] .

At one of my old houses, I had 7 days in a row with -20 twice. 1994.

Weenie question but i think relevant: when is this coastal low supposed to start forming? I hear the experts saying we'll have more reliable data once it starts forming.

Thats been my thinking.. if we get that out of the way or weaker it might work

Frankly I don't have enough knowledge with respect to this. I am just babbling stuff I half-understand, lol.

I think what they mean is that this is another very complicated set up. The ice storm last week had very complicated thermals. This one is a storm transfer over the area with questions of where this closes off. These scenarios tend to create rather hyper local outcomes due to where the moisture sets up and this can lead to significant subsidence in places depending on where banding sets up as well. It takes time for precip to blossom as well when storms are developing. This is where some persons were saying that smoothing of the mean creates qpf forecasts that appear uniform over an area but really aren't. So all of this together, it's another tough forecast leading to last minute trends and observations ruling the day.

2-4" would put us at or over climo. So, not going to pout but still want to break through that 6" ceiling.

I'm getting snow jam 2014 vibes. Very cold temps, very high ratio snow, there is the potential for very high impacts to roadways even with light amounts.

Hmm, looks like @stormtracker has picked up a new (or maybe just unknown to the masses) name, persons of power!!

SMOKED!

Well if it nails this I’m starting a petition to revive it [emoji23]

I haven't gone below yet, life on the coast, when I drove inland for work, I ran into negatives.

I could see a surprise 4 to 6 over Cape may. Wouldn't take much of a jog

Kind of what we’ve been mentioning. It’s a winter hurricane so it’s going to do that . Just depends how close it can pass

FV3 is an absolute thing of beauty and would put all the worry bears to bed.

It’s too bad he didn’t get the head coaching job. He could staff all the coordinators with his own family

-15 at 7 AM, haven't checked the max-min yet. 6th straight minima below zero, will probably make 9 before next week's mild-up. Longest runs of subzero minima are 14 in January 2003 and 12 that February - a cold but dry (and BN snow) winter.

It’s supposed to be decommissioned this year so you may not have to either way lol .

If other guidance eventually matches the NAM and we get one more small tick closer, this would be a fun nowcast on Sunday for coastal regions. I'm doubtful we even get that close given the persistence of unsupportive modeling outside recent ECM runs. But it's still a low level chance IMO.