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We know why cyclical warming of the earth.

After years of waffling I'm finally going to go up and see some November snow in Canaan Monday/Tuesday. Borrowing the sisters Bronco and doing some boozing/hiking with my Fiancé around the valley. Additionally, I got a season pass to Timberline for the first time so will be good to practice the drive once before go-time.

it's likely wrong... I mean for one, that model's not going to resolve idiosyncratic in situ synoptic elements, because the climatology normalizing aspect ends up muting those specific signals. case in point, at 48 to 72 hours there's a lead s/w in Indian/southern Lakes, that skirts out ahead of the main trough, priory to it going through that amplitude out there are 84-96 ... that little piece of shit is a ruiner. it is in destructive interference with what probably could have been a CFS type solution. the CFS doesn't even have that lead wave. the other guidance all have a second wave forming on the b-c axis down around eastern VA, but they fail to really get it's act together soon enough ... the ensemble of the EPS bombs that that thing in the GOM... If it were not for the lead pos mentioned above, than the event emphasis would probably be the feature. it's not impossible that thing modulate in that direction but it would be pretty rare at this range for the the other more dependable guidance types. i was just bringing it up more tongue-in-cheek. but yeah, it's nice eye candy. ha.

Low of 26.3° here at WXW1

The low temps are just incredible. Even on days that are somewhat warm. 70/23 on the 5th and 68/22 on the 29th.

We'll hope 24-25 isn't repeated - early peak followed by meh. On 12/5/24 we had 15" OG, the most for that date in our 27 winters. We finished with well below snowfall and well below SDDs. That's what happens when the winter's 2 biggest snowstorms occur on 11/28-29 and 12/4-5.

Anywhere from .1 to .5 of rain tonight

NAM/Euro/GFS are looking good for rain tonight (0.25"+) but the HRRR hates it. Interesting battle.

If you only knew

Haven’t gotten above the long term average sub-32 hours at CON in October in like a decade, but we just don’t know why. It could change next year.

Man moderators have their work cut out for them.

Down to 31.3 here last night. First freeze!

LFG

Yeah, because of the variability of this time of year it's both noteworthy and not, ha. It's a time when single storms can jack up the stake depth and then warmth can melt it rapidly... but still interesting that how we feel like it shouldn't be rare, it's still a higher depth than 67 other seasons on the date. But it's funny because in like 3 days it could be nothing to write home; it can change fast this time of year in either direction. Luckily it looks like we should hold it for now.

Here are the progs for Nov 11th lows from the latest ICON/CMC/Euro/GFS/UKMET1. GA-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/322. SC-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29-CAE: 28/32/33/32/343. NC-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35—————————Average for each model for the 6 cities:ICON: 26.3CMC: 28.5Euro: 31.3GFS: 31.3UKMET: 32.6Any guesses for:1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?———————My guesses: 1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie) 2. Worst: ICON

Do you have any thoughts regarding the last 4 runs of the CFS for next week?

That would be great!

30.0⁰ low here this morning. AoB 32⁰ for 4 hours. That's usually not enough to kill much, but I haven't checked the garden yet.

We will see how things look as the weeks tick off. Fast start for us near the coast is always hard to pull off.

So if this Climate tainted version of the GFS model known as the CFS is going to be right ... one would think these 12z runs are going to have to at least start to represent. It's only 84 f'um hours away. There's a bit of an implication there in the 'climate' part - where in the past, this kind of trough/synoptic evolution ended up producing an NJ model quick deepener/ with cold rain over to snows scenario. Why else is this model keep insisting this set up like below. It isn't the first run (0z) that was selling this. But of course we know now that CC's proooobably ruined that from ever happening going forward . It's okay - because CC doesn't exist anyway, right

Woke up around 4:00 a.m. with one eye open and checked the temp. 28F as well. It may have dropped a degree or two after that, I don't know....

Yep More people are bullish on a fast start to winter than last winter.