All Activity

I have missed out on most of the real downpours so far this month. Only 2.03" MTD, which isn't horrible, by any means, but it's not making any progress into the deficit. Hopefully my time will come.

Odd pattern to the cell movement on the RAH radar at the moment. Some cells moving east, some moving west, some mostly stationary.

Someone turn off the hose. This morning has been insane.

Last winter as in this past winter?? This past winter was great.

As of the 13th I am running a + number on rainfall for the month, 2.31" vs a normal of 1.70, +.61". Decided to see what the past year ran and if a + halfway thru the month made a difference, so going backwards a year- June 2026 3.16" vs normal 4.20", -1.04" 15th 1.61" vs normal 2.10", -0.49" May 2026 3.90" vs normal 4.30", -0.40" 15th 1.42" vs normal 2.15", -0.73" April 2026 2.07" vs normal 3.64", -1.57" 15th 0.87" vs normal 1.80", -0.93" Mar 2026 2.12" vs normal 3.52", -1.40" 15th 0.83" vs normal 1.75", -0.92" Feb 2026 2.76" vs normal 2.67", +0.09" 15th 0.19" vs normal 1,35", -1.16" Jan 2026 2.84" vs normal 2.94", -0.10" 15th 0.92" vs normal 1.45", -0.53" Dec 2025 3.21" vs normal 3.32", -0.01" 15th 1.73" vs normal 1.60", +0.13" Nov 2025 1.34" vs normal 2.78", -1.44" 15th 0.25" vs normal 1.40", -1.15" Oct 2025 2.19" vs normal 2.70", -0.51" 15th 0.86" vs normal 1.30", -0.44" Sept 2025 2.28" vs normal 3.55", -1.27" 15th 0.11" vs normal 1.70", -1.59" Aug 2025 2.04" vs normal 3.32", -1.28" 15th 0.83" vs normal 1.60". -0.77" July 2025 4.19" vs normal 4.01", +0.18" 15th 2.74" vs normal 2.00", +0.74" That is a -8.75" for the 12 months, and a -7.84" at the mid-point of the month. Appears if you're in the hole by mid-month you don't recover? Feb 2026 stands out as an outlier to that. Also, it has been a year since I've been on the positive side this high mid-month.

Not the first time Upton has busted on the cloud cover forecast - happens quite often.....

Sunday I was down to 60. This morning I was a little surprised it only made to 64. Weather and temperatures have been all over the place.

And for the uninitiated

Yup, this is what I'm thinking Wiz is doing right now re chasing

What sticks out for me relates to a broader topic... That's a pretty classic tripolar anomaly distribution, which is correlated well with -NAO Now, at a 50, 000 foot linear correlation the -NAO is typically found during EC cane threats. The reason can actually be summed up in one sentence: -NAO means blocking at higher latitudes, which is all but required and prevents a Bahama routed cane from turning NE early. Up they come... But there's a caveat emptor: ...the NAO is not persistent at seasonal scales. So, merely noting the tripole mode isn't enough. However, its presence means there's a propensity for waxing and waning of the negative mode. If one is a cane/denudation of LI enthusiast ... replete with all the sociopathic wanton of calamity ... ( LOL ), that is good news. Yay. you at least have increased potential death and loss of property because the hemisphere is in a favorable super synoptic implication.

Storms moving weird again today. Generally E-W in the Central Valley whilst storms along the southern valley are moving S-N. Very cool to watch on radar. .

Pretty awful short term forecast model bust today…have seen the sun for maybe 10 mins.

We’re probably heading to a new warmest OHC of this Nino per this (often the far right portion of these graphs is later revised due to interpolation…so it isn’t certain yet):

NAM tries to leak some moisture in to the area up under the ridge late week setting off some garden variety, something to watch as we torch under full sun for most the week

Great time lapse Basile!

Sept 1821 redux for the north? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_1821_New_England_tornado_outbreak

And then the ground truth is a dusting

Agreed.

Monday morning low IMBY/Columbia 65° (compared to BWI 63°)

Thanks, Adam. It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.

I like seeing the GDM (Google Deep Mind) ensembles increasingly bullish on some type of development. I'm intrigued. 3/10 for now.

I would happily sacrifice and have a generally mild winter if we could just time one huge storm with a cold enough airmass. We are going on 11 years since the last legitimate snowstorm(around Baltimore at least.) I don’t know about anyone else, but despite the storm that ended up becoming a sleet bomb last winter, the first few hours it was the only time since January 2016 that it felt and looked like a real snowstorm. Been chasing that feeling for 10 years. Sucks that it couldn’t stay pure snow, but it reminded me of how that feels. I love the cold weather as much as anyone, but we need to take our chances with above average precipitation. I know “We’re due” isn’t scientific, but at some point 11 years into it…

Mostly misses down here. My 3 day total sits at 0.71", but it came in 4-5 different brief showers. Good for the grass, not so great for ponds and streams which are all VERY low. Looks like coverage will be better down here today and tomorrow.

I have no doubt that if we saw a repeat of 1938 in terms of track and intensity, people would take it seriously. Keep in mind, to get a major here you probably need it to be a high end 3 or more likely, Cat 4 off the NC coast (as 1938 was) and that alone would have people in a panic. It'd be the most hyped storm in history, with good reason. A bona fide major would be catastrophic depending on the track, even absent C3 sustained winds inland (which would be unlikely unless this is rocketing). Now that said, on this board? I already know how the run up would be. The first time the Euro kicks it at 144 with an over-zealous trough "she gone" would be the most popular phrase on the board. Followed by days and days of downplaying. Then complaining over the final track, which will shift 50 miles in the last 12 hours. Haven't seen a C5 yet, but I've seen a couple 4s, it's incredible. In Helene, I regret not doing a U-Turn on the highway to get a photo but I saw a massive pine snapped at the base well inland. In Laura, the damage was staggering. Fiona--it wasn't officially a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia but I was one of the first on the ground after it passed and produced that 97kt gust in Arisaig. The damage was incredible all the way back to New Brunswick. But folks should know that even lower end tropical can and will do big time damage. The October Cape Cod crusher a few years ago (eventually Wanda) did C1 damage through the region and it was big time. I'm not as bearish as I was a few weeks ago. Subtropics aren't as bad thermodynamically as they could be. But the wind shear and dry air with more frequent troughs later in the season will be an issue. The window is narrow, but probably the place where we're most likely to see activity. Doubt anything meaningful comes out of the MDR this year.