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58 the high here today.

Absolutely gorgeous autumn day here today. Blue skies, colors have exploded this past week, and a crisp chill is in the air. I dont mind in the least that Im in that bright red on the map...because I know it wont last.

Warm and dry similar to this month's pattern

After the early start to the color season in late Aug/early Sept then a complete stall, along with lots of drying leaves, I was worried the color show would suck. But as always, it has exploded this week and should have a nice few weeks ahead before the winter sticks set in.

Some thoughts: - Extreme swings this winter. Moreso than usual. I think a cold tap will exist in the Hudson Bay, which fits the enso and overall long range pattern. With that being said, I think the SER will have its moments of rage as well. Last year had quite a bit of temperature stability for most in the eastern conus, but I think we see a lot of days that get into the 60s, followed by 2-3 days in the 30s/40s in quick succession. - I.e. Blocking over the Atlantic doesn’t appear to be favored, so that’s why I think my last sentence will be true. - As always, this will be a critical matchmaking process with moisture and cold. Last year, we were spoiled with a favorable upper level pattern quite a bit, which made the matchmaking odds better, but some still weren’t able to cash in.

What was the preceding fall season like? AN temps w/ some periodic rain chances?

There are so many contradicting forecasts going on this year. Of course, I would like the one that shows us getting a better winter this year, but there are some that show below average. Was very confusing. Is that these forecasts are by meteorologists and some of them are calling for dryer and less snow for the Northeast and some are calling for above normal for the Northeast. Just like every year ( in regards to the last 5 to 7 at least ), it feels like a crap shoot.

NOAA Winter Outlook: Warm and dry.

540 Thickness all the way up near Hudson Bay

Very cold with a few snow events in January and a big one just before Valentines Day for most of the forum. January was fairly dry here with less than half the normal precip but we had snow falling on 12 different days in January with two accumulating events. 2-4 inches late month was the biggest with around 1 to 2 inches early month. Had two bouts of subzero cold in early and late January, teens for highs a few days.

I do that sometimes but it seems more difficult to do with 10+ posts.

My mind was on streaks sorry lol Mattingly had a big HR streak in 1987. I was wondering what Jordan's streak was....

If you couldnt figure out i meant 23 you need more help than i thought

Strangely the GFS has a second storm forming in the central Caribbean, so the GFS and Euro end up with a similar look at 348 hrs. Edit: The first storm on the GFS bombs out over PR in like 40kts of shear. Maybe it has a valid reason for doing this, but its a tough solution to believe at this point.

Yeah I’m not surprised there’s some light flakeage up there. I’m just saying radar images with ptype algorithms based on surface temps don’t prove anything.

ask and you shall receive https://soundcloud.com/itsbri-369369283/sickbragbro

Why? I thought that was what we all lived for.

Hit the + next to quote you can multiquote in one post

The ECM AI models give my area .30" - .40" 4 - 8 Sunday evening. The ECM deterministic is way over-hyped according to the WPC at .90".

Euro is much more interesting Sunday/Monday for rain and some windy showers. Pretty consistent about a bit more than just a quick passing front with some showers. Hope it is correct.

That must be it, I guess it pulled arctic air down out of Russia and cooled the surface temps on the Russian coast.

A 5F temp drop followed by a change in the winds from SW to W? I'm tracking it...stay vigilant.

Mentioned it earlier, but I’ve noticed a common denominator among all the -NAO’s during the winter that kept “linking up” with the SE ridge/WAR….a New Foundland warm pool

During a chronologically challenged AM you do make a welcome night light. Stay well Liberty. As always ….