All Activity

The overall look isn't terrible, in fact, it's probably better to see than these "great looking patterns" that haven't seemed to materialize the last few winters. There will be multiple storm chances over the next 2-3 weeks, probably on the order of one system every 6-9 days.

Frankly not really. I think the observations I elucidated/illustrated this morning are going to be more useful in setting expectations than the previous to be honest. There's a whip transition toward a -EPO occurring - rather unexpectedly, really. The previous model suggested a move from the last several weeks of N. Pac, toward a +PNA of sorts. The former is breaking down over the next week. Ooo rah! the wicked witch is dead. Or at least in hiatus. Anyway, latest appears that we're more likely to relay into a -EPO. Firstly, it's not clear or very high confidence how that will influence the pattern down stream over N/A, but ...whatever that is, it is not likely to be the same as a +PNA. Not right away anyway. Given some time, there is a lag correlation where -EPOs tend to neutralize, and the positive mode of the PNA subsequently occurs. Maybe that times out there mid month? who knows. So the 12z Euro is really coming into line with all this. We had been tentatively monitoring an event of sorts on the 6th ...followed perhaps by a more important one 8-9-10ish. At this point in the Euro it's getting difficult to even identify those wave spaces it's changing things so hard. We actually have a resurgence of SE ridging on this... Which ... the initial stages of a -EPO does in fact teleconnect to hgt falls through the Rockies, which then wave spacing arguments then correlates the SE ridge response. That's really what we're seeing. And as that occur, that ridge has become or is becoming in negative interference with those systems we had been keeping an eye on. -EPO is a cold loading pattern into N/A ... it starts up in the NW territories...than spreads S-E throughout the Can shield. Then, if/when the +PNA does arrive ... even transient mode states will then promote delivery S of the border. If I were asked at this point in time - an act that seldom happens these days... haha ... I would tell you that this is all a present cold --> warm --> cold transition spanning the next 3 weeks, with those successive periods being lesser confidence as to their lengths/amplitude.

I know a lot of people here don’t like him, but the Pope knows his shit. Yes, his meteorology background is unconventional, but that doesn’t make the knowledge he has any less real. He may end up being wrong, but as someone who was (and still is) pounding the table for a big January, the concerns he brought up in regards to the thermals are real and valid issues. If the +EPO strengthens/pac trends worse, he absolutely could be right. Disagreeing is fine, but its important to take a scientific approach, not an emotional one. This also means using guidance as tools rather than looking for a quick dopamine hit (I’m guilty of this myself, but am actively working on changing my mindset).

A handful (4-5) of members bring the coastal far enough north to bring some wintry precip here. LWX actually shouted it out in their AFD as well. It would be an outlier outcome but something to watch while we wait for greener pastures.

Nothing big. It did show a light snow event on 1/4. 1/6 is still there too actually but again, not a biggie.

December was another DRY month. I received 1.76" of rain and melted snow.......... 68% of normal. 6.5" of snow gave .45" of q.p. 31 degrees at 2:30 with a 12 mph N.W. wind.

Good storm for Novie. Hazey still hang around?

Am I wrong in my very limited knowledge that this generally aligns with the AMO phases?

euro 12z

So that’s a “no” so many ups and downs, and I don’t mean wheelies. Fortunately, up here something will probably work out.

Pope just wants warm weather so he can get back on that crotch rocket. It’s tough to pop wheelies in this weather.

Maybe it flips back, but we had been looking at a -NAO dominated pattern for mid-late next week that gave us a chance at a storm. Last 2-3 cycles have diminished that by both weakening the NAO a bit and bringing that big PAC trough on shore (I think @Ralph Wiggumalluded to this?). After that we evolve into a PNA/EPO ridge pattern after the 10th and that seems more or less the same as it looked yesterday and the days prior.

That January 10th-15th 2026 timeframe is looking more and more promising. The timing of it is eerily similar to our January 9th/10th storm from earlier this year. We definitely want no part of the Ice storm its showing. As far as clown maps go that was a doozy for central Arkansas, (53 inches ZR).

This is true. Miller As which used to occur 50% of the time and models did well with are about 15% now and models always were mostly helpless with Bs for DC area. Bs have 12 hour prediction of off Hatteras and next presentation over Pittsburgh and repeat cycle everywhere in between. They never have really gotten the idea that most Bs have precip shield too far NE of DC. So we continue to get a lot of sample and example but zero consistency for any predictions

I would disagree with the can kick idea with this situation. It was always mid-late January that was going to be good. Then suddenly early-January pops up and gets overhyped, and then it disappears. IMO it was never our time, especially with that forecast +EPO.

Looking at the EPS there's quite a spread in temps starting Sunday and if you squint perhaps a remote chance of light snow over the weekend?

Like Feb 1-3, 2021

Yeah I looked at the LR when he posted - upper air looked good, then I looked at surface and it was trash warm so, he was on to something.

Nothing on the horizon for weeks

I'm here to bring back some hope to the forum: Checked out WB and JB just drew a comparison to the latest CFS run and 1996. We're back in.

Yea. Just enjoy the ride and the circus.

Torch or not there's still no snow. It is what it is ,but there's just no SS action when it matters for us. Its literally been years now.

Nothing good on the 12z euro? I assume so since not a single post about it. That's usually the tell

Well we got a nice dopamine hit yesterday, lol Now we gotta see if this was just a little rushed or if it's the proverbial can-kick. Kinda feel like we oughta know by next week. If we get to next week and Day 8-10 looks like we gotta punt them too then there might be a problem (maybe). All we can do kow is wait. Like I said yesterday...now may be a good time to take a break

Brutal, but I've seen more infuriating snowfall gradients