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  2. ChescoWx
    A member asked for an analysis of 100 degree days by decade since the 1890's. This is normalized as days per station per year (total 100°F+ days across all stations in a decade, divided by the number of station-years of data in that decade) rather than a raw sum — otherwise a decade with 22 stations would look "hotter" than a decade with 4 stations just from having more thermometers out there, which would be misleading. The pattern holds up clearly at the county level, same as it did for individual stations: the 1930s stand out sharply at about 1.1 days per station per year — nearly double any other decade — consistent with the well-documented Dust Bowl-era heat. From there the rate declines fairly steadily, bottoming out near zero in the 1970s and again in the 2020s (0.01 and 0.02 days/station/year respectively), with the 2000s-2010s sitting in a modest middle range around 0.11–0.15. Worth flagging directly: the two lowest decades in the entire 130-year record are the 1970s and the current 2020s — and the current decade of the 2020s (partial decade).
  3. SnoSki14
    Atmosphere is a lot more unstable vs the weekend. Severe potential is a lot higher later
  4. yoda
    \ Mesoscale Discussion 1688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Areas affected...northeast Kentucky...northern West Virginia...and southern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211615Z - 211815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase this afternoon across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky into West Virginia. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in southeast Ohio will likely continue east-southeast into a more unstable airmass along a differential heating zone developing across northern West Virginia. Damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with this cluster. Additional storms are expected to strengthen farther southwest through the afternoon with sufficient shear for some supercell structures. Damaging winds will likely be the main threat with this activity with some large hail potential. In addition, a tornado or two is also possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens this afternoon/evening. A watch will likely be needed within the next 1 to 2 hours to address the threat from the ongoing activity and any additional storms which develop. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
  5. Brian5671
    Torrential rain here and rolling thunder but no wind
  6. Picard
    I topped out at 1.38" after the much smaller second round. In my childhood home in Lafayette - 5 miles as the crow flies, Mom reports 2.5", and she's good with the rain gauge, I taught her well! Zooming in on Weather Underground does show several reports in the low 2s throughout that general area. It's a bummer that Rutgers doesn't have more stations in this area. There is a rather big gap in coverage from the High Point / Vernon / Sandyston area down to Central Morris County. There is a station in Lafayette, I drive by it frequently, but it rarely reports anything anymore. Hell, I'll even volunteer to help maintain a couple of them if they put more up.
  7. Hoth
    Ugh, still dealing with residual issues from Saturday and July 7-8. Don’t need any more rain.
  8. steve392
    Had non stop thunder and strong winds from those systems in nw Bergen County. Minimal rains. Sparta, nj reported 3.31" of rain this morning.
  9. snowman19
    Warm water volume up to +2.65
  10. winterwx21
    I see the 15z run continues this theme, with storms scattered around throughout the afternoon instead of a break and then a main line for the early evening. Who knows -- these events are difficult to predict. I see on radar more downpours are popping up in eastern PA, so maybe this new idea from the HRRR is going to be correct.
  11. LVblizzard
    The HRRR has been adamant about this early activity and it still has severe storms around later. I don’t think it fully kills the severe threat…it does make it a little tougher though.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, the connection has been spotty this morning.
  13. Cyclone-68
    At least the last two years I was mostly missing them 15 miles to the south. This year eastern MA hasn’t even been in the game
  14. NorthHillsWx
    This looks like a coastal storm Snowfall Map
  15. yoda
    Watchi coming soon for KY/OH/WV per MCD just issued... LWX mentioned in WFO list
  16. A-L-E-K
  17. weatherwiz
    It's a good thing there is minimal sfc instability or at the least sfc parcels aren't getting to the LFC. Also, thats some pretty hefty ZDR values around Monroe to Seymour to Oxford...definitely some FF concern
  18. Kmlwx
    Would think a mesoscale discussion would be coming in the next 1-2 hours. But only guessing.
  19. LeesburgWx
    It’s Humid AF outside and Sun keeps poking through.
  20. CoastalWx
    Looks like more Merrit to 95 that will be an issue
  21. Damage In Tolland
    Nope. SE CT to RI to CC have gotten hit all summer. Nothing to do with that . Just shit luck
  22. yoda
    85/75 S 15 HX 93 at DCA at noon
  23. CoastalWx
    Ocean isn’t an issue. It’s all along the warm front.
  24. winterwx21
    So ridiculous. So many people don't understand the nature of summer storms, which of course is that only isolated spots get hit with flooding or damage. You shouldn't close things down due to thunderstorm potential.
  25. Modfan2
    Just curious, what is the forcing mechanism in SW CT where they have been getting lit up and does the S/SE wind in eastern sections from cooler ocean waters stabilizing the atmosphere the further east you go?
  26. donsutherland1
    I agree. It's disappointing that equipment maintenance is no longer a priority.
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