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74/ 71 plenty of clouds and earlier forecasts for less cloud not verifying. Warm and humid and with enough sun some of the hotter places could sneak in a 90 especially inland in NJ. After some showrs/rain on Friday and onshore Labor day extended weekend. A bit of a mix on the models through and beyond mid month would go overall near normal and see if the ridge and any associated heat come north with it days to watch for a quick surge of heat would be in the other than today , 9/10 / 9/12 and after mid month but tendency is staying south.

I know everyone is different. The dew point is too high for me to consider it pleasant.

there are more than 1,500 guests logged in, most of which visited the main forum page within the last 1/2 hour ? curious

Definitely the rub ... whether ENSO is related or not, that 'bleeding into AK' is often a torpedo, and it's useful to note too because the model handling of the GOA is idiosyncratic; it's positive or negative interference in the actual state sends mid and extended range error. Smaller GOA errors in position seems to higher sensitive and total response in whether cold conveyors orient more S or ... more importantly for cold/winter enthusiasts, deflects more E across the Canadian northern tier - regardless of CPF of or not. The latter aspect of La Nina hangover episodes is interesting, though. The whole RONI aspect is also relevant here.

just give up on our disappearing season and embrace the lengthening one

I had one or two thunder/lightning Sunday night; that it.

suffer

I just consider June 1 - Sept. 30 to be met summer now here. September as a fall month is gone.

I swear it's been thundering constantly for the last 36 hours. For dogs who hate thunder and have no concept of time, this is probably what living in the Balkans in the 90s was like.

Usually in a warm ENSO of this magnitude, the GOA low is so prominent that it often bleeds into AK in the mean, so the season ends up predominately +EPO....BUT, one wild card is how that residual cool ENSO residue across the north Pacific parlays this season....yea, it will probably augment the Canadian ridge, but might it also mitigate the lower height leakage into AK, and potentially not bury the STJ quite as much as would be implied by the HOF-juggernaut El Nino composite?? Interesting....

To imagine that careening into the STJ over Texas, huh ho man

Round 3 looking lock and loaded for later this morning...

Yea, that is what I figured he meant. I don't think we'll see that in the mean, but definitely possible for shorter windows.

71F/DP 71F w/the sun breaking out. This air mass sucks. BUT < 20 days....

Yep...shifting to Hockey, football and Hoops. Don't forget Premier league too.

Not part of the conversation's immediate history here but... the EPO and PNA can sometimes be in the -EPO/+PNA tandem. When extreme enough, and fully physically realized on the actual hemispheric synoptic layout out, this results in the "cross polar flow" type. This is synonymous with a deep layer cold conveyor that patterns from Siberia, across the (pre-CC explosion era) frozen expanse Arctic Ocean, down over and usually E of the Canadian Rockies ... into the NP and ultimately frosting oranges in Florida. It's important to context that the longer term moment correlation between these indices is actually modestly positive. So having a tandem -EPO/+PNA should be rarer than the means, and well ... we don't actually observe a bona fide Cross Polar Flow set up so often and there we go... As an aside, when time lags are applied to the indices, I'm not sure ( though suspect it is so - ) if there is a better negative correlation that is exposed. Because I have observed countless times over 30 years of this crap, a -EPO --> +PNA over an ~ 3-5 day lapse. A time in which the EPO relaxes back to neutral aft of a +d(PNA). It gives the allusion if not physical exposure of a planetary wave roll out of the N. Pacific. This is not the same as cross polar flow. More like a "relay". It's the more common type and regulates the periodicity of cold loading events into Canada. For regions between the NP/GL-NE drape, the difference between a CPF hemisphere, vs this latter delivery, is probably less than meaningfully different - both showcase someone heaving a boiling cup of water to demo saturation vapor pressure causing half of it to explode into vapor, while the other half rings to the ground like shattered stemware. Maybe the CPF is 7 deg colder in the core of the cold extreme or something but below -10 F either way, wtf cares... Just sayn' ...

I can remember we used to have them years ago. And it seemed to occur during around the last week of July, not the first week of September. Also I remember September 2011 Labor day evening had heavy drenching Thunderstorms that dumped over 2 in. Of rain in a very short time on the drought stricken area. My creek came up 3 feet from that thunderstorm. Then a few days later Lee showed up...the rest is history.

This is now on the short end of the midrange at no less than 120 hrs out now. Yet, it still should be tabbed with unusual uncertainty due to the lower accuracy of modeling a trough capture interaction. Yet, these are severe modeled impacts we have to watch. I must also be clear that the GFS has had its issues. Really, all global OPs have due to various lacking of data sampling. That being said, five days is, well, five days. We're creeping closer into short-range territory. Does this hold? I must admit I don't like this appearance. Any undermodeling of that trough and cutoff evolution, and we're even further east. Never like to be east of these when it comes to a southwesterly steering current.

Can't believe I'm saying this on day 3 but alas...

I do not think the northern tier has to worry about those temps.

Ended up with 0.50” overnight. Safe bet to say I’ll tack on to that in the next 24hrs.

seems like some showers regenerating to my west. Should crack .30" at least Dews gonna be in the low 70s later