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We only winter weather now. Summer is stein.

Yes. Est based El Ninos are not favorable for snow in these parts. Prove me wrong atmosphere! Never let Ji start a winter thread again.

The new EURO SEAS5 continues with a strong +IOD developing. Given all the other current antecedent conditions in both the ocean and atmosphere, there is going to be no limit to how much this Niño strengthens and couples from here on out. It would not surprise me if the MEI reaches or surpasses +2 come August….

Cold all winter. Bury us in snow. Let us sweat to the 90s in summer.

We have another shot of heat coming around the 16th and 17th.

Rockland is hosting the state junior league softball tournament starting sunday. Looks like we lucked out so far, especially sunday and monday.

Low of 69 with 1.31” of rain. I’ll finally have to mow again soon. Heading out on the river this morning. Happy Friday.

Cue the meltdowns by the usual suspects...

It will be a classic “strong Nino” winter though.

I don't think storm chances were ever particularly high for today. Always seemed more isolated

I still don't understand how ideas can be drawn on how a summer will be based on the concept of what *may* occur in terms of an ENSO event which is in the stages of development.

Whoa…Storm chances really dried up this afternoon? Never mind severe, just a terrible summer for thunder around here at all so far

That's Zucker-douchery et al leveraging that - it's by design. Heh, to him ... the whole world's a bunch of "zuckers" Time for a crank op ed: It keeps their constituency engaged. Obviously, a major component of that success has to be time. Any amount of time is good for their product ... So, they pimp the "new" post and the recency date because like all sociopathic captains of industry, they can hide in the equivocation - partial truth - of it. Heh-yeah, Jack Poster just made a new post. Got it! Bust divisive manipulation is still just a lie. And thus keeps you thumb swipin' like an OCD ass-wiper. Social media's evolved so much faster than any kind of public trust laws can keep up, the whole thing is morally insolvent, and 0 trustworthy. You know ... in an indirectly related topic, these AI agencies are claiming this is why Claude or Gemini or OpenAI or whichever... sometimes hallucinate? Per explanations, it's because they are fed information that are ultimately the hallucinations of the "idiocracy". They're not saying that precisely, but it does imply idiocy in - idiocy out. Either way, doesn't that imply they are really just web-surfing assists? Imho, AI is just Google on steroids from what I can tell. You can find the same answers whether in research endeavors and/or use to assist in creative ventures, just as well with Google or Duck-Duck-Go...etc, but what these AI agencies have created is a familiar happy-place, more personalizing delivery dressing for a species growing more nakedly empty, lonely, incels desperate to be heard. Which is ironic... because technology put people into that ontological state of affairs to begin with. And this dressing is a rudimentary simulacra that delivers in kind of a "Data" (Star Trek: Next Generation) - like, increasingly more sweet and creepy sultry ego waxing. There are even dim wits applying for marriage licenses, so I've heard. You know ...let 'em! It's a silent Darwin award that salvage humanity from having to integrate their genetic weight. But look out, "we don't know how it works" - that oughta capture the attention of humanity! - no doubt. They claim it's a self-evolving sort of primitive albeit virtual nuero-nodal network - which sounds a bit like Data talking, huh. But I guess that's analogous to a brain - I think as it was cited on 60-Minutes or Joe Rogan or whatever. Anyway, going back to the idiocy in - idiocy out explanation: that logically implies they're just accessing all of the web then. These things are generating facts supernaturally. And then this "brain", yeeeah..okay, but it's really just using probability to winnow down to the most likely correct answers and/or appropriate contribution to exchanges. Unfortunately, that filtering down does not make the probability zero that some fucktard's BS doesn't get through. So these hallucinations aren't really "imagination" of sorts... That's just them polishing the patina of the awe they got going with an explanation that sounds like Artificial sentience. No, it's really just Joe Farmer from the back-40's nimroddery occasionally blathering through.

Records: Highs: EWR: 105 (1993) NYC: 102 (1993) LGA: 99 (1993) JFK: 100 (1993) Lows: EWR: 58 (2009) NYC: 55 (1890) LGA: 60 (1953) JFK: 58 (2009) Historical: 1776: A strong gale played a role in a battle between the Royal Governor of Virginia, Dunmore, and General Lewis of the rebel forces. The royal fleet had been injured prior to the storm by General Lewis' forces and was sailing from Gwynn's Island toward St. George's Island, in the Potomac. The British crew was without water and enduring smallpox when the gale struck. A flour-laden supply ship ran aground. One ships foundered at the Mouth of the Rappahannock, while another was stranded on the Eastern shore (Shomette). The H.M.S. Otter, the Governor's ship, was rescuing another ship in distress. They were rescued just in time. After loading the distressed ship's cargo, the ship sunk. The governor later left Virginia for good on August 5th. Many ships in the area suffered damage to their rigging, sails, and anchors. Two vessels were driven ashore in St. Mary's county (Shomette). (Ref. Hurricane of 1776) 1911: The mercury hit 105 degrees at North Bridgton, Maine the hottest reading of record for Maine. North Bridgton also reached 105 degrees on the 4th of July in 1911. 1913 - The mercury hit 134 degrees at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, the hottest reading of record for the North American continent. Sandstorm conditions accompanied the heat. The high the previous day was 129 degrees, following a morning low of 93 degrees. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1926 - A lightning bolt struck an ammunition magazine in northern New Jersey, and a big red ball of fire leaped into the air triggering a series of explosions. All buildings within a half mile radius were destroyed, and debris fell as far as twenty-two miles away. Sixteen persons were killed, and property damage was seventy million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1936 - Afternoon highs of 112 degrees at Martinsburg, WV, 109 degrees at Cumberland, MD, and Frederick, MD, 110 degrees at Runyon, NJ, and 111 degrees at Phoenixville, PA, established all-time record highs for those four states. It was the hottest day of record for the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. (The Weather Channel) 1955: On July 10th Boston had severe thunderstorms producing the highest 1 hour precipitation total of 2.10 inches. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1959: Yuma, AZ reached 118°, the hottest reading during an extended heat wave that saw temperatures rise to over 100° for an entire month. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1974: Central Ohio--One person was killed and another injured by a lightning strike on a golf course in Morrow County. Tequesta, Palm Beach County, Fla.--Two employees of the Tequesta Water Company were struck by lightning while working on a water meter at a private residence. One was killed and the other knocked unconscious. Western Pennsylvania--One man was killed by lightning while cleaning up mud on a road; another died of a heart attack.(Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1975: Manassas, VA a nine-year-old girl playing under a tree is struck and killed by lightning. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1975: Baltimore, MD picked up 4.66 inches of rain in 24 hours. 1979 - The temperature at El Paso, TX, hit 112 degrees, an all-time record for that location. The next day was 110 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1980 - The temperature in downtown Kansas City, MO, hit 109 degrees, following a sultry overnight low of 89 degrees. The daily low of 89 degrees was the warmest of record for Kansas City, and overall it was the hottest July day of record. It was the seventh of a record seventeen consecutive days of 100 degree heat, and the mean temperature for the month of 90.2 degrees was also an all-time record for Kansas City. 1984: An F2 tornado touched down in the Dellwood subdivision along Castle Rock Lake, WI. A total of 59 homes were hit and 14 were destroyed. More than 2,000 trees were downed. Winds from the accompanying thunderstorm also flattened a potato warehouse 12 miles north of Friendship. An F1 tornado touched down south of Decorah, IA and wrought significant damage to more than one farmstead. The storm turned a 40,000 bushel grain bin inside out and wrapped it around a chicken house. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - An early morning thunderstorm in Minnesota produced wind gusts to 91 mph at Waseca. Later that day, thunderstorms in South Dakota produced wind gusts to 81 mph at Ipswitch, and baseball size hail near Hayes and Capa. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms brought welcome rains to parts of the central U.S., but produced severe weather along the New England coast, in the Great Lakes Region, in North Carolina, and in the Southern Plateau Region. Strong thunderstorm winds gusting to 80 mph at Bullfrog, UT, sank three boats on Lake Powell. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Severe thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes in the northeastern U.S. A powerful (F-4) tornado struck Hamden CT and New Haven, CT, causing 100 million dollars damage at Hamden, and another 20 million dollars damage around New Haven. Forty persons were injured in the tornado. Seventy persons were injured in a tornado which traveled from Watertown, CT, to Waterbury, CT, and another powerful (F-4) tornado touched down near Ames NY injuring twenty persons along its 43.5 mile track. It was the strongest tornado of record for eastern New York State. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1993: Seven inches of rain fell in one hour at Adrian, MN. During normal summers, such incredible downpours might cause flash flooding, but not widespread river flooding. But during the spring and summer of 1993, such events were commonplace and the resulting flooding was catastrophic. 1993: more record heat occurred across the east. Record highs included: Newark, NJ: 105°, NYC-Central Park, NY: 102°, Atlantic City, NY: 101°, NYC-Kennedy, NY: 100°, Providence, RI: 100°, Wilmington, NC: 100°, NYC-LaGuardia, NY: 99°, Dulles Airport, VA: 99°, Raleigh, NC: 99°, Portland, ME: 98°, Concord, NH: 98° and Islip, NY: 98°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: Thunderstorms brought heavy rain and strong winds to northeast Illinois, during the early morning hours. Flash flooding occurred in parts of La Salle, De Kalb, Kendall and Kankakee Counties, where rainfall of 4 to 7 inches was reported. Nearly 15,000 people were without power for 12 hours. Flooding ripped up 50 feet of pavement in downtown Kankakee. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004: Kodiak, Alaska: The daily high ties the highest July temperature for Kodiak: 82°F. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2005: Although Dennis re-intensified into a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph early on July 10 over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, it weakened to Category 3 strength before making landfall over the western Florida Panhandle near Navarre Beach late that day. Dennis degenerated to a low pressure area over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and it was eventually absorbed by an extratropical low over southeastern Canada on July 18. Dennis' Storm Track and other info.- NOAA.Gov.-N.H.C. 2005 - Hurricane Dennis landed near Pensacola, Florida as a category 3 storm. Maximum sustained winds at the time of landfall were near 120 mph. There were nine hurricane-related fatalities in the U.S. and preliminary estimates of insured losses ranged from $1 to $1.5 billion. 2009: More like a sizzling hot day in a desert location, instead of NW OK. Nonetheless, with highs of 115 degrees, Freedom broke its all-time record. On this record-setting day, Buffalo heated to 90 degrees by 6:00 a.m. and 107 by 11:00 a.m. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

78 / 72 partly clear. Mid 80s to low 90s in the hottest locations - where stay the clearest and driest. Storms into approaching CPA should reach the area between 2 - 6 pm or some isolated sooner. Saturday / Sunday looking mainly good but Saturday could see some storms in the PM is well before we enter a drier / warmer period 7/ 13 and beyond. Ridge out west peaks Mon - Wed , more western heat comes in 2-3 day intervals before EC ridging towards the 23rd. 7/10 - 7/11 : Warm / humid scattered storms 7/12 - 7/13: Dry - near - below normal - great days 7/14 - 7/16 : Western heat comes east mid - upper 90s, some 100 degree readings possible NJ-PHL area 7/17 - 7/22 : Near normal (warmest part of year = 85 - 90 type weather) 7/23 - beyond : Warmer - hot , heat perists into the east

And the WMO validated it in December 2021. https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-recognizes-new-arctic-temperature-record-of-380c

I'm surprised 2015 didn't hold the record. It rained heavy in the morning and later in the day.

Just amazing out there this morning on my run.

That is correct. My Modoki events since 1950 are: 1958-1959, 1968-1969, 1977-1978, 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2009-2010 and 2014-2015.

Mild down this weekend and then mid 90s return next week. Man what a summer. LOL strong Nino.

Still in a severe drought in NYC and parts of LI. As good as the rain’s been we need more. Hopefully some score today and tomorrow since we likely dry back up after.

.35” yesterday.

Nice night to have the windows open and cool the house down. Low of 48 here, cool spot in MQT County was 40 @ Eagle Mine. Warm day in the upper-70's on tap before another round of heat settles in.

Looks like another chance for storms today. It looks like the good stuff stays in the mountains. I'm glad to see some nice weather starting Sunday. I've gotten behind of a couple weather dependent projects.

Massive -SOI turnaround since March. 30 day down to -25. Today’s number is over -44