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That’s interesting. I hope there is no more tree damage for the mid state from severe weather. With all the loss of trees the last few years & from this ice storm. I’m saying mercy to Mother Nature.

So I guess Islip wasn't operating in 1961, 1920 or 1881 (three years with subzero lows in the area). NYC at 30.4 F had its (tied) 55th coldest January of the now 158 in data, and using a sliding scale of 0 to 2 F for urban heat island conversion, it ranked 44th coldest. In that series, it was between 1963 (45th) and 2022 (43rd).

I’m happy with the possibility of a couple of minor refreshers this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see something more substantial pop up as we get closer to when the current pattern starts to relax.

I would certainly agree with you concerning February 2024 simply because it was hyped so much. For a couple of weeks before that, all these extended ensembles and weeklies were showing an epic pattern through the entire month of February (and into March). Like I recall literally day after day people talking about it. Then it flipped to showing the opposite as we got into February and that month just sucked. BUT...I will disagree with you that 2023-24 was on the level of 2022-23 simply because we got a couple of decent events within a week around Jan. 15, and we had some legit cold for a period. We even got a coating in December 2023, for the first time in any December in some years. In 2022-23, there was literally NOTHING and it was very warm throughout; the only "exciting" thing that season was the Arctic blast around Christmas that didn't give us anything but 2-3 cold days.

Intended this for banter.... I know this stuff often turns into a big debate, but if the argument for not sending kids to school is lack of shoveled sidewalks or lack of plowed turn lanes, what's the end game with that? Aside from south facing surfaces, melting this week will not be significant. So then you're talking about keeping them home again this week??? What if sidewalks are still shit come Friday when the arctic front comes through? Then you keep them home the following as well? There aren't enough willing bodies to clear sidewalks that have yet to be touched....its a waiting game on a melt out at this point.

Nice trend on AIGFS over the last day

HAHAHAHAHAHA JOKE'S ON THE REST OF NC. WAKE COUNTY IS FINALLY IN THE JACKPOT ZONE FOR THURSDAY'S MONSTER STORM!!!!! START THE THREAD!!!!!

What thaw?

Yeah I'm not sure there's a "good" answer. Transitioning to remote learning sucks, but maybe that's better than closing and safer than trying to force people in? I really don't know. FCPS closed by the way. This is probably pretty off topic here though, so I'll leave it at that.

Look at the flow. Canadian air is cutoff. We "might" be a bit BN in temps post frontal passage, but in mid-Feb that's cutting it real close in these parts. Hopefully, the Gefs is right. I don't have much hope in that but that's a better outcome than those maps imho. Moreover, the only precip of consequence on the Eps is a frontal passage around 306 hrs. You can see that on this link if you run it through the entire 12z run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2026020112&fh=24 This is why I effin' hate counting on long range ensembles as I worried in a post this morning. Among other things, they can change in a couple runs just like operational models and are only good until the next run.

Sublimation is our friend

Here is some video from my chase to the Triad since Raleigh was stuck in the dry slot.

Hit 35F at 4pm, higher than expected, good melting on the southern sides. Low of 18 at 7:41am. Even with the plows coming through, streets are soon to be a sheet of ice.

North Carolina completely white on satellite? What is the last time that has happened. I remember the colder winters of 2003, 2010. Maybe those 1/24/2000 should have been a situation where the flatter areas of NC were completely white

23-24 could count too due to the spectacular failure of the epic blocking.

I will probably never see 11 inches of snow in my lifetime. Was ecstatic to exceed expectations last night. We did drunken sledding down some steep hills during the peak of it. Will carry those memories for the rest of my life.

Disappointment (at least to me) is like the winter of 2022-23. One blast of Arctic air around Christmas that moderated dramatically shortly after (and no snow here). Absolutely ZERO snow in December or January. All of 0.5" the first part of February that was gone before noon. And a bit of snow-TV sometime around the end of February or early March. Nearly a torch gate to gate, there were even still some bugs out I recall! Nothing really at all to track the entire season. Now THAT is a freaking fail of a winter right there. That year tops my futility list, more so than something like 2011-12 or 2016-17.

So far at 18z the models are engineering a perfectly dry week with the bowling ball ULL and a follow up shortwave traversing southern ON to NNY perfectly suppressing any storm threats.

It’s one reason why the internet is garbage for weather. It’s become like a damn spectator sport and hype machine. According to the weather media we should have all been dead from starvation if we didn’t stock up on groceries before the storm.

Personally I’m glad it didn’t snow.. my neighborhood is still an ice box! It would be even worse if a fresh snowpack was on top of all this & then re froze … F that! Btw the 13-15th timeframe looks like it could be another pretty bad freezing rain event…

Yeah where I am (the southern part of the county) there are turn lanes onto the FFX Co Parkway that are still not clear. Wild, I can't remember the last time it was like this with the cleanup. I'm an FCPS teacher - the opening paragraph in an internal email from the superintendent implied they are still deciding whether it's safe to open tomorrow. Word is supposed to come out this afternoon, but they are running out of "afternoon."

window for better/bigger storm potential incoming.

Some people use a heated length of tubing that trickles water out. Of course, it needs to go in before the ice jam. One thing that does help is to open the area where it drains down into the downspout/leader, at least what later melts can trickle away. I melt the area by pouring warm water until it's open. You need to be able to get to the spot though. I have one spot where I do this on the north side of my home.

12z AI EPS stays workable on the 15th & the run ends with more transience.

2 days ago people on twitter were screaming record cold through February…. Today they’re all screaming torch second half of February lol