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I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different.

I largely ignore it and treat as an ensemble member...too much data as is.

Agreed. While it's possible the Newburgh waterfront on the Hudson is a slushy 33F vs. 32F and accumulating snow at Stewart airport, the model soundings say elevation along the transition zone might only matter in terms of rain vs. ZR.

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing".

Indeed, after doing poorly with phase 6, the EPS absolutely was doing much better than GEFS getting into phase 7 between the 11/15 and 11/18 runs: 11/15 EPS: poor for 6; much better for getting into 7 11/15 GEFS: great for 6 but bad for getting into 7 (way too slow as 7 actually started on 11/27): Similar comparisons for 11/17-8 runs: 11/17 EPS: almost spot on with 11/27 ph 7 timing: 11/17 GEFS: still not in 7 on 12/1 11/18 EPS: great with ph 7 11/18 GEFS: not into phase 7 til 12/2, 5 days too late

12z Euro... doesn't get much better for Iowa.

What a cute model

Walker circulation and yes. It’s why relative ONI (RONI) is used frequently here, because the eastern equatorial pacific warming relatively slower than the rest of the pacific is amplifying La Niña and also weakens the signal of El Niño to some extent. Walker circulation: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy

It's the offensive line

For old times sake, SREF plume has me at 9.5” with a number of higher members and nothing below 7”. Locked in.

+SDC would def work better for my area on the GFS, I think....like 3-4".

As opposed to the brutal 4-5-6 response from last year?

At least 12z Euro AI gets precip into interior SNE now.

The GFS gradient is like 5" at KLWN and 10" IMBY lol Nuts.

Dont sleep on that little burst tomorrow night out this way.

Crossing my fingers too. I saw your call and if it is onto something, you might have to bring your totals down a little, especially to the south and I would that for you (and me lol). But at least you have warned the public about possible last minute changes since we are riding the edge. So far IWX and you are in pretty good agreement though.

Hard to lock anything beyond 72hrs now, sometimes not even a lock inside that anymore. The struggle is real.

Yeah the early morning through mid to possibly late afternoon look good here. Probably several hours of solid rates. But I would be shocked with a low track that north if we dont mix or switchover at some point. But good thing is here looks to happen towards end of the event when most of our accumulation is done already. This system doesn't have much of a deformation zone.

Welcome!

4” overnight plus today? Must be a sweet powder day. Its been snowing for a couple hours (1”/hr) and about 2” new today after 1” overnight. This is accumulations since about 9-10am in the base area.

Agree it looks good right now, but too close. I'm comfy betting on a NW trend at day 4 in early Dec that depends on a cf penetrating into warmish ocean water and a baroclinic zone setting up offshore or near shore.

What are the temps like?

PowellVols is in. Had to start a new account, new email .

Welcome! Glad to have you in our great group of Mountain posters! May there be many 'Jebwalks' in your future!

I'm betting he's at least 75% snow in this...probably all snow. Even the zonked GFS is like right on the line for him to be mostly snow.