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Looks like Friday's frontal passage (timed for around 0900h EST) could lead to a few hail or snow showers with rapidly falling temperatures? It would be around 45F before the front goes through and low to mid 30s by afternoon in W-NW winds gusting to 35 or 40 mph. Lots of ups and downs in temperature trends now to end of the month, it looks likely to average near normal so the current large negative anomaly would be essentially cut in half (balanced by a zero anomaly for half a month). But it looks very cold near the end of the current GFS run by NYE-NYD.

I think what he means is a northwesterly flow turning more west-northwesterly aloft with winds turning southwesterly and overriding the cold air at the surface. Oh, and we are on the far southwestern edge of the cold air that is slowly being eroded from the west in time.

He’s established and respected. Not some nobody looking for web clicks. He has to believe it on some level.

i saw 22-23 and that scared the shit out of me

Definitely has slowed down the fall, currently 18.3/11.9 at 9 pm here.

I tried to play the video…it wouldn’t play for me. Guess you need the app.

MASSIVE PATTERN CHANGE in the west including Texas and the Californian Sierran Cordillera means well above normal in Austin alongside increased storm chances in the Californian and Navadan Cordillera in the coming days. It would be nice to see a record Atmospheric River smash without mercy right into Mammoth Mountain, dumping meters upon meters of snow upon Mammoth. Palisades Tahoe has yet to open!!! They may not manage that until early 2026 lmao! This ski season may indeed turn out to be the latest seasonal opening ever experienced in Palisades since the resort opened up 75 years ago! We shall see. Meanwhile in the East, continued serious Arctic conditions persist for the Mid Atlantic with a brief mildup and beneficial rains Thursday BUT more cold air and more snow chances continue.

Ice on OBX sounds

I still am intrigued by the 22-23 period even though the GFS op lost the little event it had at 12z. This feature leading in sliding off NE is getting better for such an event, improving the mid level flow over us for something sneaky: Temps by the 23rd are getting betting as well: Precip for 22nd into the 23rd, not as strong of a trend but at the very least the GEFS is not screaming "dry." The ingredients aren't just on the GEFS but I am too lazy to get GIFs for all of them given pivotal's beta GIF creator is borked so I can't do off hour stuff for the euro and... it's a lot of work to invest in when it probably isn't gonna happen! For now I think I just want to see things trend colder for Sat/Sun. Easy to pick out the mid level trends for that, and it's the first requirement to meet for this to at all be possible.

Noyes is top notch. No one better at pattern recognition

Really solid event for the Cape. Especially this early in the season. Not bad to pull borderline warning criteria on Dec 14th.

Vodka cold?? I like that lol

The surface pressure anomalies are not bad throughout.

He def knows his stuff. I learned much from him my freshman year at Cornell (he was a senior there in the met department when I was a freshman)

Have to look at the surface. 500 maps are missing cold shots. I think we are going to see a fairly normal pattern for December at this latitude. What I am looking for is not non stop chinooks. I am resigned to some chinooks mayhem. We were close to a winter storm that run.

Very nice!!

I like your optimism, but unfortunately I don’t see anything redeeming at all on the 18z GFS. There’s essentially no snowfall south of 46N through the entire 16-day run. I know it’s only one model run, but my takeaway is that the chinook pattern is continuing, even if any “torches” are generally muted in our areas. The area east of the Rockies to the Mississippi River continues to be dry as a bone, run after run. And for me, any temps warmer than 40F this time of year is considered a torch. The 18z GFS is just way too mild over the next 2 weeks in NE IL for my liking, and another concern is that Canada and the northern tier of the US are losing the deep cold. We need to see more of a look where the ridge retrogrades and forms a -EPO. Maybe the pieces are being put into place for that to occur in January, but I would hate to lose the most festive two weeks of the year (holidays, short days, etc.) to mild and boring weather. I would love for someone to correct me, and encourage me to be more optimistic. But it’s maddening to see temps in SD, CO, and NE in the 40s and 50s day after day after day. That never seems to work out well here. Here is an example panel. Of course it’s only a snapshot from one model at one exact point in time that’s pretty far out, but those temps are way too mild for the coldest part of the day (12z). That would be a decent map for late November, but not late December.

I mean, I guess. Before I moved here, I never really thought it made a difference, but it does. I can be at work in Navy yard with marginal temps and snow and nothing... get home and it's like an inch and a half of snow. So I guess I'm kinda snow blind. DCA is like 800ft below sea level.

18" at state college. Super heavy and wet and fell in about 8 hours

Took my wife 1:10 to get from downtown to Devon’s.

Nothing I have a hard time seeing a torch in January and February with a neutral enso going into el nino.

I'm not a huge fan of AI but I have Google Gemini at work and plan on using it to make some charts with regards to snowfall patterns/data.

He is a very good met. He used to weenie out a bit way back when, but has gotten more realistic.

High of 29F here - spiked when the sun came out briefly here. Been steady around 25 since around 4pm and now slowly rising.

yep - this is some proper cold.