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This is perfect. That’s all we need. well put and very reasonable. Nobody is in a fantasy world…we know the caveats, it doesn’t look great(the pattern), nothing wrong with stating that, but there is potential. And basing your negativity on Op runs at 8-11 days lead is just stupid/foolish. But ridiculous posts like, shut the shades, and this sucks, winter is over, we are boned(moaning like a little bi*ch), who cares if its early, it blows, I got 2” but was hoping for 3-4” so now it all sucks, etc etc…is downright ridiculous. That’s the point.

12z suite highlights. The 12z Euro(surprise!) now carries the banner for cold. The Dec20-30th timeframe for NE TN is normal-ish. It has the least feedback over the PNW. The Dec 19-20 cold front is now a "go" with it being legit Canadian cold. Can we score another front on the 22nd per the Euro - the GFS lost it, but I bet it's real. The really interesting one is the backdoor cold front on the 27th. Yes, it looks like Christmas should be warm with the cycle of warm fronts and cold fronts seeming to have it locked in between cold fronts - but who knows really. At nine days out, anything can happen. Maybe the really big news is the NAO looks on steroids on both the GFS and Euro 12z runs. It is east based, but retrograding to the West. It doesn't take much imagination to see a full latitude trough developing over NA between the Aleutian and NA ridges. A true block w precedent.

Down to 6 here this Morning. 4 at Daughters house down in a Valley. Saw couple 2 and 3 degree's on Couple Weather Station's in the in the County.

Really no chances until maybe 12/23. Gotta hope we get a shortwave to run into the confluence which seems to be pretty stout on the ensembles…so there’s a good chance we’re at least seasonably cold during that period if not colder. But the question is whether we can get a system to fly around that ridge in the center of the country in time.

It's a crapshoot currently in my opinion.

Yeah. If your thing is just to have snowstorms then you’re almost better off hoping for above normal temps in the dead of winter.

Out at Bacon Ridge, love that area. And yes, the snow line can be very pronounced. I've seen Trace to 2" within 30 feet vertical.

EPS is pretty active after the 22nd or so... there will be chances but it's shut the blinds for the next week

Yeah, we need those Features Opposite of where they are. Hopefully guidance is off with that Depiction but, looks pretty likely until Blocking sets up late Month or those features shift.

My thoughts exactly and I talked with Ray about this very subject.

12z GFS op tries to give everyone a snow, or snow to ice event on 12/23.

Absolutely possible. The 12/14 event was a highly elevation dependent event.

Going to try to ask a legitimate question without getting yelled at… is it possible you live in a local snow hole? Like… yes you have longitude compared to rest of SNE but your latitude negates it? Perhaps you’re just far enough east that you will dance with the mix line in any event without a parked HP. For SWFEs, you’re just far enough northeast that it takes forever for it to start precipitating and the warm tongue is always closer than it seems. For legit coastals with a parked HP, the coastal front parks well to your east, but you’re in a subsidence zone between CF and next band. I don’t have evidence to support these other than I’ve started picking up and making mental note of them over the years for the Merrimack Valley.

Just carrying on there man. Yeah, that's been the fault during the entire cold period overall. Southern Virginia from about Lebanon Eastward to Va Beach have had a great Stretch with plenty of Snow.

I'm out here hiking in Crownsville. I can't tell if im tripping or what. I hiked from 180' elevation to 30' elevation and I swear there's more snow at 180. Like an inch more. Is that possible? At higher elevation it could, but here?

This is a safe for work site, sir! Weather repaired : I am freezing today. I can’t warm up.

No that's not it. First for example the Euro crushes us. Anyone believe it here. Not talking about the other world. As soon as you can you get on a negative roll. Maybe that's who you like to be but honestly Brett posting the next ten days is crap based on OP GFS is silly. Same as close the shades til after Christmas. We all who love winter want 2015 to walk in the door but reality strikes. Just saying this, scientifically this pattern could be shit or it could explode. Tons of cold air source but...At any rate it will be interesting.

What's the thinking for the week to 10 days ahead for us mountain folk? Hope we don't get too too warm although I'm not disappointed we won't go through what we did last night for a while.

If these clouds can stay in place for another hour to hour and a half I might manage sub-25° high temperature.

This illustrates beautifully. While using OP at this time range isn't particularly great, I do think there is some value in assessing how the OP is handing the overall evolution of the pattern during that time frame. In doing this, you can see there has been a tendency to somewhat compress the heights a bit and there is also some pretty strong vort maxes modeled...these would further help to flatten that flow out a bit. That look on the ensembles screams some sort of storm potential. I think that period through the first week of January is shaping up to be active.

Cloudy here, but looks like they dry up as it moves east?

This is the internet in a nutshell with all topics. Everything is wrong all the time crowd vs everything is great all the time crowd. Most of us fall on a spectrum of that but there are clear tendencies.

Mele Kalikimauka it's gonna be a warm Christmas! Wake me up for the first tornado watch.

Weenies up the middle (hiney)?