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Ha! It was a poor attempt at humor. When we're in the middle of a 55-60 degree stretch in Jan with hopeless D10+ progs, SSW talk enters the chat like clockwork. And it never amounts to much lolol. Imho, some winters just want to work and others don't no matter what. Wasted blocking and random storms in the middle of futile indices are as common as typical/predictable stuff that produces. The early signs of the upcoming winter are promising. I think we can all agree on that. I've suspected we're on the front side of a longer duration blocking cycle for a couple of years now. Get things right in the AO/NAO region for the balance of winter and a ratter is prob off the table. Big winters outside of mod ninos are notoriously hard to predict. 13-14 was pessimistic leading in and we all fondly remember that one. I certainly didn't see it coming in Nov. The early Dec storm was a signal but then it got crazy warm before legit winter set in for 3 straight months. Any event during the first half of Dec is usually a reliable sign of an "acceptable" winter. So far it looks pretty good in general for that this year. Time will tell as always

Canaan Resort reporting 14”.

Totally wrong

Giddy up.

Yeah, people forget about that cool down in the last third of March 2011. Turned a solidly positive temperature departure to a near normal. I feel like the previous winter (2009-10) was more abrupt. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow by February 10, and the snow just stopped. The change was so dramatic, to the point there was record 90-degree heat during the first week of April. It's amazing, though, how so much snow was able to fall in such a short time during those 2 winters. And in 2 very different ENSO states (2009-10 being a strong el nino, and 2010-11 being a strong la nina).

I had a Snapchat from one of my friends going deer hunting in Hamilton NC and it looked like an inch. Side roads were covered too. They must’ve gotten under some rates

Very light dusting in the pre-dawn hours, gave a comical look to all the oak leaves in the yard as they were the only things holding snow. Flurries now, 31.3F wind ramping up.

Before the high clouds move in, here is a a tru color GOES pic of the area: High Knob snow shadow in effect:

Nah, warmth confirmed by the pope

Over my way it began when it stopped for you all. Snowiest February on record and the Oklahoma state record coldest temperature.

Some pics form yesterday: Convective cloud tops: Snow on blossoms: Snow on kudzu: Probably about half an inch total IMBY:

Here in NJ, after Jan, I got 5.25" total. Dec and Jan I got 55", so 60.25" total. We were on our way to breaking the 95/96 winter then it pretty much did stop.

Low of 30. It is cold out there with the wind. Love hearing all these first flake tales. #WinterIsComing

Flakes were in the air a couple of hours ago here, first snow of the year! If the spine of the Green Mountains doesn't block all of what is showing now on radar, we're in for some more proper snow showers.

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina.

Yeah, blocked early then becomes unblocked later today.

For you Iguana

Although the chances of a KU are inherently lower in a Niña with a less active subtropical jet, we've seen some big ones in Niña winters such as 1996 and, a few years ago, Feb 2021. My biggest concern for this winter is a relentless Pac Jet which is helping to push along this brief cold snap this week. We had a perfectly timed rossby wave break that dislodged a piece of the Polar Vortex southward into the Eastern US, amplified by a peaking +PNA ridge. But too much energy crashing into the west coast is keeping the flow too fast, so this deep trough is unable to deepen and turn negative as the ridge out west breaks down quickly. I feel like that will be a theme this winter... The Western ridge breaking down too soon. I hope I'm wrong though! I'm favoring a near-normal snowfall year for Philly which will feel well above average compared to recent years.

Thank you everyone, nerve wracking for sure.

took in the plants for no reason

Whenever we grade this winter in March 2026, we must not forget snowfall on the Outer Banks in early November.

I'm happy to learn that she's ok.

Possibly…was just pointing out that there’s been some events since Isaias…although we are due, and I think we see some action starting in a few weeks.