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  2. mitchnick
    Yet, and this may have already been mentioned, most modeling shows the upcoming MJO having an affinity for the Maritime Continent. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html
  3. Mrs.J
    Well ours is from a FiberOptics company digging trenches in our yard in January to lay cable. And then just dumping the clay they dig up putting seed and straw down as if that would grow back. It was a neighborhood wide project and they chose for whatever reason not to use the easement.
  4. annunciated
    At that point further north, you're essentially trading cold(er) air for potential improvements in moisture, if perhaps a greater risk for ice. In my opinion, that could cancel out the warmth if not add to the snow total average if you can get a good background pattern instead of the polar jet constantly lagging back into Canada.
  5. Mrs.J
    Absolutely pouring here.
  6. annunciated
    Good thing NA is on the verge of its cooling-off phase here in the troposphere; it'll be good to see the STJ start to go in a month or two as that temp. gradient becomes apparent
  7. EasternLI
    That's quite impressive looking too! I'm not quite sure what to expect with this thing other than a powerhouse STJ. It's unprecedented in many ways. I'm having fun just monitoring it. Tons of interesting aspects. Really fascinating event.
  8. MarcmmKU
    Worth nothing that if you get far enough north and or high enough in elevation in new england the correlation between cold and snow becomes almost nil. The climo there is cold enough that a 5-6 F + winter does not meaningfully affect snow odds. If you plot snowfall versus temp for a place like Stowe VT it will essentially be a random scatterplot with no correlation.
  9. Kleimax
    Seems like some rotation on that one moving north out of Columbia
  10. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  11. FXWX
    Just be clear... Are you saying Wiz is in correct in his analysis of what the parameters will look like overhead from late tonight through tomorrow? Or are you saying you can see what he's looking at but they won't produce the outcome he is expecting?
  12. H2O
    TS Lee vibes
  13. H2O
    pouring rains. almost 1" in the last 30-40 min
  14. powderfreak
    Our standards seem to be getting high if 1.5” of rain is the barometer of worthy rain. A half inch will soak in nicely.
  15. mitchnick
    Cfs2 has been hitting hard in October for a while. Considering how far away we are from October, it might be the biggest yet if correct. But is that signaling the big finale? Idk. Just wondering based on an apparent November forecast peak.
  16. dendrite
    81.6/71 Dewtylicious
  17. ChescoWx
    Below is the Chester County PA Climate Summary for July 2026. We finished the month with an average temperature of 75.0 this is 0.8 degrees below normal our average rainfall across the county was 4.36". This was our "chilliest" July since the 74.9 in 2021. Overall we finished as the 61st warmest and 66th driest July over the last 134 years. Our warmest July was the 78.7 in 1999 our coolest July was back in 2009 with an average temperature of only 70.9 degrees. Our wettest on average was the 11.64" average across the county way back in 1919. The dryest on average July was the scant 0.68" average back in 1944. Overall through the first 7 months of 2026 we have an average temperature to date of 51.9 degrees this is 0.5 degrees below the average over the last 30 years and the 61st warmest first 7 months since records began in 1893.
  18. ChescoWx
    Below is the Chester County PA Climate Summary for July 2026. We finished the month with an average temperature of 75.0 this is 0.8 degrees below normal our average rainfall across the county was 4.36". This was our "chilliest" July since the 74.9 in 2021. Overall we finished as the 61st warmest and 66th driest July over the last 134 years. Our warmest July was the 78.7 in 1999 our coolest July was back in 2009 with an average temperature of only 70.9 degrees. Our wettest on average was the 11.64" average across the county way back in 1919. The dryest on average July was the scant 0.68" average back in 1944. Overall through the first 7 months of 2026 we have an average temperature to date of 51.9 degrees this is 0.5 degrees below the average over the last 30 years and the 61st warmest first 7 months since records began in 1893.
  19. Cobalt
    You've done this for every winter. Nino, Nina, doesn't matter, you call for record warmth. Your multiple calls for a record warm winter in the East for 2024-25 and 2025-26 (easily accessible receipts) failed miserably. Neither you nor snowman19 should be patting yourselves on the back for being on the record warm train this winter when everything points towards it. It's like predicting that Shaq will miss a free throw and then being impressed with your clairvoyance when it happens.
  20. wawarriors4
    Picked up 1.76” of rain between 11:00-1:00 today. Now it’s just gross as the sun comes out. 78/76, Soupy
  21. SnowenOutThere
    SPC mesoanalysis shows a tongue of moisture streaming directly off the Atlantic from South Carolina. Thanks to insane dew points our cape values are at 2500+. Vis sat shows some clearing behind the current line moving through which might act as a bit of an instigator too. Almost feels like a tropical system with the rotating bands of showers forming from the south. Interestingly, the low level shear also is somewhat reminiscent of a tropical cyclone.
  22. GaWx
    Today’s SOI rose to ~-8, the highest in a month, from ~-22 yesterday due to a sharp increase in pressure at Tahiti. However, Tahiti has most likely about peaked and it will be falling back noticeably within the next few days. Meanwhile, Darwin’s pressure looks to be higher tomorrow than today. Thus, I’m expecting another -SOI tomorrow, which would make it 85 straight -SOI days vs the record back to 1991 of 100 (set in 1998). Darwin should peak tomorrow followed by a drop for 2-3 days. But with Tahiti’s concurrent fall during that period, I’m thinking the -SOI streak will likely continue for at least the next few days and likely make it to at least 90 days.
  23. frd
    Tomatoes. eggplants, peppers and squash all doing great so far. I keep pruning the tomatoe suckers and its working out wonderfully. The lawn soil moisture % is very good, but the heat is preventing it from looking better. Last August trended drier as the month went on, I had a 34 % soil moisture near August 1 st and then it steadily declined to about 19 % by Sept 1 st. Maybe this August will be different.
  24. EasternLI
    Yes, and it's looking like a big one too as the MJO swings back through again.
  25. BlizzardNole
    85/76 now feeling like a sauna. Radar looks good and the precip disco is interesting with the discussion of big rainers
  26. high risk
    As some of you have noted, there is absolutely low level shear today, and the low LCLs also suggest that a brief tornado or two is possible. The overall strength of the wind fields probably doesn't support a more significant threat, but I would not be surprised to see a few tornado warnings.
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