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Yep...full-on nina! Wouldn't surprise me if folks northeast of here get their first 1-2 footer of the decade this winter. Feels like we haven't seen a Miller of any type since before the pandemic

It is comical looking over this board for a rainstorm. I cannot wait until Winter.

Take what you can get.

I am like 5 miles from the red bullseye in Loudoun! LOL! What an odd model depiction.. I suspect there should be a lot more smoothing than that

i just don't know. not a fan of all that energy in the west

Additional infro on the Oct 10 1979 storm / cold The record earliest snowstorm for Washington, DC. --- Washington's earliest measurable snowfall occurred on October 10, 1979. National Airport reported only 0.3 inches of snow; however, much heavier snow fell to the west of Washington causing significant tree damage in the mountains of Virginia. The tree damage was especially severe because the trees had not yet lost their leaves, allowing huge amounts of snow to accumulate on the branches. The storm began on October 9th when a low- pressure area moved east through New York state and Massachusetts. A storm blanketed Worcester, MA with 7.5 inches of snow, a record snowfall total for so early in the season for that location. Washington was in the warm sector of the storm and temperatures topped out in the low '70's before the trailing cold front swept through during the late afternoon. During the nighttime hours, unseasonably cold air surged down the East Coast. As cold air invaded the D.C. area, a second storm center took shape over the Carolinas. A chilly rain broke out that evening and continued all night. By midnight, the temperature had fallen to 50 degrees F. The relentless drop of the mercury continued during the pre-dawn hours and many people in the northern and western suburbs awoke to see snow falling. During the early morning a burst of 1 - 3 inches of snow fell in central and northern Montgomery County and a coating of snow accumulated in Fairfax and lower Montgomery County. The precipitation tapers off in all sections between 7 and 9 A.M. but by 10:00 A.M. a new band of heavy snow broke out this time centering its fury on the southern half of the metropolitan area. Huge snowflakes were accompanied by lightning and thunder. By noon, the worst was over and the snow tapered off. During the second burst 3 inches of snow fell in the central and southern parts of the region. A snowfall maximum of 3.0 inches was centered in Fairfax County. Aside from the October 10, 1979 storm, there have been only two measurable October snows on record in Washington. Those took place October 19, 1940 with 1.5 inches and October 30, 1925 with 2.2 inches, the greatest snow in October. (p. 86-87 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) NYC 1979 October 10 47 37 0.85 0.0 October 11 50 37 0.00 0.0 Of interest is the rapid turn around later in Oct 1979 NYC 1979 October 20 76 61 0.00 0.0 October 21 80 64 0.00 0.0 October 22 88 67 0.00 0.0 October 23 78 67 0.00 0.0

From hard freeze to OBX. Wind is steady out of the east with blowing sand on the dunes. Ocean is rough.

This just giving me a headache at this point jeez

Caving to Euro after all the bashing of the Euro here by the Wolf of Weather

Mosquitoes come out in November still lol. Although a hard freeze will kill them off somewhat. 37 here, but frosty down the hill.

Nothing new with those bastards after a hard freeze. Its panic time

MPM, is that you?

Good job NHC for classifying this STS. It kinda reminds me of the Vince situation, if it looks like it, it probably is…

Weaker

Seems like whenever we have a phase involved between multiple vorts the short term trend is more SE instead of NW. The actual phasing usually is slower than forecast. So this can lead to multiple lows with the easterly one grabbing more moisture. The older runs were consolidated and west with a single low instead of more strung out energy like today.

It’s funny looking at Karen on the NHC page almost off the map

It's over Actually per the GFS I'm just gonna get in my kayak and paddle out into the middle of the bay to experience some heavy rain.

Not really, that was a clipper/mauler from Canada that redeveloped off the coast. It did crush NE but hit most of the coast

yeah ...and so their flyin' around cold addled with their stingers stuck projected infinitum, too

Yep my bad Meant Commanders Bears ,,,,,,,,,,either way they are playing in Washington

40 here on my side of Haywood.

CMC is a total snoozefest.

Sunny and 61, nice fall day. I'm going to enjoy before we go into three days of dreariness which produces about 0.15 of rainfall.

GFS is really nasty for the Jersey Shore. Doesn't look like a whole lot around here besides rain and some wind.

WB 12Z GFS...beggars can't be choosy, I'll take it.