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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SnowenOutThere replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Isn't this blatantly wrong? It's the HRRR that always has the overmixing problem, just in the past couple setups the soundings from the Nam may show 3000 CAPE while HRRR is out with 1000 or less. This is a good reminder that AI is bullshit; as in it is extremely confident but has no actual checks on if it is true which is my personal definition of bullshit. It always sounds "correct" until it is your field of expertise you ask it on. -
More images coming through the satellite
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Could you also call my county rec program and get them to cancel softball tomorrow night lol
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It shunts the 200+ near surface smoke off to our east (Capeland) so we get values around 100. Talked to the team reps for my swim team and fought to get practices reduced from 1 hour to 45 minutes for age groups tomorrow. My atmosphere course last fall really emphasized how pm is not something you want to play around with when it comes to nearly any exposure. It's the day before divisionals so we're tapering anyways.
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yeah smoke really flexing on cook co now
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It's pretty smoky locally. My throat feels scratchy.
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1SM FU VV020 here at ORD currently.
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GOES East updating. Will take a few hours for animations to populate.
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It comes back Saturday maybe?
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89 / 70 grey sky smoke / clouds - clouds / smoke - just smoke / mostly clouds TBD once satellite is back.
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Is that the near surface smoke? Yuck
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Heat, humidity, bugs and smoke. Soak it all in.
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today much better, currently at 5 KW, was about 1 KW yesterday at this time -
18z HRRR continues to target 21-23z for areas east of ORH for thicker smoke It's definitely ticking thicker outside Probably will be more like the milky haze we had Tuesday where you can actually look at the sun, and it gets deep red as it sets... not the apocalyptic yellow we had Wednesday where you can't even see the sun -
I’ve been using surface viz as a proxy for how it will seem at the ground level, but yeah, it is going to be smoky in the column.
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Looks like the smoke's going to stick around for Detroit much of the day on Friday as well...
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You don't want what is just north of you
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We're right on the southern edge of the smoke. AQI has been in the 100's all day. Slowly getting worse. I wasn't able to smell anything in the smoke this morning, but getting a faint hint of something this afternoon.
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88 today. Would take this smoke over rain for Saturday
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AQI numbers are slowly starting to rise throughout the whole area..... at work in Scarsdale it was 120 about 20 minutes ago now up to 133-135.
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That magenta and deep red air quality is edging closer.
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Tomorrow is our day.
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The very bad air is into Cleveland lotta AQIs 400-700 I’m seeing, hopefully it stops bleeding southeast towards us.
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It’s moving in from the nw to se
