All Activity

Drier and Warmer weather for an extended period likely to arrive just in time for Mother's Day (May 11th).

Normally I wouldn't post these on marginal days like today and yesterday but given the slow and training nature of this system and drought conditions I have decided to. Keep I'm mind that both yesterday and today have less then a 5% risk of anyone in CPA seeing severe weatherat there local. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley.

early summery period may have been delayed, but denied. I'm all in.

The only two summers in the 1970s that jump out at me for heat were 1973 and 1977. Before then, our historically hot summers occurred in an 11 year cycle (1944, 1955, 1966.) 1977 still has our hottest two week stretch on record. Of course the 1980s and 1990s were much hotter, 1980 got things started with a historic CONUS heatwave. If I remember correctly the following summers were very hot: 1980, 1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010-2013 Actually that 11 year solar cycle has still prevailed for summer heat, with a few other years thrown in. Map these years for summer heat: 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010. I think that pattern was broken in 2021 when we didn't have that kind of heat.

The climate models were wrong, they actually predicted an average of 3 100 degrees annually for NYC by 2045 and I just don't see that happening.

it's going to change the Monsoon season in Asia that's for sure, computer simulations show it moving south with SO2 being added to the atmosphere.

That would be an interesting twist, use fusion to both replace fossil fuels and remove carbon from the air (and also from the water, I see that is already underway-- carbon in the water leads to coral acidification so it's important to remove.) We'll also be removing some water vapor from the atmosphere (another greenhouse gas) and use that water vapor to make drinking water for developing nations. This is also important, as water vapor is as much of a villain as carbon dioxide is.

weather looks incredible for being out and about in the city but cosign the hope for a return to more active weather later in the month for sure

After a lull…more convection firing in SE CT. Let’s get ditty more rain. I want that giant oak complex getting swallowed by a sinkhole.

Got saved by the final batch. 1.82” in May so far.

So just another day in Norwell?

The Euro has two more rainy cutoffs after this one the next few weeks. The next once comes through later in the week. Then another one before the 15th. It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about a wet summer for us. As it would keep the strongest heat out West where the drought feedback really kicks in.

Today's NWS forecast discussion , and spc discussion on th Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 509 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Multi-day stretch of wet weather continues into late week * A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible this afternoon across east-central PA with localized downpours * Eventual breakdown of the stagnant/repeat wet pattern signals improving conditions for Mother`s Day Weekend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Training rain bands continue to track north-south across the Susquehanna Valley near the occluded frontal zone early this morning. MRMS data indicates hourly rain rates have leveled off quite a bit from last night at <0.50 inch/hr. Noticeably cooler and drier air has arrived in clear slot behind the front with areas of locally dense fog across the Laurel Highlands and south central ridges. The closed upper low responsible for the recent multi-day stretch of wet weather throughout most of CPA will begin to unravel and lift to the northeast into New England by 12Z Wed. Despite its pending departure, it will help to trigger another round of rain/showers and a few thunderstorms ramping up through peak heating. Hires guidance focuses isolated to scattered convection along the occluded front over east central PA this afternoon and early evening. Low-level convergence along the front and large-scale ascent associated with the 500mb low will combine with 500-1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, robust deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates to support a marginal wind damage/hail threat. Although PWs are on the decline, locally heavy north-south training downpours on low FFGs will also support the potential for isolated instances of flooding especially in areas where soils have been substantially saturated. Trailing shortwave energy on the backside of the departing upper low should maintain showers into tonight particularly over the southern tier of CPA before POPs gradually decrease into early Wednesday morning. Highs will be +/- 5 degrees either side of early May climo with cooler conditions (60-65F maxT) in the western Alleghenies and milder temps (65-75F) throughout the Susquehanna Valley or ahead of the occluded front. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A brief respite or lull in the frequent rain showers is expected into midweek as the upper low continues to pull away from the region. We still can`t rule out a few showers especially across the northern mtns Wednesday PM - but on the margin it should be drier vs. recent days. Highs trend a bit warmer on balance with daytime maxes in the 65-75F range. The lull in the precip will be short-lived with yet another upper trough fcst to close off over PA by Thursday night. Rain showers and a few t-storms are likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with ensemble data placing max POPs across the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Temp trends for Thursday should be flat to down day over day with the most noticeable change in the northern tier with highs falling back into the 50s followed by mins in the 35-40F range Thursday night. The full discussion is in the link. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Low of 61 and .03” of rain mainly from a brief afternoon shower yesterday, as most everything missed our area just to the west. I expect more widespread coverage over my area later today into tonight.

1.59” yesterday and last evening 2.09” for the event

1.70

I’m starting to wonder if we see a weak La Niña develop. I’ve been saying cold-neutral and I still think that’s the favored outcome but the door seems to be opening for a possible weak Nina to develop this summer/fall. It appears a strong -IOD is taking shape, that, along with a continued -PDO, -PMM and the surface/subsurface/trade wind/SOI trends are seemingly opening the door for a possible weak Niña

Just picked up 0.13 in a quick, heavy shower.

Picked up 0.47” yesterday for a 4 day total of 1.81”

I say if it’s gonna rain, let it pour baby. I want to see crocodiles and hippos floating down my street with my fat neighbor floating by on his raft yelling obscenities at me while I take another sip of my mudslide and dismissively tip my glass at him. Just imagine the madness!

.10” from last night and .96” total so far.

The warm season precip king of SNE. Meanwhile somewhat stein here but it’s been wet and ocnl drizzle/showers. Looks like a slug later today and then more Friday.

Days and days.....

2.32” here since Friday.

At least you got something. My area had clouds with scattered sprinkles. Another boring non event to add to the drought pile.