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Today's the day where some wicked storm fires up and we see a top to 45-50,000 ft.

Don’t want to get too far off topic (spoiler I did, skip now if you hate this stuff) but I agree skepticism is valuable, the backbone of science, but like any tool can be used to mislead or misapplied. Productive AGW debate lives in the averages, not in the extremes, trying to link a single extreme event seems like it will fail from the onset based on the required burden of scientific proof. But at the same time it’s equally as disingenuous to point at those people and question the whole notion. You’re always going to have weenies reporting erroneous snow reports from Lunenburg that tack on 4 extra inches. Who doesn’t love 4 more inches… of snow. Or a 133 HI in New Jersey. Or sensor errors. Or changes in local environment. All of which make comparing specific information today to the past difficult, and merit discussion, but not throwing the baby out with the bathwater. The use of end of the world narrative is similar in my opinion, the goal is to avoid a measured middle ground. There’s a lot of middle ground between it doesn’t matter and end of the world. Impacts could be gradual compared to an individual’s timeline, but time is relative. If a coastal area of millions and its associated infrastructure slowly becomes uninhabitable in a century, that’s a big deal, but not for everyone living now. That scenario still causes a significant amount of disruption and potential suffering. Discussions on how to prepare/ advances in the ability to quickly establish/increase infrastructure in the event of mass migration are still fruitful. This is just one aspect, crop failures, ecosystem disruption, etc. There is potential for suffering, stagnating or reversing/wiping out growth through all of these events without it being the end of civilization. There are lots of examples through history, too, of near total and local scale civilization collapse. It’s part of reality. Could focusing the discussion on how end of the world calls are absurd/fear mongering, instead of what can be done about the million other possibilities, be a ploy to polarize to the point nothing is done outside of elite circles? Which is the radical flip side of skepticism, deliberate paralyzing the masses through skepticism/narrative overload/polarization so nature takes its course outside of special enclaves. Anyway, way off topic and descended into movie plot territory. Going back to lurking/waiting for another 6/1/11, enjoying the last of the heat, and tracking the upcoming heavy rain potential. Happy 4th!

June 2026 PDO: -1.75 AMJ 2026 ONI: 1.0 AMJ 2026 RONI: 0.5

Not Good - especially for areas with no power now

Crazy weather….As Joe said we set/tied another record. That’s 2 days in a row we hit 100 and entered the record book. We had a pop up thunderstorm about 2:00 pm with loud thunder and picked up 01” as soon as the rain hit the pavement it dried right up. Last night I thought the radar was looking good but must have dried up. Looked like State College got a storm,anybody know how much rain they ended up getting? The skies reminded me of my childhood. Look up at the sky and there would be what we would call heat lightening and it was constant. Not sure what the term is? But it was a pretty nice fireworks show! Happy 4 th of July to everyone!

If you want a giggle - look at the NCAR AI site - https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ Looks like a nuke went off. Seems NCAR and CSU think today is the big show and tomorrow still a threat but less so. But that could just be since day 1 is here and now, and day 2 still has some uncertainty.

I’d be more tolerant of opposing opinions if the question was “what should we do about it?” There are serious policy questions about the impacts on society (including costs) of transitioning to low-carbon energy. If the debate was cost vs benefit, that is an extremely healthy and useful discussion.

4-6” is your call. Fingers crossed . I’ll be happy with 1”

Just rain dammit

I was fairly surprised there wasn't one yet - but I guess owing to the uncertainty in how robust the storms will be.

No rain here but the front cooled us off a bit. Much better out this morning than last, got down to 76 and now I’m at 80 with dew point 70. Yesterday at this time it was already 87

I’m just busting. I do think the main axis of 2+” remains south.

Thanks for changing the subject lol. Today has the big storm vibe. It was lacking the past two days. Today feels different. LFG! Happy 4th to everyone. Hopefully storms happen between plans.

I could see a CIG1 appear in the 1300z SPC OTLK or the 1630z one

Are you really that dry? We have standing water in some spots.

The correctional vector always points away from Tolland in the summer, but toward it in the winter. Funny how that happens.

Just showers? How much for Hartford?

This is actually the heaviest rainfall signal that we have seen from the models in quite some time.

It’s weak wave along a boundary . Usually south

45% wind today for the I-95 corridor and thus an enhanced wind risk. Impressive EML pushing into us. Someone is going to get a solid storm.

Kind of a strong smell of smoke out there this morning.

I really hope you are correct with your forecast . I remain highly skeptical of that much rain over a large area. I can think of a bunch of scenarios over the years modeled like this.. and that’s not how it ended .

The bolded is certainly impressive, and surprising.

These always trend north