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Glad to see some LES lottery winners! Only about a half inch here, but may briefly get a piece of that band before it dissipates / drifts north.

Looking longer term, don't like the trend of last few runs. The ops models are now showing great lakes cutters around day 10. Seems as soon as people start talking up the big snow chances the models go to pot...

Multiple days of good trends to a February 2021 redux in the blink of an eye.

Wind continues west 25-35 mph occasionally gusting to 40 mph. Temperature: 34f humidity: 42% dewpoint: 13f Well the big Great Lakes storm now resides blocked just north and northeast of the Great Lakes. I believe this feature is basically as I said the other day realigning our pattern in the eastern portion of the United States This Great Lakes southern Canadian storm will unravel in time and when that happens my thinking is a west to west southwesterly flow should resume and over time boot out the coldest air opening the door for wet events from the west and southwest overall rather than snow events. I also think we see the SE ridge back for a time. I am not saying no more snow this year, but I am also not buying all the hype that’s on social media about giant snowstorms January 4th to 12th timeframe. (Maybe I’m doing reverse psychology, but I don’t think so. I’ve seen this before) Next to track in the immediate future light snow / flurries New Years Eve to New Year’s Day dusting to 0.5” totals a lucky soul sees 1 inch, with embedded disturbance off the Great Lakes pinwheeling around the big low in southern Canada north of the Great Lakes. See if that disturbance can try to turn the corner but I don’t see that right now probably just passes through heads eastward.

I don't understand why so many mets expect a good pattern while the Gulf of Alaska has a cold pool along with a negative PNA.

Only tried once, Jan 2008 at Randolph, a half-dozen miles downstream from AUG. The 4 of us caught a few tommycod but nothing else. A kid about 10-y.o. was showing everyone a nice smelt. Might've been the only one caught among the 20+ occupied shacks.

The January 26-27, 2011 snowstorm compares. That was an overnight snow, but I remember the intense thunder snow keeping me awake.

It’s almost like Tyohoon Tip got ahold of my phone and penned up a Mark Twain diatribe

Solid 3 inches here at 4650 on Beech. Nice surprise amount!

This sums up yet another winter here....

Yep, 00-01 was probably a tough one there. The big March 2001 blizzard was also huge just a few miles inland and fairly pedestrian in the city if I remember right.

Rut ro. Time to get you some Woolfy fangs.

It's interesting how this kind of experienced assessment seems to be glossed over or simply ignored. Maybe it's easier to latch onto a "pattern is crap", "warm and dry for the next two weeks", or "worst kind of weather you can get" statement with a quick glance at the models. The quote above sounds reasonable and meaningfully thought out. Time will tell how it all plays out over the next few days.

Models punting the originally expected "good pattern" through first week of January. Onto the next week, and the next week, and I bet the week after that. Mild and warmth returns to most of CONUS except northeast starting next week. No sustained cold or snow for most of country. We might remain cold, but it'll be hard to snow with such persistent warm all around. Terrible look

I get that...I think it's wrong. It doesn't have to mean a blizzard...all I am saying is that I'm confident January is +PNA in the mean....maybe it not positioned properly, etc....but it won't be a -PNA month.

Yup. Winds have been crazy here. Snowpack looks like salt & pepper do to the branch debris. Lost power for 2hrs last night do to the wind.

Everyone's focusing too much on the subtle changes of the different model runs. The general rule of thumb is the step down to a colder pattern as a whole. There's too much what this model says today and what that model says tomorrow. It has been stepping this way for quite some time. It's like chaos in here LOL. As they say, TO MANY COOKS IN THE KITCHEN!!

Legit trauma from 12/30/2000 in Boston. went from 9-14" to 0.0. Only bust I can recall in my life that left bare ground after a high end WSW. if you drove West on the Mass Pike it was 10" by Rt 95/128.

Mid January I think that will change...

Swift kick in the nuts on the 12z Op GFS, Follow the ensembles.

Only a tenth of graupel, but it made the porch steps accessible without sprinkling ashes. Put most of the 5-gallons of the stuff on the driveway as water was oozing from the mess as the frozen precip landed. (Otherwise the mail carrier might not hazard to try.) Had 10" pack at 7 yesterday but 0.2" ZR and 0.5" of 32 (plus a tiny fraction) RA left us at the pre-storm 8". But it's a more bulletproof 8" now. Total precip 1.08". Family on the way south, roads are decent. I hope my son-in-law can send some videos of the Saturday sledding party. The audio is hilarious.

Yes and this is why seasonal forecasts that simply bias warm every single season are right enough to keep their jobs. Write of a bunch of baloney about why what enso pattern and weather this and that will cause warm conditions (barely mention climate) and get that champagne ready for the false positive. If anything the signals of old have decayed in value - why bother. studies show that if people had a chance to pick heads or tails with money at stake using a coin weighted 60% tails, some people, in fact most, pick heads from time to time. Going colder is a losing bet anyway just let’s get attribution right in a couple words. You’ll go broke banking cold.

I just spent time putting together a post that explains ... the recent anticipated emergence of the positive PNA is now in question. Paraphrase: the ensembles means, all three sources, are moving the breakdown of the -WPO/hyprid stuck pattern of the last several weeks, ...more toward a -EPO variant, more so than a +PNA. That's a change, because the the latter pattern type was signaled for awhile. As an aside, the EPO is not very well correlated to the PNA on the daily. It is actually correlated to a positive PNA with time lag... So that would imply later on... pushing a +PNA out to latter month. There's uncertainly because of the newness of all this. This was/is based upon rather abrupt changes that arrived slowly over the last 2 days in the GEFs, but then overnight last night, the GEFs surged into this new paradigm ( shown with charts in that post), and it is being joined by the others... etc. It is inherently a continuity break so - we have to give it some modeling cycles.

I have had little faith in any type of good pattern. If we get something it’s going to be some wave that just pops up in the mid pattern and isn’t that significant but might produce a 2-4” event or something.