Welcome to American Weather
  • Announcements

    • Wow

      BOARD UPGRADE   07/13/2016

      As you have noticed, the board has been given a major upgrade.  There are still currently a lot of processes running in the background to complete the upgrade so expect some slow periods.  If you come across any errors, please feel free to post in the Forum Info forum to let us know.  IMPORTANT: YOU MUST LOGIN WITH YOUR DISPLAY NAME.  LOGIN NAMES ARE NO LONGER USED TO LOGIN. Thanks for your patience today!
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Midlo Snow Maker

January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

1,752 posts in this topic

It dosent mean we stay warm either. Models shows central and west getting first then shifting east by jan 20

 

I agree it doesn;t mean we stay warm.  The models do appear to be forecasting cross polar flow that could give us shots of cold and might even bring arctic air into the country but it looks like that cold will initially be focused west of us. I' have not canceled winter but a warm spell through Jan 20th would be wasting quite a bit of winter.  My comment about the Stratospheric warming event was made because last year many tried wrongly to play it to get us a winter-like pattern change that never made it to this side of the world.  I'm still betting on Matt's forecast though I admit ot no skill beyond 2 weeks.   That's why I've limited my discussion on CWG to that time range. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was just going to post something similar. From mid-Jan to mid-Feb a slightly below normal airmass gets the job done. The real fun with arctic air happens when it invades us behind a big miller A. Snow melting away a couple days after a storm sucks. I think 02-03 was the last time we had a real lasting snowpack. Even 09-10 melted kinda quick considering we got like 10 feet of snow.

We don't even have to have bitter cold to keep snow. Winchester still has complete snow cover, and has had it since Christmas Eve. It has not been cold by most standards. Probably still an avg of about 3-4 everywhere.

So I'm with you and Ji on this. Keep a trough axis about?????.........say????.....Indiana?? Let our storms ride up the east side and keep a supply of cold air behind them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you're goin to max snow cover potential now is the time to do it. sun angle is right around the corner.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
January 11-12 has potential though it is low. We might be able to get a serviceable air mass in advance of the front and /or something lagging and developing along it. Doesn't look like anything before then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We don't even have to have bitter cold to keep snow. Winchester still has complete snow cover, and has had it since Christmas Eve. It has not been cold by most standards. Probably still an avg of about 3-4 everywhere.

So I'm with you and Ji on this. Keep a trough axis about?????.........say????.....Indiana?? Let our storms ride up the east side and keep a supply of cold air behind them.

 

The beauty of snow within several weeks either side of the solstice.  By late Jan, though, that changes rapidly.  Demoralizing to watch snow melt in sun-soaked areas with a temp of 28F, or snow falling mid-day and melting on contact with dark surfaces

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was just going to post something similar. From mid-Jan to mid-Feb a slightly below normal airmass gets the job done. The real fun with arctic air happens when it invades us behind a big miller A. Snow melting away a couple days after a storm sucks. I think 02-03 was the last time we had a real lasting snowpack. Even 09-10 melted kinda quick considering we got like 10 feet of snow. 

 

Huh? We had 1" on ground for 71+ days in 09-10 with two stretches of 30+ consecutive and I think you north and east had more fall than me!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Huh? We had 1" on ground for 71+ days in 09-10 with two stretches of 30+ consecutive and I think you north and east had more fall than me!

 

No way that happened here.  We had snow on Dec 5 that was gone within a couple days, and  a lot of snow on Dec 19 that was washed away by the Dec 25/26 rainstorm.  Bare ground until the Jan 30 storm which ushered in the snowpack until late Feb.  Though snow piles persisted through much of March, the snow cover didn't even last 30 consecutive days IMBY.  We mainly missed the Feb 10 storm, and despite below average temps through most of Feb, the sun and wind did thier dirty work on the snowpack.

 

I think your location has a lot of elevation compared to us.  I see that your current temp is 21F, while it is 28 here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Huh? We had 1" on ground for 71+ days in 09-10 with two stretches of 30+ consecutive and I think you north and east had more fall than me!

 

December storm got washed away pretty bad before the end of the month. It poured rain on xmas. End of Jan - the 2 Feb storms was unreal but winter flipped like a switch shortly after. Considering how much snow it was it melted really quick. 09-10 was a cooler than normal winter but it was far from cold. 02-03 was downright cold and the colder than normal lasted through most of March. 

 

I'm not saying 09-10 wasn't ridiculously snowy because it was. But it wasn't a particularly cold winter at all overall. Those huge storms turned into frozen glop and then mashed potatoes and slush pretty quickly. At least in dc metro. You're in the mountains right? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No way that happened here.  We had snow on Dec 5 that was gone within a couple days, and  a lot of snow on Dec 19 that was washed away by the Dec 25/26 rainstorm.  Bare ground until the Jan 30 storm which ushered in the snowpack until late Feb.  Though snow piles persisted through much of March, the snow cover didn't even last 30 consecutive days IMBY.  We mainly missed the Feb 10 storm, and despite below average temps through most of Feb, the sun and wind did thier dirty work on the snowpack.

 

I think your location has a lot of elevation compared to us.  I see that your current temp is 21F, while it is 28 here.

 Either things are much different down your way, or your memory is failing you.

 

The December snow didn't leave until the massive rain right around MLK.  The Christmas rain actually started as freezing rain.  We then had a 2" snow on NYE.  The snow did completely disappear around Jan 15, but we then had snow again on Jan 21.  It hung around for about 2 or 3 days, and then the fun started the next weekend.  The ground was snow covered until about March 7 or 8.  In fact, it snowed right around the first of March.  It didn't amount to anything, but there was snow everywhere.

 

So, no we didn't have 71 straight days of snow cover, but we had much more than what you remember.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I recorded 62 days (in a 90-day period) in 2009-10 with at least an inch of snow on the ground. 16 in December, 16 in January, 25 in February, and 5 in March.

23 of those days had in excess of 12" of snow depth.  13 had more than 20"

The longest consecutive stretch was 28 days from 2/5 through 3/6.  Peak snow depth was 36" the morning of 2/11.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Either things are much different down your way, or your memory is failing you.

 

The December snow didn't leave until the massive rain right around MLK.  The Christmas rain actually started as freezing rain.  We then had a 2" snow on NYE.  The snow did completely disappear around Jan 15, but we then had snow again on Jan 21.  It hung around for about 2 or 3 days, and then the fun started the next weekend.  The ground was snow covered until about March 7 or 8.  In fact, it snowed right around the first of March.  It didn't amount to anything, but there was snow everywhere.

 

So, no we didn't have 71 straight days of snow cover, but we had much more than what you remember.

 

While I don't dispute my memory could be failing me :P , fortunately I kept a snow log for 09-10.  I can't seem to copy and paste from it into this thread but here is the synopsis of events:

 

Dec 5 - 4"

Dec 19 - 20"

Jan 30 - 4"

Feb 2 - 3"

Feb 5&6 - 26"

Feb 9&10 - 3"

 

I recorded no snow in Front Royal (where I lived at the time) on Dec 31, Jan 21, nor at the beginning of March.  Feb 9 and 10 was the last trace of snow there.  There was no freezing rain in FR on Christmas, it was 34F and raining at the onset.  Remember it very well due to the disappointment factor.  I remember being outside around mid-night Christmas morning sleigh-riding down my neighbors back yard while my gf finished wrapping my present (LCD TV) to place it under my tree..  The moon was bright and the temp was in the low-teens (frigid) and I remember thinking how awesome it was to play in what was still 10 - 12 " of snow (in protected areas) on Christmas Eve.  After that rainstorm that night and following day, almost no snow remained except in the sun-shaded areas, and even that was gone a day or two later.  The Feb snows were all gone from the ground by the end of the month.  Out your way the temps are cooler and there are many less hard surfaces which melt more easily than in the town of FR or Stephens City for that matter.  Even now, our snow is gone here while you still have cover.

 

Did anyone else in this forum recieve measurable snow on these three dates in question?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

December storm got washed away pretty bad before the end of the month. It poured rain on xmas. End of Jan - the 2 Feb storms was unreal but winter flipped like a switch shortly after. Considering how much snow it was it melted really quick. 09-10 was a cooler than normal winter but it was far from cold. 02-03 was downright cold and the colder than normal lasted through most of March. 

 

I'm not saying 09-10 wasn't ridiculously snowy because it was. But it wasn't a particularly cold winter at all overall. Those huge storms turned into frozen glop and then mashed potatoes and slush pretty quickly. At least in dc metro. You're in the mountains right? 

 

 

It was a pretty cold winter (along the lines of -1, 0, -4), but even that isn't very cold in the lower altitudes of the mid-Atlantic.  The Dec 19/20th storm's snowfall at DCA, IAD and my backyard was completely washed out by the xmas rain.  There was only one day of snow cover in Jan until the storm on the 30th.  And then after the big storms, it was basically gone except the piles by the last week of Feb.  DCA had 30 days with 1"+ snowcover, and IAD/BWI had 36.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While I don't dispute my memory could be failing me :P , fortunately I kept a snow log for 09-10.  I can't seem to copy and paste from it into this thread but here is the synopsis of events:

 

Dec 5 - 4"

Dec 19 - 20"

Jan 30 - 4"

Feb 2 - 3"

Feb 5&6 - 26"

Feb 9&10 - 3"

 

I recorded no snow in Front Royal (where I lived at the time) on Dec 31, Jan 21, nor at the beginning of March.  Feb 9 and 10 was the last trace of snow there.  There was no freezing rain in FR on Christmas, it was 34F and raining at the onset.  Remember it very well due to the disappointment factor.  I remember being outside around mid-night Christmas morning sleigh-riding down my neighbors back yard while my gf finished wrapping my present (LCD TV) to place it under my tree..  The moon was bright and the temp was in the low-teens (frigid) and I remember thinking how awesome it was to play in what was still 10 - 12 " of snow (in protected areas) on Christmas Eve.  After that rainstorm that night and following day, almost no snow remained except in the sun-shaded areas, and even that was gone a day or two later.  The Feb snows were all gone from the ground by the end of the month.  Out your way the temps are cooler and there are many less hard surfaces which melt more easily than in the town of FR or Stephens City for that matter.  Even now, our snow is gone here while you still have cover.

 

Did anyone else in this forum recieve measurable snow on these three dates in question?

Yes, I'm almost sure you would have seen a bit of snow on the overnight/morning of 12/31. That was a widespread snow to sleet to rain storm for the suburbs. We got 1" of snow/sleet before the switch just outside the Beltway in Montgomery County, MD.

 

Another measurable snow you could have gotten was a half-inch or so on 2/15.

 

And, 1/7-8 was a clipper 1-2" across the entire DC-Baltimore metro region, so I would be surprised if Front Royal missed out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While I don't dispute my memory could be failing me :P , fortunately I kept a snow log for 09-10.  I can't seem to copy and paste from it into this thread but here is the synopsis of events:

 

Dec 5 - 4"

Dec 19 - 20"

Jan 30 - 4"

Feb 2 - 3"

Feb 5&6 - 26"

Feb 9&10 - 3"

 

I recorded no snow in Front Royal (where I lived at the time) on Dec 31, Jan 21, nor at the beginning of March.  Feb 9 and 10 was the last trace of snow there.  There was no freezing rain in FR on Christmas, it was 34F and raining at the onset.  Remember it very well due to the disappointment factor.  I remember being outside around mid-night Christmas morning sleigh-riding down my neighbors back yard while my gf finished wrapping my present (LCD TV) to place it under my tree..  The moon was bright and the temp was in the low-teens (frigid) and I remember thinking how awesome it was to play in what was still 10 - 12 " of snow (in protected areas) on Christmas Eve.  After that rainstorm that night and following day, almost no snow remained except in the sun-shaded areas, and even that was gone a day or two later.  The Feb snows were all gone from the ground by the end of the month.  Out your way the temps are cooler and there are many less hard surfaces which melt more easily than in the town of FR or Stephens City for that matter.  Even now, our snow is gone here while you still have cover.

 

Did anyone else in this forum recieve measurable snow on these three dates in question?

 

We did better on the Feb 9th-10th storm than you. The southern cutoff was just about the southern edge of Winchester. And Martinsburg did much better than us. I logged snow showers on Dec. 31st and Jan 20th. But I do not have any record of snow in March. Could be I was actually sick of the stuff by that point :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JI, don't look at today's CFS2 weekiy forecast....I said, don't look!

 

why...nobody is expecting cold to come in till Jan 20. CFS2 shows that nicely

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We did better on the Feb 9th-10th storm than you. The southern cutoff was just about the southern edge of Winchester. And Martinsburg did much better than us. I logged snow showers on Dec. 31st and Jan 20th. But I do not have any record of snow in March. Could be I was actually sick of the stuff by that point :)

 

You guys have forgotten the storm on Jan 20th of that year.  We were in the medium chance for 4+ from HPC.  We ended up with a mixture of sleet and snow for about an inch.  It was a pretty organized storm, just didn't have much cold to work with.

 

Actually it was Thurs. Jan 21 (that night)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You know it's bad bad bad when all the discussion in this thread is centered around 09-10. 

 

Analysis: Euro says wait for it...wait for it...w..a..i..t...f..o..r...i..t

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro is a straight up blowtorch next week.  Mid 60s for DC?

 

flamethrower3.jpg

 

 

otoh, it does show the cold coming from the west and headed east after Day 10 just like the GFS

fwiw, of course

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eh...seasonable at best.  Longwave pattern is not ideal for a BN pattern for us, maybe seasonable.  Storm track still north/west.  GFS ensembles are much less torchy for next week, although still look above normal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless you are complete wx newb it's pretty obvious looking at all the data the pattern will suck up to around the 20th. Its that time frame we have to keep an eye on to see if we can get a change. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.