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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


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#211
Ian

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Pretty sure the region wide clipper was in 2011. It was a Friday night into Saturday morning deal. Several of us were on here watching it progress across the region via traffic cams. Came through Winchester about 5am. More like a quick moving snow front. If this is the one I'm thinking of.

 

No, there was a 'clipper' on at the time noted in 2010. It came late night. Probably just gets lost in the rest.. tho January wasn't that good :P



#212
Ian

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here are the obs for it: http://www.easternus...m/page__st__500

 

typical DC winter...

 

Posted 07 January 2010 - 06:44 AM

Once upon a time, this storm had the potential to be a MECS.

 

 

sadly my stellar posts seem to be gone but they are in some quotes



#213
WVclimo

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No, there was a 'clipper' on at the time noted in 2010. It came late night. Probably just gets lost in the rest.. tho January wasn't that good :P

There was some nice mainstem river flooding with the big, mild rainstorm during "cold week." 



#214
Ian

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There was some nice mainstem river flooding with the big, mild rainstorm during "cold week." 

 

The Jan 30 storm was a great event but the rest of the month was pretty lame. I think we were suppressed then warmed for a while. I remember it was almost 70 when I moved into my current place.. good timing.



#215
WinterWxLuvr

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Here is a pic from New Years morning of 2010.

Attached Images

  • 100_1660a.jpg


#216
WinterWxLuvr

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Here's one taken a couple days after Christmas.  Someone had mentioned that the rain on Christmas melted all of the snow.  It didn't here.

Attached Images

  • 100_1668a.jpg


#217
gymengineer

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It was a pretty cold winter (along the lines of -1, 0, -4), but even that isn't very cold in the lower altitudes of the mid-Atlantic.  The Dec 19/20th storm's snowfall at DCA, IAD and my backyard was completely washed out by the xmas rain.  There was only one day of snow cover in Jan until the storm on the 30th.  And then after the big storms, it was basically gone except the piles by the last week of Feb.  DCA had 30 days with 1"+ snowcover, and IAD/BWI had 36.

 

 

I know this wasn't your main point. It was other posters who brought this idea up about snow cover dwindling away after the big storm(s), BUT, from Ian and Kevin Ambroses' book, here are the resulting snow cover stats from DC's biggest snowstorms:

 

1) 1/1922- 28"- snow cover lasted 15 days

2) 2/1899- 20.5"- snow cover lasted 11 days

3) 2/1979- 18.7"- snow cover lasted 8 days

4) 2/2010- 17.8"- snow cover lasted 18 days (including the blizzard after of course)

5) 1/1996- 17.1"- snow cover lasted 13 days

6) 2/2003- 16.7"- snow cover lasted 9 days

7) 2/1983- 16.6"- snow cover lasted 8 days

8) 12/2009- 16.4"- snow cover lasted 7 days

9) 2/1936- 14.4"- snow cover lasted 10 days

10) 2/1958- 14.4"- snow cover lasted 8 days

 

Yes, you have to combine both storms from 2/2010, but the total from both storms (28.6") just barely outdid the Knickerbocker storm and yet the resulting snow cover lasted three more days at the warmer DCA site. I think it's a little harsh to downplay 18 straight days of snowcover at DCA, and much more in the suburbs, even if it resulted from 28.6" of snow in a week.

 

The other trend from the data makes sense-- after the big event, DC tends to experience a thaw or snowmelt through rain. None of these top 10 events made it to 20 days of snow cover, even ones immediately followed by bitter cold like 2/1958.  

A lot of these storms were preceded by other extended stretches of snow cover, but the 30 one-inch snow cover days DCA racked up in 09/10 beat the colder 02/03 (28) as well as 95/96 (25). 78/79 wasn't even close (23), and only '60/'61 (44) beat the total since the move to DCA. Thanks, Ian, for putting together the snow cover days stats.

 

Other conclusions from looking at the snow cover data:

1) Experiencing only 10-days of winter can still yield a great snow-cover stretch- '99/'00 with 20 days 1"+ at DCA.

2) December and early January moderate snows can be really durable- '89/'90 with 24 days 1"+ and '87/'88 with 22 days 1"+ at DCA.

3) Some of the winters with the most snow cover days did not have a single big (6"+) event during the season- e.g. '62/'63 (27), '76/'77 (24), '77/'78 (25), '89/'90 (24)



#218
WVclimo

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Gym,

 

Do you have stats for how long the snow cover lasted after the back-to-back big snows in Jan '87 ?  Seem to recall that huge snow pack shrinking really fast.



#219
gymengineer

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Gym,

 

Do you have stats for how long the snow cover lasted after the back-to-back big snows in Jan '87 ?  Seem to recall that huge snow pack shrinking really fast.

 

 

Yup, for the airports only, though- 1"+ snow cover days:

 

DCA- 13 days

IAD- 16 days

BWI- 13 days

 

Edited to add: These counts started at the first storm, not after the second storm.



#220
Ian

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Yup, for the airports only, though- 1"+ snow cover days:

 

DCA- 13 days

IAD- 16 days

BWI- 13 days

 

Edited to add: These counts started at the first storm, not after the second storm.

 

18 to 2 inches in 9 days after the second.. DC isn't all that good at holding snowcover. Then again who wants to keep that crap around for too long in a city. :P



#221
WVclimo

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Yup, for the airports only, though- 1"+ snow cover days:

 

DCA- 13 days

IAD- 16 days

BWI- 13 days

 

Edited to add: These counts started at the first storm, not after the second storm.

Thanks !  Much longer than I recalled.  I thought it was mostly gone by the following weekend.



#222
WinterWxLuvr

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euro weeklies now cold week 3 and 4 with PNA ridge ....go figure


Not surprising.

#223
gymengineer

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Thanks !  Much longer than I recalled.  I thought it was mostly gone by the following weekend.

 

I think 2/1979 would have been the most depressing if snow cover is your thing-- you had gigantic snowstorm on top of moderate snow on top of moderate snow in the midst of one of the greatest cold snaps ever for DC, with the highest ever daily snow depth at DCA after the the last storm (PDI). Then, after the big event ends, it all melts away in 6 days?



#224
WinterWxLuvr

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18 to 2 inches in 9 days after the second.. DC isn't all that good at holding snowcover. Then again who wants to keep that crap around for too long in a city. :P


Growing up in SWVA, I remember the Sunday after Thanksgiving 1977 getting 16 inches of snow, changed to rain, and had about 4 inches by morning.

#225
WinterWxLuvr

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I think 2/1979 would have been the most depressing if snow cover is your thing-- you had gigantic snowstorm on top of moderate snow on top of moderate snow in the midst of one of the greatest cold snaps ever for DC, with the highest ever daily snow depth at DCA after the the last storm (PDI). Then, after the big event ends, it all melts away in 6 days?


That was the only good thing about missing out on 3-1-2009. What was it in DC by the end of the week? 70?

#226
Ian

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Growing up in SWVA, I remember the Sunday after Thanksgiving 1977 getting 16 inches of snow, changed to rain, and had about 4 inches by morning.

 

That's fun.. I think most spots can get things like that tho that seems about as extreme as you get. DC's climo just doesn't support long snowcover overall. If we tended to get our biggest storms around now or earlier they might have more opportunity to stick around in marginal temps. Of course we'd still have to deal with cutters etc. By Feb 10-15 you're not keeping snow on the ground for long at DCA in full sun unless it's frigid. Of course from there on the odds of a big one drop pretty quick but it butts up right against out best snow climo at least longevitywise. I know a lot less about cold stretches etc than other stuff.. maybe because there's never been much reason to look into it of late. ;) Seems keeping it truly cold past a week is a problem just about anytime these days. But, again, unless you need crusty snow to make you feel better about winter.. let it disappear -- it gets gross fast here.



#227
WVclimo

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I think 2/1979 would have been the most depressing if snow cover is your thing-- you had gigantic snowstorm on top of moderate snow on top of moderate snow in the midst of one of the greatest cold snaps ever for DC, with the highest ever daily snow depth at DCA after the the last storm (PDI). Then, after the big event ends, it all melts away in 6 days?

Biggest drawback to the February blockbusters imo.  I did hold onto snow cover for 23 days here after VD 2007 though, but that was a different kind of event.



#228
RIC Airport

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January 1987 was one of the most impressive stretches of snow cover for Richmond in terms of depth. With very cold temperatures, including a below 0°F reading at the airport, snow cover officially lasted for 13 days. But, after the 2nd storm, the official depth at the airport was in excess of 12" for six straight days. Going back to 1920, snow this deep for such a lengthy time only occurred in late January 1940 after a 20" snowstorm which was also followed by very cold temperatures.



#229
gymengineer

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January 1987 was one of the most impressive stretches of snow cover for Richmond in terms of depth. With very cold temperatures, including a below 0°F reading at the airport, snow cover officially lasted for 13 days. But, after the 2nd storm, the official depth at the airport was in excess of 12" for six straight days. Going back to 1920, snow this deep for such a lengthy time only occurred in late January 1940 after a 20" snowstorm which was also followed by very cold temperatures.

 

Wow- even IAD only held on for 5-6 days (depending on if you count the morning at the snow's end).



#230
Ian

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This is for DC with up to 1" snow accum thru Dec then for rest of yr.  Avgs in the set mostly run 80-90% norm. .2 avg is 107%! ;)

 

edit: tried code but it was messed up so here's a screencap. based off current norm of 15.4 / yr.

 

Untitled-10.jpg



#231
Bob Chill

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Looks nice Ian....until you set the oldest date to 1990...

#232
usedtobe

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This isn't 2011-12 or 2001-02...the cold is coming...may take until 15th-20th....the snow I'm not sure, but we need the cold 1st and we will get it

 

I think it will be little after Jan 15 but the cross polar flow will bring down high pressure.  The mean trough is stil far enough west on Jan 15 or so that I think the real cold will be in the middle of the country and will have to work its way east though shallow cold air could slip by us even with above normal heights. 



#233
Ian

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Looks nice Ian....until you set the oldest date to 1990...


Don't make me play the optimist. It won't end well.

#234
Bob Chill

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Don't make me play the optimist. It won't end well.


Lol- it is kinda stark though isn't it? Only one above climo in the set post 1990? I had just moved back here in 99 from CO so I wasn't really paying much mind that winter but didn't most of the snow in 99-00 come in one storm?

I agree with your posts about losing out on the margins. Turns on later and shuts off earlier on average. Things are different now than when I grew up here. I lived in md from 72-92 before moving away for a bit. Its not the same.

#235
Ian

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Lol- it is kinda stark though isn't it? Only one above climo in the set post 1990? I had just moved back here in 99 from CO so I wasn't really paying much mind that winter but didn't most of the snow in 99-00 come in one storm?

I agree with your posts about losing out on the margins. Turns on later and shuts off earlier on average. Things are different now than when I grew up here. I lived in md from 72-92 before moving away for a bit. Its not the same.

 

Overall our (DCA) odds aren't that fantastic to hit avg from here out it would seem. Though perhaps that's not the realistic target we should be aiming for. I'm probably low-balling but as I said the other day I'd be somewhat OK with like ~6" if we get one that's like ~3" out of that. 

 

Untitled-11.gif



#236
mitchnick

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interesting run of the 0Z GFS

it brings a nice vortex over Hudson Bay after 220 hrs which brings the cold back and a chance of snow, but then at the end of the run it retrogrades the -NAO and builds a decent ridge over Hudson Bay

can't recall seeing that before (so maybe it means it won't happen) but interesting nonetheless

any met care to chime in on the consequences of that kind of set up, if true, stormwise? thanks in advance



#237
Ji

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gfs blowtorch is as brief as a blowtorch can get. would almost guarantee cfs2 prediction

#238
mitchnick

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gfs blowtorch is as brief as a blowtorch can get. would almost guarantee cfs2 prediction

 

careful what you wish for

along with the below normal temps for JAN from the CFS2 come below normal precip

it would be a hollow weenie victory



#239
Ji

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u need the cold. below average precip can still deliver if cold

#240
Ian

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u need the cold. below average precip can still deliver if cold

 

or we'll get suppression for a few weeks followed by a cutter. ;)



#241
Bob Chill

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I gotta side with Ji on this. We average what? Like 3" of precip or so in Jan? I'll take 50% of normal and even give up a half inch of pure rain. That gives us an inch @ 12-1 ratios and the local papers will be full of public nudity arrests and our forum will be radio silent until everyone posts bail.

#242
H2O

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Looks nice Ian....until you set the oldest date to 1990...

 

97-98 looks epic



#243
EastCoast NPZ

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Here is a pic from New Years morning of 2010.

 

I really need to move out your way.  I assure you it looked nothing like that at my house in FR that day.



#244
EastCoast NPZ

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here are the obs for it: http://www.easternus...m/page__st__500

 

typical DC winter...

 

Posted 07 January 2010 - 06:44 AM

Once upon a time, this storm had the potential to be a MECS.

 

 

sadly my stellar posts seem to be gone but they are in some quotes

 

Good reading, thanks for that.  There are statements from LWX just prior to the event talking of the dry slot invading areas west of the blue ridge and your own post regarding poor-looking radar.  I would conclude then I was dry-slotted in FR; hence, received >1" of snow and did not record.  A storm moving west-to-east passing even a little north of us is certain death in these parts.  I'm more sure than ever that this was a non-event in my location.



#245
mitchnick

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Good reading, thanks for that.  There are statements from LWX just prior to the event talking of the dry slot invading areas west of the blue ridge and your own post regarding poor-looking radar.  I would conclude then I was dry-slotted in FR; hence, received >1" of snow and did not record.  A storm moving west-to-east passing even a little north of us is certain death in these parts.  I'm more sure than ever that this was a non-event in my location.

 

BWI received 1.8" out of that and I have absolutely no recollection of that event

just goes to show how one gets complacent with small snow events in a monster year like 09/10





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