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Pattern Changing: Early December threats?


ORH_wxman

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The good news is it's still a little early and hopefully things can change as we head into December but I don't think this is a year where things become better as we go along. If the Nina does continue to strengthen over the next few weeks, which it looks like it may it's just going to continue to make the PNA tank negative and the Euro has been really insisting that we see a raging +EPO...these are not good things.

True it is still early. I honestly don't know a whole lot about forecasting never mind trying to figure out the long range. Im just a weenie who enjoys the extremes of weather when it dishes it out. Its a long winter and I am not really sure what it has in store. It might be epic, it might start out fast and then fade or it might not do much from start to finish. I think I am just gona take it several days at a time and just ride with it. I think its alot less stressfull LOL, in the end im pritty sure we all will get our chances at some point. Some might strikeout, while others cash in. If we get a coastal hugger obviously I won't be in a great spot but, I am sure all of us will get in on the fun at some point.

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I'm blocked at work now and its harder to write long posts on a phone

Read the first post of this thread.

Pretty hard to call it a bust on Nov 22nd...especially when it was specifically said in the first post "this was never going to be the Siberian Express"....we're looking for some early December snow threats out of this pattern.

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Some of it is front loaded with the torch today and tomorrow

It also doesn't include any days past Dec 1st...I think our coldest weather might be after that time. Not necessarily arctic, but I could see a general below avg regime through the 10th.

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Read the first post of this thread.

Pretty hard to call it a bust on Nov 22nd...especially when it was specifically said in the first post "this was never going to be the Siberian Express"....we're looking for some early December snow threats out of this pattern.

No one is calling it a bust yet, just the hype of this being a pattern change may be prematue and I'm not just talking about this weknd

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It also doesn't include any days past Dec 1st...I think our coldest weather might be after that time. Not necessarily arctic, but I could see a general below avg regime through the 10th.

And that is all we can probably expect with this pattern, Does not mean we can't get snow out of it, This was not going to be a cut or dry winter pattern from the get go so there will be more uncertainty in the weeks and months ahead it seems.

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LOL - best post in this thread since it when way off tangent in the last 18 hours.

I resent that. I analyzed the models as best I could. Nothing more, nothing less. My thoughts for the upcoming storm this week are panning out. Early December is still up in the air. I do think we see some frozen precip. though. Details to be determined. My best guess is the first system around the 1st of Dec has a primary storm over the GL with a secondary that traverses over New England. This sets up a 50-50 low that prevents the follow-up storm ~Dec 5th from cutting west of us and gives us a classic Miller B with secondary development off the Delmarva. First widespread storm of the year. May I crash and burn with my thoughts or rise victorious.

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Regarding the Canadian temp map posted a while back...here are the Canadian day 8 analogs rolled forward 4 days to get a peak of the pattern right near and after that D10 period

compday6618977100325175.gif

Pretty classic Nina RNA/-EPO pattern...but with a piece of the NAO block getting retrograded to near Baffin Island.

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I resent that. I analyzed the models as best I could. Nothing more, nothing less. My thoughts for the upcoming storm this week are panning out. Early December is still up in the air. I do think we see some frozen precip. though. Details to be determined. My best guess is the first system around the 1st of Dec has a primary storm over the GL with a secondary that traverses over New England. This sets up a 50-50 low that prevents the follow-up storm ~Dec 5th from cutting west of us and gives us a classic Miller B with secondary development off the Delmarva. First widespread storm of the year. May I crash and burn with my thoughts or rise victorious.

:rolleyes: Old man

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It also doesn't include any days past Dec 1st...I think our coldest weather might be after that time. Not necessarily arctic, but I could see a general below avg regime through the 10th.

I hope so. It would be awful if we only see a handful of below normal days out of this whole period before things flip warm mid December

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I hope so. It would be awful if we only see a handful of below normal days out of this whole period before things flip warm mid December

There's no guarantee of that either.

There's clearly a lot of conflicting signals going on and its really killing the consistency of model guidance.

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I resent that. I analyzed the models as best I could. Nothing more, nothing less. My thoughts for the upcoming storm this week are panning out. Early December is still up in the air. I do think we see some frozen precip. though. Details to be determined. My best guess is the first system around the 1st of Dec has a primary storm over the GL with a secondary that traverses over New England. This sets up a 50-50 low that prevents the follow-up storm ~Dec 5th from cutting west of us and gives us a classic Miller B with secondary development off the Delmarva. First widespread storm of the year. May I crash and burn with my thoughts or rise victorious.

sorry dude.

that wasn't aimed at you. and it was light-hearted anyway. though i admit, it would nice if specific threads could stay on topic a bit more. 75 % of the posts in here could probably be eliminated...not that they are bad or stupid or anything...just back and forth stuff that's not pertinent.

whatever. no big deal.

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