Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[powderfreak]

It will come.

lol I know... just playing devils advocate. I'm not too worried... doesn't look as favorable as it did a couple days ago but its winter. It will snow at some point. I'm getting sick of these little trace to 1" events though, anxiously awaiting our first serious snow.

[weatherwiz]

There's no guarantee of that either.

There's clearly a lot of conflicting signals going on and its really killing the consistency of model guidance.

Alot is going to depend on what the NAO does...how strongly negative it can become and where it sets up. I think our winter state all depends on this.

[Damage In Tolland]

There's no guarantee of that either.

There's clearly a lot of conflicting signals going on and its really killing the consistency of model guidance.

I wish we could go back to the old days of forecasting when there were no models..and people just forecast based on pattern recognition, nature, and if their weenies were hanging low or not. All the modelling we have today seems to add more confusion than it offers assistance

[weatherwiz]

I wish we could go back to the old days of forecasting when there were no models..and people just forecast based on pattern recognition, nature, and if their weenies were hanging low or not. All the modelling we have today seems to add more confusion than it offers assistance

What?

[Baroclinic Zone]

I wish we could go back to the old days of forecasting when there were no models..and people just forecast based on pattern recognition, nature, and if their weenies were hanging low or not. All the modelling we have today seems to add more confusion than it offers assistance

Well you certainly could not do much forecasting without computer models to any great degree of accuracy, that's for sure. I agree that there are way more models than necessary and you need to know what to look for.

[CoastalWx]

I wish we could go back to the old days of forecasting when there were no models..and people just forecast based on pattern recognition, nature, and if their weenies were hanging low or not. All the modelling we have today seems to add more confusion than it offers assistance

I think some of it comes from misinterpretation. Somebody might post the euro looks horrible, and next thing you know, everyone heads for the Tappan Zee Bridge, when in fact..they were just saying how it looks. Perhaps we can just give our thoughts if they look right or not after the runs end...but it all gets lost when people lock in 6-12" anyways, or comment how the ridge over Pago Pago looks like it will lead to a huge west coast trough 15 days from now.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think some of it comes from misinterpretation. Somebody might post the euro looks horrible, and next thing you know, everyone heads for the Tappan Zee Bridge, when in fact..they were just saying how it looks. Perhaps we can just give our thoughts if they look right or not after the runs end...but it all gets lost when people lock in 6-12" anyways, or comment how the ridge over Pago Pago looks like it will lead to a huge west coast trough 15 days from now.

it'll be nice when we get closer to some actual events so everyone's time/energy is focused on specific threats.

[ORH_wxman]

I wish we could go back to the old days of forecasting when there were no models..and people just forecast based on pattern recognition, nature, and if their weenies were hanging low or not. All the modelling we have today seems to add more confusion than it offers assistance

Well if it was the old days, we'd still have people thinking we could get a snowstorm on Friday.

The only reason it feels like more confusion is because we are attempting to forecast further and further out. But LR stuff should be taken with a grain of salt all the time, even if there seems to be decent agreement on models/mets.

I think I made the Nov 2008 analogy back on eastern...there was a one week period around this time that year where it almost looked like a lock that we would see a monster arctic outbreak in December and 1983 was being thrown around as a good analog. In just a few days, the whole setup fell apart and then it looked like a pretty bland December temp-wise....I think we ended up like +1 that month, but we had over 30" of snow and a ridiculous ice storm.

Sometimes the seemingly more "bland" look can be better off. I remember even you were hanging yourself by early December saying we might torch through Christmas.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well if it was the old days, we'd still have people thinking we could get a snowstorm on Friday.

The only reason it feels like more confusion is because we are attempting to forecast further and further out. But LR stuff should be taken with a grain of salt all the time, even if there seems to be decent agreement on models/mets.

I think I made the Nov 2008 analogy back on eastern...there was a one week period around this time that year where it almost looked like a lock that we would see a monster arctic outbreak in December and 1983 was being thrown around as a good analog. In just a few days, the whole setup fell apart and then it looked like a pretty bland December temp-wise....I think we ended up like +1 that month, but we had over 30" of snow and a ridiculous ice storm.

Sometimes the seemingly more "bland" look can be better off. I remember even you were hanging yourself by early December saying we might torch through Christmas.

Well yeah i tend to ebb and flow with the models..I readily admit..that's why I 'm down somewhat today. My weenie says cold and snow are coming..my mind says the NAO breakdown and PAC jet and the fact it's a strong nina says Scooter's caution crusade is probably the smart way to go

[cpickett79]

the 18z gfs did seem to show a cooler/moister pattern on friday afternoon......with some qpf hanging back on 5340 heights ....again no conisistency but just putting it out there.....nothing big just an obs.

high DP's tonite .....wonder how that 3 inch wa wa snowpack will do tommorrow. Also don't want yo yo temps this winter.....droppin $$ on pass and then havin bare ground will bite.

[CoastalWx]

Well yeah i tend to ebb and flow with the models..I readily admit..that's why I 'm down somewhat today. My weenie says cold and snow are coming..my mind says the NAO breakdown and PAC jet and the fact it's a strong nina says Scooter's caution crusade is probably the smart way to go

I don't envy the long range people forecasting at all right now. They have one heck of a job on their hands.

I just have a "whatever happens... happens" approach to this. I'm not sold on Jan and Feb torch where we go snowless. We are less than three days from Thanksgiving, but it feels like mid January 2007 on here. This is perfectly fine if things get pushed back into December. Just get it over with now.

There are basically two players right now. The GOA tendency for troughing, and the- NAO ridging. Both are dueling it out right now, but I think more often than not, the risk is to the warmer side for the East Coast in setups like this. Note I said risk, because if the GOA low weakens or retrogrades, or this block tries to push further sw, I think the tendency would perhaps be on the cooler side for the East. However, that block could also be the instigator for a period of wintry weather, despite a lackluster Pacific setup. The changes in the ensembles that Will pointed out show us how volatile the pattern is. Models are clueless it seems, with all this blocking and how one little change here or there has a huge domino effect on the pattern 3-4 days down the road.

[cpickett79]

not sure how accurate 2m srefs are but they have 0c 2m temps at 21z WED.. just north of mass border ....cept over SE NH.....pretty cold for middle of day.

also coastal why would you say

" I'm not sold on Jan and Feb torch where we go snowless" obviously an exaggeration....but do you think odds are we are below in that time frame? regardless of others claims.

[CoastalWx]

not sure how accurate 2m srefs are but they have 0c 2m temps at 21z WED.. just north of mass border ....cept over SE NH.....pretty cold for middle of day.

also coastal why would you say

" I'm not sold on Jan and Feb torch where we go snowless" obviously an exaggeration....but do you think odds are we are below in that time frame? regardless of others claims.

No, I don't think the odds are below normal. I think we see a warm period, but I'm not sure of the 6-8 week torch spells that some are going for. It could end up warmer than normal sure, but that doesn't mean our snow has to suck.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah dude..nowhere near 60 here. High was 55.4. On the way home on 291 in South Windsor my car thermo hit 63

South Windsor was not that warm maybe 40 ok

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah dude..nowhere near 60 here. High was 55.4. On the way home on 291 in South Windsor my car thermo hit 63

51.9 for the HI here.

50.2\49

[cpickett79]

Will do you see the pacific becoming more co-operative anywhere on the euro weeklies?

[ORH_wxman]

No, I don't think the odds are below normal. I think we see a warm period, but I'm not sure of the 6-8 week torch spells that some are going for. It could end up warmer than normal sure, but that doesn't mean are snow has to suck.

Dec 2008 is a good recent example...we couldn't sustain anything that month. Very up and down with torches and very cold spells. BOS averaged like +1 but had over 25" of snow.

We might be more up and down than we first thought coming into the month, but we'll only be able to see as we get closer. I still think at some point a piece of that NAO ridge is going to get sucked back to the west and at least temporarily block the pattern, but I could be wrong.

[ORH_wxman]

Guys keep, the temp talk for today/tomorrow in the obs thread.

[CoastalWx]

Dec 2008 is a good recent example...we couldn't sustain anything that month. Very up and down with torches and very cold spells. BOS averaged like +1 but had over 25" of snow.

We might be more up and down than we first thought coming into the month, but we'll only be able to see as we get closer. I still think at some point a piece of that NAO ridge is going to get sucked back to the west and at least temporarily block the pattern, but I could be wrong.

It only takes a 10-14 day active stretch to rocket people above normal for snow. I remember the ups and downs of '08..wondering what in the sam hell would happen..and then boom, crushed with snow. Dec '08 holds a special place in my heart, because I got engaged right in the middle of the three day snowy period.

[nzucker]

It's just never correct to bet against the Pacific, and this is going to be a nasty Pacific pattern for a while. I'll believe the idea of a pattern change when I see a -EPO or +PNA block starting to develop, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Having a -NAO with a piss-poor Pacific is not going to create great snow opportunities for SNE in late November and early December. I think people are also forgetting that snow isn't climatologically common in early December; we just believe it is because it's happened to be a good period the last several years...the first storms being around the 5th to the 8th and then another set around the 19th to the 21st. Reality is I have a hard time taking interest in winter weather here until mid December unless a GREAT pattern is showing up in the models.

[nzucker]

It only takes a 10-14 day active stretch to rocket people above normal for snow. I remember the ups and downs of '08..wondering what in the sam hell would happen..and then boom, crushed with snow. Dec '08 holds a special place in my heart, because I got engaged right in the middle of the three day snowy period.

Yes, but weak Niña winters tend to be snowy and cold with the good patterns coming in bunches, and then periods of lakes cutters and mildness. I just don't have the same faith when we are talking about a strong ENSO event. We also have a +QBO now which isn't going to help things as the PV develops.

[cpickett79]

ok .....as Nzucker brings up

do we have any historical analogs of a pacific jet THIS strong ....with PNA/EPO similarities...producing snow of decent totals in DEC for SNE....REgardless of -NAO or not? i had to ask

seems relevent

[OKpowdah]

Guys keep, the temp talk for today/tomorrow in the obs thread.

C'mon guys, this isn't hard:

Torch discussion is in the Obs thread,

Wind driven rain talk is in the Post Turkey Day thread,

and end of winter discussion is in the Early December thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It only takes a 10-14 day active stretch to rocket people above normal for snow. I remember the ups and downs of '08..wondering what in the sam hell would happen..and then boom, crushed with snow. Dec '08 holds a special place in my heart, because I got engaged right in the middle of the three day snowy period.

Cute.

[ORH_wxman]

It's just never correct to bet against the Pacific, and this is going to be a nasty Pacific pattern for a while. I'll believe the idea of a pattern change when I see a -EPO or +PNA block starting to develop, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Having a -NAO with a piss-poor Pacific is not going to create great snow opportunities for SNE in late November and early December. I think people are also forgetting that snow isn't climatologically common in early December; we just believe it is because it's happened to be a good period the last several years...the first storms being around the 5th to the 8th and then another set around the 19th to the 21st. Reality is I have a hard time taking interest in winter weather here until mid December unless a GREAT pattern is showing up in the models.

Dec 2007 had a big +NAO/-PNA pattern. Dec 2008 wasn't too different.

What about Dec 1970? That had a "horrendous" looking PAC (worse than this current setup) but a -NAO and is Boston's snowiest December on record.

[OKpowdah]

It only takes a 10-14 day active stretch to rocket people above normal for snow. I remember the ups and downs of '08..wondering what in the sam hell would happen..and then boom, crushed with snow. Dec '08 holds a special place in my heart, because I got engaged right in the middle of the three day snowy period.

awww

[CoastalWx]

Yes, but weak Niña winters tend to be snowy and cold with the good patterns coming in bunches, and then periods of lakes cutters and mildness. I just don't have the same faith when we are talking about a strong ENSO event. We also have a +QBO now which isn't going to help things as the PV develops.

We are in the early winter stages of a strong ENSO event that I think could have some surprises. Maybe it's a classic old school La Nina from 40-50 years ago. Or, it could be a torch 1998-2000 event. I'm in the belief that the coming La Ninas could act like the Ninas of old, but I could be wrong. We seem to be so sure that a strong PV and +QBO will lead to a raging +NAO. What happened in the strong ENSO events of 40-50 years ago? Why wasn't the NAO + back then? I understand the physics behind the reasons for what the QBO and PV can do, but clearly this didn't matter back then, and the NAO acted more independently.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are in the early winter stages of a strong ENSO event that I think could have some surprises. Maybe it's a classic old school La Nina from 40-50 years ago. Or, it could be a torch 1998-2000 event. I'm in the belief that the coming La Ninas could act like the Ninas of old, but I could be wrong. We seem to be so sure that a strong PV and +QBO will lead to a raging +NAO. What happened in the strong ENSO events of 40-50 years ago? Why wasn't the NAO + back then? I understand the physics behind the reasons for what the QBO and PV can do, but clearly this didn't matter back then, and the NAO acted more independently.

Agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think that we are going to end up with a decent pattern through out a good portion of the month, focused on the first half, but we are only realize a relatively modest amount of that potential.

[Mr Torchey]

I wonder if the gfs is understanding this complex pattern a little better than the Euro, especially D5+