Pattern Changing: Early December threats?

[nzucker]

Dec 2007 had a big +NAO/-PNA pattern. Dec 2008 wasn't too different.

What about Dec 1970? That had a "horrendous" looking PAC (worse than this current setup) but a -NAO and is Boston's snowiest December on record.

December 2007 did have some ridging in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic so there's hints of a -EPO pattern there.

I'm not saying New England can't get snow in a -PNA/-NAO pattern. But I think people were being premature since it's much more likely a modest-mediocre pattern produces snow in the second half of December than around Thanksgiving or the first few days of meteorological winter. There was a rush to define a pattern change towards cold and snowy which I have constantly been warning about. And doesn't it worry you that every event trends towards a lakes cutter? First it was going to be a potential Thanksgiving snowstorm, that turned into a cutter. Now the next one is turning into a cutter with massive SE ridging...

We are in the early winter stages of a strong ENSO event that I think could have some surprises. Maybe it's a classic old school La Nina from 40-50 years ago. Or, it could be a torch 1998-2000 event. I'm in the belief that the coming La Ninas could act like the Ninas of old, but I could be wrong. We seem to be so sure that a strong PV and +QBO will lead to a raging +NAO. What happened in the strong ENSO events of 40-50 years ago? Why wasn't the NAO + back then? I understand the physics behind the reasons for what the QBO and PV can do, but clearly this didn't matter back then, and the NAO acted more independently.

Not all of the La Niña of old were that great...I don't think winters like 54-55 and 73-74 were much to write home about for New England.

[Mr Torchey]

Heavy heavy libations in Litchfield

Not a single one actually, just thought I would lighten up the tone, funny thing is when the Euro comes out with a much friendlier solution, the tone and attitude of these threads will change on a dime.

Happens almost everyday, and is very entertaining to watch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

December 2007 did have some ridging in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic so there's hints of a -EPO pattern there.

I'm not saying New England can't get snow in a -PNA/-NAO pattern. But I think people were being premature since it's much more likely a modest-mediocre pattern produces snow in the second half of December than around Thanksgiving or the first few days of meteorological winter. There was a rush to define a pattern change towards cold and snowy which I have constantly been warning about. And doesn't it worry you that every event trends towards a lakes cutter? First it was going to be a potential Thanksgiving snowstorm, that turned into a cutter. Now the next one is turning into a cutter with massive SE ridging...

Not all of the La Niña of old were that great...I don't think winters like 54-55 and 73-74 were much to write home about for New England.

No one with half a clue seriously and honestly thought that the majority of sne had a good shot of a snow event with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not a single one actually, just thought I would lighten up the tone, funny thing is when the Euro comes out with a much friendlier solution, the tone and attitude of these threads will change on a dime.

Happens almost everyday, and is very entertaining to watch.

I said the same thing in a post earlier today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does it turn anyone else's stomach when socks carries on with Will and honestly thinks that he's right.....that is one course that they need to offer in college.

[weatherwiz]

December 2007 did have some ridging in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic so there's hints of a -EPO pattern there.

I'm not saying New England can't get snow in a -PNA/-NAO pattern. But I think people were being premature since it's much more likely a modest-mediocre pattern produces snow in the second half of December than around Thanksgiving or the first few days of meteorological winter. There was a rush to define a pattern change towards cold and snowy which I have constantly been warning about. And doesn't it worry you that every event trends towards a lakes cutter? First it was going to be a potential Thanksgiving snowstorm, that turned into a cutter. Now the next one is turning into a cutter with massive SE ridging...

Not all of the La Niña of old were that great...I don't think winters like 54-55 and 73-74 were much to write home about for New England.

Both those years blew.

[Mr Torchey]

I actually feel bad for the mets on this board, day after day guys like will and scooter have been preaching, "can" "might" "maybe" "remember what time of year it is', yet they are totally misrepresented and misquoted and misunderstood. I think some of the blame lies with Mets liks JB, making claims that the 5 days after tday may be the coldest since 1989. People run with that, and honestly believe it.

I would imagine the places that are favored to have snow by mid december will, and those that are borderline are up in the air, we have been spoiled by some wonderful Decembers the past ten years.

[ORH_wxman]

December 2007 did have some ridging in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic so there's hints of a -EPO pattern there.

I'm not saying New England can't get snow in a -PNA/-NAO pattern. But I think people were being premature since it's much more likely a modest-mediocre pattern produces snow in the second half of December than around Thanksgiving or the first few days of meteorological winter. There was a rush to define a pattern change towards cold and snowy which I have constantly been warning about. And doesn't it worry you that every event trends towards a lakes cutter? First it was going to be a potential Thanksgiving snowstorm, that turned into a cutter. Now the next one is turning into a cutter with massive SE ridging...

Not all of the La Niña of old were that great...I don't think winters like 54-55 and 73-74 were much to write home about for New England.

That is precisely the reason I said the colder pattern and a snow threat likely wouldn't materialize until post-Thanksgiving to about Dec 10th...model guidance tends to rush these things. Not every snowy pattern is unblemished...Dec 2008 had a torching lakes cutter in between the Dec 19-21 and Dec 31 snow events. Dec 2007 tried to torch us with a lakes cutter on Dec 16, but a secondary formed just in the nick of time for most of SNE to keep them cold at the sfc.

It was already acknowledged that is pretty early for a large event, which is why I entioned somewhere in there about the first event would likely be a 1-4" type event. As we get closer to Dec 10th, climo would definitely help favor a bit of a bigger event if the pattern is still there or later.

And yes, we are aware that not every Nina was a good winter in New England.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Both those years blew.

I think Scott's point was that the majority of the Ninas in that era did not.

[ski MRG]

It's just never correct to bet against the Pacific, and this is going to be a nasty Pacific pattern for a while. I'll believe the idea of a pattern change when I see a -EPO or +PNA block starting to develop, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Having a -NAO with a piss-poor Pacific is not going to create great snow opportunities for SNE in late November and early December. I think people are also forgetting that snow isn't climatologically common in early December; we just believe it is because it's happened to be a good period the last several years...the first storms being around the 5th to the 8th and then another set around the 19th to the 21st. Reality is I have a hard time taking interest in winter weather here until mid December unless a GREAT pattern is showing up in the models.

Cool. See ya around X-mas.

[weatherwiz]

I think Scott's point was that the majority of the Ninas in that era did not.

I was just answering to whether or not those years blew...he said he didn't think they were anything to write home about.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was just answering to whether or not those years blew...he said he didn't think they were anything to write home about.

I think that question he posed was rhetorical in nature

He obviously knew that they blew.

[wokeupthisam]

That is precisely the reason I said the colder pattern and a snow threat likely wouldn't materialize until post-Thanksgiving to about Dec 10th...model guidance tends to rush these things. Not every snowy pattern is unblemished...Dec 2008 had a torching lakes cutter in between the Dec 19-21 and Dec 31 snow events. Dec 2007 tried to torch us with a lakes cutter on Dec 16, but a secondary formed just in the nick of time for most of SNE to keep them cold at the sfc.

It was already acknowledged that is pretty early for a large event, which is why I entioned somewhere in there about the first event would likely be a 1-4" type event. As we get closer to Dec 10th, climo would definitely help favor a bit of a bigger event if the pattern is still there or later.

And yes, we are aware that not every Nina was a good winter in New England.

The Grinch rides again! Yet every year, like Charlie Brown trying to kick that football, I get my hopes up that THIS year will time out for a Christmas Eve/Day snowstorm

[ski MRG]

Does it turn anyone else's stomach when socks carries on with Will and honestly thinks that he's right.....that is one course that they need to offer in college.

I like when he speaks with the confidence of a veteran forecaster with decades of experience under his belt. Unfortunately, he just started shaving in July.

[snywx]

I like when he speaks with the confidence of a veteran forecaster with decades of experience under his belt. Unfortunately, he just started shaving in July.

[nzucker]

I was just answering to whether or not those years blew...he said he didn't think they were anything to write home about.

I just think there's a widespread assumption on this board that the La Niñas of old were all good winters and that we'll see that type of La Niña this season due to the PDO/NAO phase. While some of this may be true, and most everyone believes this winter will be colder than torch Niñas like 99-00, there were plenty of stinker La Niñas back then too. 49-50, 50-51, 54-55, and 73-74 were all bad La Niña winters for SNE during that time period and decadal cycle. Why are people always focusing on 70-71 rather than 49-50? A lot of the old Niñas sucked folks.

I like when he speaks with the confidence of a veteran forecaster with decades of experience under his belt. Unfortunately, he just started shaving in July.

Dude quit it...we are having a discussion about meteorology here, no one is trying to be arrogant and everyone is sharing what they know/believe. In fact, it looks like my assertions about the coming pattern were more correct than many of the mets here, at least with what is being shown right now.

This from the guy who says it wasn't a hot summer when it was the 2nd warmest on record. What a joke this is.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Folks, we should keep it to a respectful, science based discussion. Name calling and disrespect make us look like the M/A

(wow, did I just type that???)

[Mr Torchey]

I just think there's a widespread assumption on this board that the La Niñas of old were all good winters and that we'll see that type of La Niña this season due to the PDO/NAO phase. While some of this may be true, and most everyone believes this winter will be colder than torch Niñas like 99-00, there were plenty of stinker La Niñas back then too. 49-50, 50-51, 54-55, and 73-74 were all bad La Niña winters for SNE during that time period and decadal cycle. Why are people always focusing on 70-71 rather than 49-50? A lot of the old Niñas sucked folks.

Dude quit it...we are having a discussion about meteorology here, no one is trying to be arrogant and everyone is sharing what they know/believe. In fact, it looks like my assertions about the coming pattern were more correct than many of the mets here, at least with what is being shown right now.

This from the guy who says it wasn't a hot summer when it was the 2nd warmest on record. What a joke this is.

wow zuckie?

[cpickett79]

and in this corner......

this reminds me of a sports team analogy that winning cures everything

Cold/snowy patterns do as well.......hurry up and get here winter

and Nzucker may be doing well with his calls...i'm not savvy enough to know wether his logic was sound * and yes we are not IN nevermind PAST the pattern change period yet and he did play the contrarian card but i think his posts have been pretty solid. Not gonna outsmart will but no one's gonna call everypattern right either.

heavy heavy winter pete was being funny .....for the most part i took it as a laugh not a low blow at all.

[ORH_wxman]

I just think there's a widespread assumption on this board that the La Niñas of old were all good winters and that we'll see that type of La Niña this season due to the PDO/NAO phase. While some of this may be true, and most everyone believes this winter will be colder than torch Niñas like 99-00, there were plenty of stinker La Niñas back then too. 49-50, 50-51, 54-55, and 73-74 were all bad La Niña winters for SNE during that time period and decadal cycle. Why are people always focusing on 70-71 rather than 49-50? A lot of the old Niñas sucked folks.

I made a thread back on eastern that had snowfall averages during different strengths of Ninas. It showed clearly that there was a risk we could see a poor winter. I don't think most people are blindly unaware to this fact...but if you look at the -NAO/-PNA type La Ninas, then they were very favorable so I think some see the lingering -NAO tendency as a good sign.

'49-'50 actually wasn't that bad in the interior. Only a shade below average.

But the '55-'56 period through '75-'76 definitely featured mostly good Nina winters for SNE, that is likely what Scott was referring to. The late '40s and early '50s was prior to the NAO going into its 20 year tank.

[nzucker]

I made a thread back on eastern that had snowfall averages during different strengths of Ninas. It showed clearly that there was a risk we could see a poor winter. I don't think most people are blindly unaware to this fact...but if you look at the -NAO/-PNA type La Ninas, then they were very favorable so I think some see the lingering -NAO tendency as a good sign.

'49-'50 actually wasn't that bad in the interior. Only a shade below average.

But the '55-'56 period through '75-'76 definitely featured mostly good Nina winters for SNE, that is likely what Scott was referring to. The late '40s and early '50s was prior to the NAO going into its 20 year tank.

Yes, I agree Will and mean no disrespect to you personally in these arguments/debates, which I hope you realize. As you know, I think you are a brilliant meteorologist and you have a much better understanding about your climo than I do. I just think there has to be a devil's advocate in most discussions, and I sincerely believe that some people, sometimes including you, were getting too aggressive about the pattern given what's happening on the Pacific side in terms of ENSO, the EPO/PNA, lack of MJO, etc. A rapidly cooling Pacific often spells trouble for the East Coast, and I don't like how anchored the tendency towards a GoA low is getting. We've also wiped out a massive negative departure in no time and are now in danger of finishing our 8th straight month with above average temperatures. It was 60 here today and will be the same tomorrow, and the models show another warm period emerging next week. I just see this classic cutter/cold/cutter regime emerging which is typical for a Niña.

49-50 was a bad winter for BOS but not as bad in the interior. Temperatures definitely got a bit too warm for my liking though...talk about a SE ridge:

I feel that analogs like 49-50, 50-51 and 54-55 are just as valid as citing 70-71 which many do. I wonder why we never hear about analogs like 50-51 and 73-74 as much 54-55 also had a -NAO block and was a first year Niña, like this one. It turned out pretty mediocre for the East Coast with below average snowfalls and above average temperatures. Not sure why people don't think that type of winter could repeat.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes, I agree Will and mean no disrespect to you personally in these arguments/debates, which I hope you realize. As you know, I think you are a brilliant meteorologist and you have a much better understanding about your climo than I do. I just think there has to be a devil's advocate in most discussions, and I sincerely believe that some people, sometimes including you, were getting too aggressive about the pattern given what's happening on the Pacific side in terms of ENSO, the EPO/PNA, lack of MJO, etc. A rapidly cooling Pacific often spells trouble for the East Coast, and I don't like how anchored the tendency towards a GoA low is getting. We've also wiped out a massive negative departure in no time and are now in danger of finishing our 8th straight month with above average temperatures. It was 60 here today and will be the same tomorrow, and the models show another warm period emerging next week. I just see this classic cutter/cold/cutter regime emerging which is typical for a Niña.

49-50 was a bad winter for BOS but not as bad in the interior. Temperatures definitely got a bit too warm for my liking though...talk about a SE ridge:

I feel that analogs like 49-50, 50-51 and 54-55 are just as valid as citing 70-71 which many do. I wonder why we never hear about analogs like 50-51 and 73-74 as much 54-55 also had a -NAO block and was a first year Niña, like this one. It turned out pretty mediocre for the East Coast with below average snowfalls and above average temperatures. Not sure why people don't think that type of winter could repeat.

I just think you are overrating the PAC pattern WRT New England snowfall chances. It can becoming so overwhelming in conjunction with a terrible Atlantic that we all get screwed like the late 90s Ninas. But I find that to be the exception rather than rule...usually its a lot more complicated than that.

As for '54-'55, it could happen again, but that would be a pretty tough repeat...a cold/-NAO La Nina that was terrible for snowfall here.

Also if you are going to delve into winters like '50-'51 and '54-'55 that were noticeably weaker than this current Nina, then we'll have to include '56-'57, '64-'65, and '71-'72.

[HoarfrostHubb]

How far back to we have data on this? Does it go before 1949?

[ORH_wxman]

How far back to we have data on this? Does it go before 1949?

Yeah but it gets much less reliable. We don't have upper air maps prior to then...but we do have some ENSO data (a lot more unreliable) and of course the older snowfall data.

1942-1943 has been a popular analog thrown around for the pre-1950 crowd.

[nzucker]

I just think you are overrating the PAC pattern WRT New England snowfall chances. It can becoming so overwhelming in conjunction with a terrible Atlantic that we all get screwed like the late 90s Ninas. But I find that to be the exception rather than rule...usually its a lot more complicated than that.

As for '54-'55, it could happen again, but that would be a pretty tough repeat...a cold/-NAO La Nina that was terrible for snowfall here.

Also if you are going to delve into winters like '50-'51 and '54-'55 that were noticeably weaker than this current Nina, then we'll have to include '56-'57, '64-'65, and '71-'72.

I am mostly talking about the importance of the Pacific pattern now when it's late November/early December and there's not much entrenched cold air or snow cover over the region to help migrate the baroclinic zone further south. The jet just naturally favors storms that track further north and cut a bit earlier in the season, which is why I want to see something other than miserable zonal flow on the Pacific side, which basically guarantees a warm lakes cutter in this pattern. I also think this is a much worse than average -PNA/+EPO that is making it hard to transport arctic air into the region...I mean look at how cold it's been out west and now that moves east as one day of -8C 850s? A little disturbing to me.

[ORH_wxman]

I am mostly talking about the importance of the Pacific pattern now when it's late November/early December and there's not much entrenched cold air or snow cover over the region to help migrate the baroclinic zone further south. The jet just naturally favors storms that track further north and cut a bit earlier in the season, which is why I want to see something other than miserable zonal flow on the Pacific side, which basically guarantees a warm lakes cutter in this pattern. I also think this is a much worse than average -PNA/+EPO that is making it hard to transport arctic air into the region...I mean look at how cold it's been out west and now that moves east as one day of -8C 850s? A little disturbing to me.

But the EPO isn't positive...it stays negative. It might not be the perfect raging -EPO, but its still creating cross polar flow which is why we keep seeing a hint of a reload sometime after Dec 2-3. It might not work out, but a Kamchatka ridge bending up north of the Bering sea is fine.

I'm not really disagreeing with your very general premise, but I think you are just overstating it. If there's some modified arctic around with a -NAO tendency over the first 10 days of Dec, that is a chance at snow in my book.

[Ginx snewx]

I like when he speaks with the confidence of a veteran forecaster with decades of experience under his belt. Unfortunately, he just started shaving in July.

You mean fortunately, LMAO at this one, true dat.

[nzucker]

But the EPO isn't positive...it stays negative. It might not be the perfect raging -EPO, but its still creating cross polar flow which is why we keep seeing a hint of a reload sometime after Dec 2-3. It might not work out, but a Kamchatka ridge bending up north of the Bering sea is fine.

I'm not really disagreeing with your very general premise, but I think you are just overstating it. If there's some modified arctic around with a -NAO tendency over the first 10 days of Dec, that is a chance at snow in my book.

How is this a -EPO pattern with a strong GoA low and a PV over Asia? Is it just because there's ridging over the Aleutians and Bering Strait that causes the EPO to be shown as negative? That wouldn't be such a favorable pattern for us I don't think, as it's basically what's happening this week with multiple shortwaves amplifying out west and then pumping up ridging ahead of them. I'd like to see that ridging shift east a bit so that we have a GoA High.

I sometimes wonder if the generalized indices like the NAO and EPO are calculated incorrectly. For example, a couple weeks ago the CPC showed a moderate -NAO when we had a PV over Greenland. That just seems weird to me and more like a +NAO pattern...HM said he agreed.

[weatherwiz]

GFS has a nice squall line potential on the 1st. Low topped squall line.

This should be an active winter severe wise in parts of the country.

[OKpowdah]

LOL another mammoth blizzard on the 7th.

There is a strong GFS perpetual long term blizzard signal