40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Oh I know... and while its too early to tell for sure (Phil is right, this is all speculation and it won't be till Dec 10 when we can really look back and analyze what happened), but there has certainly been a shifting in the past 48 hours of model runs that makes sustained cold unlikely. Sure some runs are still cold, but a few days ago it was pretty much every model run that had a very cold late Nov/early Dec signal. Now its like 25-50% of model runs showing it. So it still could happen but there are signs as of late that are a little disturbing. This is why I don't bother with long range progs; its a one-way ticket to the looney bin because you end up torturing yourself via microanalyzation of a pattern that is in a great deal of flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I never expected a great deal of snow in December anyway, but what I don't want to see is Sam and Rick (Logan11) fornicating amid 2' of mashies, while I lay pinned @ 32.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 and R. I would be fine with a total pattern fail; just not that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 This is why I don't bother with long range progs; its a one-way ticket to the looney bin because you end up torturing yourself via microanalyzation of a pattern this in a great deal of flux. This is probably the best way to go... haha. Unfortunately, its all we have to pay attention to right now. Its funny though from an emotional/psychology aspect because if 5 days ago the models were showing an all out torch for late Nov and early Dec, everyone would be in a much better mood right now WRT the upcoming pattern as the trend would've been colder. However, when the long range shows sustained cold, there's really only one way things can trend and that is warmer. I'd almost prefer the long range ensembles and deterministic solutions just show torch after torch because then you are mentally prepared for it and it can only trend colder, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 This is probably the best way to go... haha. Unfortunately, its all we have to pay attention to right now. Its funny though from an emotional/psychology aspect because if 5 days ago the models were showing an all out torch for late Nov and early Dec, everyone would be in a much better mood right now WRT the upcoming pattern as the trend would've been colder. However, when the long range shows sustained cold, there's really only one way things can trend and that is warmer. I'd almost prefer the long range ensembles and deterministic solutions just show torch after torch because then you are mentally prepared for it and it can only trend colder, lol. Employ the board as primarily a social institution until conditions merit; that is what I do....sports help, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I never expected a great deal of snow in December anyway, but what I don't want to see is Sam and Rick (Logan11) fornicating amid 2' of mashies, while I lay pinned @ 32.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 and R. I would be fine with a total pattern fail; just not that. Selfish thinking but I'm sure most of us can relate. This time of year everyone is so eager beaver to get snow that watching someone else get slammed seems harder to take. I like how you'll readily admit that you would rather everyone be 50F than watching 1,000ft+ get crushed... brutal honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Selfish thinking but I'm sure most of us can relate. This time of year everyone is so eager beaver to get snow that watching someone else get slammed seems harder to take. I like how you'll readily admit that you would rather everyone be 50F than watching 1,000ft+ get crushed... brutal honesty. Thats what I am all about; I also have more of a right to feel that way after last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Thats what I am all about; I also have more of a right to feel that way after last season. LOL. It's not a classic pattern coming up, but one that may have a goodie thrown in. That's about all you can say. My guess, is that we have to worry about storms coming too close for comfort or too mild(especially for eastern areas), but that doesn't mean you can't get a mild storm, followed by a mix to rain type deal, then finally a snow event. I could see something like that too. Like I said, I don't say "Oh sh*t" when I look at the pattern, and I'm pretty darn intrigued about that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I just want a natural south to north gradient. I don't get as angry about NNE and NY getting pummeled while I get ice/rain as I do about getting screwed on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Ok I've calmed down and collected my thoughts after taking the kids to the dentist I'm still not expecting too much from this pattern. Probably go below for a few days then above and back and forth with no sustained week long periods of below normal. MAybe we'll get a couple good snow threats thrown in if timing is right..but with the NAO breaking down after Dec 1st..I think this is the way to play it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Ok I've calmed down and collected my thoughts after taking the kids to the dentist I'm still not expecting too much from this pattern. Probably go below for a few days then above and back and forth with no sustained week long periods of below normal. MAybe we'll get a couple good snow threats thrown in if timing is right..but with the NAO breaking down after Dec 1st..I think this is the way to play it. You have a reasonable, rational post once every 3-6 months. This is one of them. I'll probably block you until March when you're next reasonable, rational post will appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 You have a reasonable, rational post once every 3-6 months. This is one of them. I'll probably block you until March when you're next reasonable, rational post will appear. Once the anxiety goes away its not all that bad......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 You have a reasonable, rational post once every 3-6 months. This is one of them. I'll probably block you until March when you're next reasonable, rational post will appear. Like you I fell into the trap of thinking we were looking at a sustained several week period of winter coming up. With the signs we've seen on the ensembles and op models the last few days of the NAO breaking down and a not as favorable look for us...it's probably the most likely outcome. As much as it pains me to say..it's better than tricking myself that we have weeks of snow and cold coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Like you I fell into the trap of thinking we were looking at a sustained several week period of winter coming up. With the signs we've seen on the ensembles and op models the last few days of the NAO breaking down and a not as favorable look for us...it's probably the most likely outcome. As much as it pains me to say..it's better than tricking myself that we have weeks of snow and cold coming I wasn't expecting a crazy sustained cold period... I was expecting 1-2 weeks of a below average pattern... likely with one or two warmups thrown in for good measure. Not at all surprised by the changes today always was in the cards IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Like you I fell into the trap of thinking we were looking at a sustained several week period of winter coming up. With the signs we've seen on the ensembles and op models the last few days of the NAO breaking down and a not as favorable look for us...it's probably the most likely outcome. As much as it pains me to say..it's better than tricking myself that we have weeks of snow and cold coming I don't think it's necessarily breaking down, it just seems to be shifting around a bit. It shifted a little more northeast and troughing out west trended stronger, so this led to a shift in about 150-200 miles in storm track. I'd wager that if we had this setup in a month, it would be more favorable. We have a pretty active trough/ridge/trough pattern right now, and I think a block like that may force storms south as wavelengths increase. Anytime you have a -pna and troughing that shows up in the GOA, the risk is always to the warmer..I think especially early in the season. If the block shifts more sw from Greenland, the risk would be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 This is why I don't bother with long range progs; its a one-way ticket to the looney bin because you end up torturing yourself via microanalyzation of a pattern that is in a great deal of flux. What do you mean? I promised my kids I'd go sledding with them on guaranteed snow that we're supposed to get somewhere in the 300-350 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 LOL. It's not a classic pattern coming up, but one that may have a goodie thrown in. That's about all you can say. My guess, is that we have to worry about storms coming too close for comfort or too mild(especially for eastern areas), but that doesn't mean you can't get a mild storm, followed by a mix to rain type deal, then finally a snow event. I could see something like that too. Like I said, I don't say "Oh sh*t" when I look at the pattern, and I'm pretty darn intrigued about that block. If you look at the 18z gfs op, you'll see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z GFS operational model, leads us to a rain, rain and then rain/mix to snow events process, trending colder by each storm. I think the period that is beginning to show stronger support for an actual snowstorm is around Dec 8th. This could be the storm we have been looking forward too. Again it is too far in the future to have any confidence in, but it is trending that way for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 LOL 18z GFS going back to back like Manny and Ortiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z GFS operational model, leads us to a rain, rain and then rain/mix to snow events process, trending colder by each storm. I think the period that is beginning to show stronger support for an actual snowstorm is around Dec 8th. This could be the storm we have been looking forward too. Again it is too far in the future to have any confidence in, but it is trending that way for now. It's just an idea, but sometimes things trend that way. Certainly doesn't mean it will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wow, what a total meltdown (npi) from Kevin. What's it gonna be Kev, cold snowy Winter or warm 2007ish type Winter, put your b*lls out like you ask others to do. Of course, I am unwavering in my thinking that in the final analysis this Winter will be a good snowy one. I bet Ginx and Jerry aren't running around like their hair is on fire screaming "It's over!! We're doomed!!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 LOL 18z GFS going back to back like Manny and Ortiz SOCKS WAS WRONG!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z GFS operational model, leads us to a rain, rain and then rain/mix to snow events process, trending colder by each storm. I think the period that is beginning to show stronger support for an actual snowstorm is around Dec 8th. This could be the storm we have been looking forward too. Again it is too far in the future to have any confidence in, but it is trending that way for now. I'm going to beat the rush, and say I think December 19th is the real threat for an actual snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z GFS operational model, leads us to a rain, rain and then rain/mix to snow events process, trending colder by each storm. I think the period that is beginning to show stronger support for an actual snowstorm is around Dec 8th. This could be the storm we have been looking forward too. Again it is too far in the future to have any confidence in, but it is trending that way for now. I think March 3 is starting to gain some steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I'm going to beat the rush, and say I think December 19th is the real threat for an actual snowstorm. I think March 3 is starting to gain some steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 man this thread has just fallen apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I'm going to beat the rush, and say I think December 19th is the real threat for an actual snowstorm. That's been a good date for the last 3 years..give or take a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 man this thread has just fallen apart. Rafters, everywhere. Chairs tipped over, cold dark room, looks like the last scene from Blair Witch project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Rafters, everywhere. Chairs tipped over, cold dark room, looks like the last scene from Blair Witch project. I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Geezus , WTF, lemmings led by a man of god, NOV 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I think March 3 is starting to gain some steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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